Posted on 05/07/2024 8:12:19 AM PDT by RandFan
“If most come from Biden why should Trump minimize him”
Because, votes matter, why would you EVER not to everything you can to minimize your loss of votes to another candidate?
If say for example Trump loses 1 vote for ever 2 votes Biden loses, Biden will still lose far more votes than Trump, but RFK would need to pull in about 12% of the vote for Trump to win any place Biden’s lead without RFK is < 4.
12% RFK (2/3 from Biden = 8 points, Trump 4 points)
If however, Trump can hold onto some of those voters, so that Biden loses 3 votes for every 1 vote Trump loses, then RFK would get not 12% of the vote, but 10.6% of the vote (same 8% from Biden, but only 2.6% from Trump.)
So Trump wins any place where Biden’s lead without RFK is < 5.4
Just because your opponent is going to lose more votes than you will to the third party, doesn’t mean you don’t work hard to minimize your losses to them.
All RFK Jr needs is 15% to get into the debates. Once you are at that stage all bets are off. There isn’t a lot Trump can do one on one, especially if Biden doesn’t show which he has floated as a possible scenario.
Pervert Kevin Spacey just endorsed RFK, Jr.
I highly doubt at this point any debates will be happening.
Biden is incapable of debating... they can pump him full of stimulants and ergoloids and time box it, and pre package softball questions maybe.. but I highly doubt they will take the risk.
I agree if RFK gets on the stage, Biden is beyond cooked, of course if RFK gets to 15% in national polling Biden is cooked.
There is no doubt RFK on the debate state would have a major impact, but I still don’t see the math that he can win, or play spoiler for Biden.
Trump’s support among his 2020 voters, is consistently 95-97%... Regardless of their party affiliation. Biden’s is around 80-85%, and of those that have stated they voted for Biden last time, but intend to vote for someone else this time, 1/2 say they will vote for Trump.
Based on this, even if RFK were to consolidate all the Biden voters planning to not vote for him now, that only gets him into the high teens, maybe 20% on the high end.
If RFK makes the debate stage, I definitely can see him drawing move votes from Biden and convincing some of that 80-85% that say they intend to vote Biden a second time to defect, but enough of them to Win? Just not seeing it.
If he makes the debate stage he certainly could get some folks who didn’t vote last time to show up for him, and maybe pluck off a few previous Trump voters, but can’t see that number getting too big.
So, there is no doubt that RFK could draw some very large percentages for a third party, I don’t see him winning the election.
However, and this is a BIG however, thats all contingent on RFK making it to 15% and getting on the stage, and the debates happening.
As soon as the polls consistently show Biden getting far more hurt by RFK than Trump, I fully expect the Dems to unleash scorched earth to destroy RFK... So, honestly its hard to see if that happens RFK even making the 15% needed to be on the stage.... Then of course there is whether or not the debates will even happen at all.
We shall see.
He is already at 15-16% in the latest CNN polling.
Debates aren’t until the fall. Will see where things are then.
“Because, votes matter, why would you EVER not to everything you can to minimize your loss of votes to another candidate?”
Because, as you said, RFK takes more votes from Biden so minimizing him gives more votes to Biden than to Trump.
The more either of them try to keep Kennedy out of the debates or off the ballot the more it is going to come back against them.
Well, who knows ? Kennedy has challenged him to a debate since they will both be there.
As long as Trump is willing to wade into the fringy nut groups like the LP he should be able to keep the ones leaning towards him to still vote for him and he should do it enough to feed their egos, and not just with the LP.
I get the impression that there are a lot of people looking for an excuse to not vote for Biden, and also some who are motivated to keep him from reelection enough to not vote for their normal 3rd party candidate or skip voting but choose Trump instead.
No, go back and read what I said. I said he needs to work to minimize toe votes he loses to RFK and maximize the votes Biden loses to him.
I never said he needs to minimize the all votes RFK gets.
Competitive as in never sorry, never weak, never mistaken...It’s a bigger issue than just the vaccines. Kennedy may be seen as almost too much the opposite but many do find that a refreshing change.
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