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What Happens Once the Oil Runs Out?
NY Times ^ | March 25, 2005 | KENNETH S. DEFFEYES

Posted on 03/25/2005 6:50:44 PM PST by neverdem

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To: Southack

It could be cheaper than that. Powder River Basin coal goes for < $10, fob the mine.


101 posted on 03/26/2005 5:28:34 AM PST by Eric in the Ozarks
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To: neverdem
Mr. Hubbert was so far left, he was a founding member of the Technocracy movement.

The Technocracy movement is still slightly active in California.
Their premise was that the engineers should be the dictators of America.
They were sure that all problems could be solved by technology.
Not enough public transportation, just put a trailer on the bus, etc.
102 posted on 03/26/2005 5:42:20 AM PST by HuntsvilleTxVeteran (When you compromise with evil, evil wins. AYN RAND)
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To: neverdem

"Although the geologists at the survey are widely respected, the upper ranges of their petroleum estimates for the refuge have drawn criticism, sometimes expressed as giggles, from other petroleum geologists."

This is a pretty good article. The author clearly advocates for clean coal energy as well as nuclear.

Coming from Princeton, he's probably been exposed to the lefts' tact of "giggling" down an argument instead of presenting opposing facts?

Personally, I'm tired of this petrol thing already. Time to get serious about an alternative.


103 posted on 03/26/2005 5:46:18 AM PST by Ramcat (Thank You American Veterans)
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To: John Lenin
If these morons had their way we would go back to 14th century living, burning coal to stay warm, chopping down trees so we could have fire to eat and open sewers to preserve the fresh water.

I always love how this romantic idea conveniently forgets that under such conditions the life expectancy will drop significantly. Guess it's hard to sell that idea with that caveat.
104 posted on 03/26/2005 6:40:19 AM PST by Thoro (Then an accidental overdose of gamma radiation alters his body chemistry....)
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To: Southack

We have been "running out of oil" since I was in college in the late 1950's. The bs nevers stops about oil.


105 posted on 03/26/2005 7:34:43 AM PST by Grampa Dave (The MSM has been a WMD, Weapon of Mass Disinformation for the Rats for at least 4 decades.)
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To: tacticalogic
Pooh would work. It is biomass and converts quite easily
My tagline takes exception to that.

so?


106 posted on 03/26/2005 7:38:31 AM PST by jongaltsr (Hope to See ya in Galt's Gultch.)
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To: dakine
What about shale in the U.S. Rockies, and the sand in Canada? A lot of oil, just not financially viable

There are 1.5 TRILLION barrels of oil in shale form in the U.S. That's 200 to 400 years of supply at today's use rate. It's a technological and logistical nightmare getting to it, but it can be done.

107 posted on 03/26/2005 7:38:35 AM PST by stboz
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To: Bars4Bill

I just happened to be an expert on oil & energy. The idiot is you, and the fat a$$ Rush who has been telling lies for years. If we did not get seduced into bigger and bigger SUVs, and if we did not help china and India to be big oil consuming nations, and if we did not disturb the oil production in Iraq, and Venezuela; we would not have suffered doubling of our energy bills. Wake up, and smell the coffee.


108 posted on 03/26/2005 7:49:15 AM PST by conservlib
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To: conservlib

Well, I just happen to be an expert on coffee. And there are some coffees that don't smell.


109 posted on 03/26/2005 8:27:35 AM PST by jimboster
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To: jimboster

Speaking of coffee, I think I need to make a fresh pot. Thanks for reminding me. Have a good day.


110 posted on 03/26/2005 9:01:24 AM PST by conservlib
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To: infocats
How can oil (organic) come from inorganic sources, reverse transmutation?

Haha.. no, technically I suppose it's always "organic" if it has many carbons. I don't know what chemical processes have been theorized that could make such oil, but they're out there if you search.

111 posted on 03/26/2005 9:58:53 AM PST by SteveMcKing
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To: neverdem

To be sure, market forces will determine what the next source of energy will be. In any event, proven oil reserves seem to increase through the years despite predictions of gloom and doom.


112 posted on 03/26/2005 10:05:51 AM PST by kabar
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To: Thoro
The most moderate greens, technocrat and scientific types mostly, want the equivalent of $200 a barrel oil in order to make solar power viable. They still want a technological civilization, but one run by planners and engineers, not companies. They are socialists and futurists, but not anti-technology.

The committed activist greens are more ideological than that, and are against modern technological civilization root and branch. They want a "die back" to hunter gatherer existence, a tenth the present population at most. It is "our" responsibility to other species. "We" are being selfish. Yada yada. 9/10ths of mankind dies, technology and science disappears, superstitious nature worship replaces it. (Just disinventing industry isn't enough; if science stays, it will come back. So science is an enemy too). That is their idea of utopia. (The unabomber was this nutty, if you want an example of the mindset. It is not rare).

The radical fringe thinks that isn't enough. They call mankind a cancer on the planet. Disinventing industry and science aren't enough, because they remain possible. Some future mankind might do it again and wreck the planet. Since the whole point of everything is to achieve a steady state in which nothing dynamic happens or has a history, to avoid this horrible possibility, a die back is insufficient. Mankind must be eradicated. They call themselves the "human extinction movement." Their fantasies center on mega plagues that wipe out mankind and let the birds and the fishes and the cute little bunny rabits have the place. (And the sharks - who are more principled and upbeat than this lot).

Green ideology is a layer cake of madness, with known mistakes based on economic errors on top, descending through simplistic superstitions and blather, arbitrarily far, into the bottomless pits of hatred, insanty and evil. It deserves frontal assault, not the coddling most pols treat it with.

113 posted on 03/26/2005 10:33:16 AM PST by JasonC
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To: conservlib
I just happened to be an expert on oil & energy. The idiot is you, and the fat a$$ Rush who has been telling lies for years. If we did not get seduced into bigger and bigger SUVs, and if we did not help china and India to be big oil consuming nations, and if we did not disturb the oil production in Iraq, and Venezuela; we would not have suffered doubling of our energy bills. Wake up, and smell the coffee.

Seduced into bigger and bigger SUVs? You mean giving the consumer what he wants. If SUVs prove to be uneconomical or undesireable for the consumer, there will a growing market for the alternatives. That's the way capitalism works. People make individual choices based on their individual circumstances.

"If we did not help China and India to be big oil consuming nations" How do we prevent them (representing one-third of the globe's population) from becoming more prosperous and bigger consumers of the world's resources? It is like holding back the tide. I guess it would be better also that Africa be thwarted in its economic development so its oil consumption is kept low. Such hubris, such folly.

Disturb the oil production in Iraq and Venezeula? This observation destroyed any pretense of your expertise on oil and energy. Iraq's oil infrastructure was a shambles and deteriorating under Saddam. Many real oil experts believe that Iraq's production can be raised significantly to almost twice it was producing before the war. With the second largest proven oil reserves and very low production costs for high grade oil, our intervention will eventually improve the world's supply of oil.

Venezuela's internal political problems are affecting oil production and sales by Venezuela, not the US. Venezuela supplies up to 15% of US oil imports and the US purchases up to 60% of Venezuela's oil output. Chavez announced that his government would begin to enforce the law passed in 2001 that calls for a dramatic increase in the royalties foreign corporations pay to the Venezuelan government for the extraction of oil inside Venezuela. ExxonMobil has denounced the increase and is considering mounting a legal challenge.

If it wasn't for the oil and gas technology, expertise, and investment of the West and the US, world oil production would be far lower and countries like Venezuela, Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq would not have benefitted from the wealth it has created. Stop blaming the US for everything that goes wrong in the world.

114 posted on 03/26/2005 10:38:58 AM PST by kabar
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To: SpinyNorman

Thanks for the info! I will definitely consider this for my next vehicle.


115 posted on 03/26/2005 12:52:45 PM PST by Avenger
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To: neverdem

And just to throw a Molotov cocktail onto the debate fire: there is a growing amount of evidence that oil is not derived from fossil decay, rather, it is welling up from deep in the Earth and is a byproduct of bacteria deep in the earth, that feed on the Earth's primordial hydrocarbons flowing up from the mantle and convert it to oil, natural gas. The processes by which petroleum, natural gas are formed is still a matter of controversy among geologists. One should do a search for the papers of one Dr. Thomas Gold of Cornell University (http://people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/usgs.html; http://people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/origins.html; his vita: http://people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/vita.html#T.%20Gold%20Vita, and a book, The Deep Hot Biosphere, published in 1999)
He died last year.

Remember that the notion that petroleum is derived from fossils originated in the 19th century, yet some scientists are now convinced that it was formed with the planet.

Sure it is contrary to predominant beliefs, but there are some bothersome points regarding how oil is formed and where it is found.

For example,

1) The refilling of supposedly depleted oil wells. There have been numerous reports in recent times, of oil and gas fields not running out at the expected time, but instead showing a higher content of hydrocarbons after they had already produced more than the initially estimated amount. This has been seen in the Middle East, in the deep gas wells of Oklahoma, on the Gulf of Mexico coast, and in other places. It is this apparent refilling during production that has been responsible for the series of gross underestimate of reserves that have been published time and again, the most memorable being the one in the early seventies that firmly predicted the end of oil and gas globally by 1987, a prediction which produced an energy crisis and with that a huge shift in the wealth of nations. See http://www.science-frontiers.com/sf124/sf124p10.htm.

2) oil and natural gas are being obtained from deep, non sedimentary rock, completely contrary to the theory of a biotic origin.

3) hydrocarbons similar to that of petroleum are found on other planets, comets, and elsewhere in the galaxy. Aliens or not, comets are not hospitable to carbon based life as we know it.

4) the presence of helium in oil deposits which cannot be accounted for by a biotic origin.

Naturally, there are contrary opinions, such as http://www.energybulletin.net/2741.html, but the theories are being investigated.

As a scientist though, I can vouch for the closeminded, herd mentality of scientists when they should be the most open minded of us all (for a prime and recent example, see the story of bacterial infections as a source of peptic ulcers. In 1984, physicians Warren and Marshall from Australia claimed that peptic ulcer disease was not caused merely by overproduction of gastric acid, but rather by a specific bacterium: Helicobacter pylori. They recommended antibiotic therapy. They were ridiculed by the medical establishment, which scoffed at the idea of peptic ulcers being an infectious disease. For the next thirteen years, most of the “medical mainstream” refused to let go of their calcified notion that the only treatment for ulcers was to combat gastric acid secretion. After all, that was what they all learned in medical school, so it had to be the truth! It wasn’t until 1997 that the CDC finally put out the word to the nation’s doctors: Drs. Warren and Marshall had been correct all along. Helicobacter pylori was, indeed, the cause of most cases of peptic ulcer disease. The treatment, at long last accepted by mainstream medicine, is now antibiotics).

It should be noted that magicians find scientists very easy to deceive!


It would be nice if Gold's theories were true though, wouldn't it?


116 posted on 03/26/2005 2:26:27 PM PST by SpinyNorman (Islamofascists are the true infidels.)
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To: neverdem
Lessee now, the U.S. tar sands are made off limits by enviro wackos, drilling offshore in territorial waters is severely limited, if not outright banned and places where proven are known or suspected are not allowed to be opened up.

Can anyone wonder why U.S. oil production has peaked?
117 posted on 03/26/2005 2:44:55 PM PST by Frumious Bandersnatch
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Actually, the oil will never run out. As supply declines and oil prices rise, other energy sources will become economically viable. We will have moved on to something else long before the last drop of oil is used.


118 posted on 03/26/2005 3:48:12 PM PST by Da Bilge Troll (Defeatism is not a winning strategy!)
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To: conservlib

Just happened? Freepmail me with a cogent answer, if possible, drooling moron.


119 posted on 03/26/2005 8:12:08 PM PST by Bars4Bill
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