Posted on 04/14/2002 4:01:40 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
But U.S. officials should not shrink from challenging this bully.
They should bring his undemocratic actions before the Organization of American States for debate, freeze accounts of law-breaking Venezuelan officials, and negotiate alternate petroleum supply arrangements with other countries. If they don't, Chavez will have carte blanche to consolidate his authoritarian rule and destabilize other governments and markets in the neighborhood.
Venezuela once prospered from its state oil industry. But over the past 25 years, it has evaded market reforms and suffered steady economic decline. In 1998, voters elected Chavez, a former coup-plotter and cashiered Lieutenant Colonel, because he promised - like Aristide in Haiti - to end corruption and lift up the poor.
Instead, Chavez had the constitution rewritten to insure his stay in power and bribed corrupt military officers to insure loyalty. Venezuela now rivals Haiti in poverty and underemployment. While the country's former middle class does not want to revisit past failures, few want to see Venezuela turned into a Haitian slum or a Cuban-style workers' paradise. But that seems to be the president's intent.
Like Fidel Castro, Chavez has made the armed forces the lead agency in Venezuela's government, isolating civilians as well as municipal and departmental (state) officials. While local police live in barrios and may be unwilling to harm their neighbors, the army and national guard are protected by barracks and isolation from civilian contact.
Cuban intelligence and security specialists now reportedly march alongside soldiers, wearing Venezuelan uniforms and tattling on dissenters. They have also helped train so-called "Bolivarian Circles" partisan gangs that spy in neighborhoods, intimidate opponents and enforce political loyalty.
Outside Caracas, his military units allow Colombian FARC guerrillas to camp out and resupply in Venezuelan territory. And he reportedly provides Bolivia's leftist coca union leader Evo Morales with money and advice. Morales was partly responsible for the ouster of President Gonzalo Sánchez de Lozada in October 2003.
Ever since an uprising took Chavez temporarily out of power in April 2002, he has been tightening the noose on his political opponents. A year ago, citizens collected more than two million signatures to petition a referendum on his rule. But Chavez halted that effort, claiming that the existing National Electoral Council (CNE) lacked authority to make a decision.***
But the discourse to the ambassadors was not directed at them, not even to their government. It was directed at Chavez followers, to show that he could browbeat ambassadors and foreign powers at will. This is actually insulting for the Chavez followers that do not know better, that do not know that Ambassadors are trained to deal with the most unsavory regimes on earth. Cheap, very cheap retaliation which can only alienate even further other countries. And also a confession on how weak the international position of Chavez has become.
There was an interesting detail though, the show of clips from the movie (and I carefully do not use the word documentary) "the revolution will not be televised". The ambassadors know very well what that movie is all about. Again, the targeted audience is not the diplomatic corps, it is the chavista emotional core, to justify for them the violence of these days as a pay off from the April 2002 violence. It is one way to get all networks to transmit the movie again, twice in a day. For purely propaganda purposes. And some people still wonder as to why the private media is so opposed to Chavez....***
The stalled effort to recall Chavez will reach a pivotal stage this weekend, with protesters planning a massive nationwide demonstration and supporters of a referendum negotiating with election officials for more time and resources to confirm nearly 876,000 disputed signatures.
Chavez, summoning the diplomats to the presidential palace in a meeting broadcast on national television, accused the United States of supporting the opposition. "In the name of the truth, I have to ask the Washington government to get its hands off Venezuela," Chavez told the ambassadors. "Mr. Bush's government is financing this mad opposition. I have quite a lot of evidence."
Responding to a question, he also said that while the opposition might succeed, "I don't think it will happen because the majority of those people don't even exist."***
Protesters streamed toward a central avenue from several gathering points in the capital, many dressed from head to toe in the national colors of red, yellow and blue. Officials said at least 500,000 people took part.
"It doesn't matter how many obstacles they put in our way!" bellowed opposition leader Enrique Mendoza, to an eruption of cheers. "Don't let them intimidate us!"
The march was peaceful, in contrast with last week's demonstrations. At least eight people were killed and hundreds arrested in five days of rioting set off by the National Elections Council's decision.
One protester's sign read: "I'm not armed. Don't shoot! I'm Venezuelan."
Emilia Duran, 72, wore a shirt that read "my signature counts."
"I want my grandchildren to live in liberty," she said.***
''Venezuela is Haiti with oil,'' said Stephen Johnson, a senior policy analyst at the Heritage Foundation. ``The society is totally polarized and political life revolves around one personality, not institutions.''
The Bush administration, meanwhile, is focused on Iraq and terrorism and -- except for free-trade negotiations -- largely avoids involvement in Latin America, several experts said.
Shifter said he has seen ''virulent anti-Americanism return,'' partly because of opposition to the war in Iraq and the perception that Bush cares only about stopping terrorism and trafficking.
Sweig agreed: ``It's not so much neglect as a narrow focus. And when this administration talks about promoting democracy, it's in countries such as Haiti and Venezuela, where they support the opposition.''***
In the latest sleight of hand, Venezuela's electoral committee set unforgiving parameters for reconfirming nearly 1 million signatures supporting a recall referendum. Although the petitioners followed established guidelines, the electoral committee is now bringing up technicalities to demand that petitioners reconfirm their signatures.***
It's the old David vs. Goliath card, which Cuba's Fidel Castro has been successfully playing for the past four decades. And at a time when anti-Americanism in Latin America is at its highest levels in recent decades, Chávez thinks it's his best way to cling to power.
Third, by radicalizing his ''Bolivarian revolution,'' Chávez may be trying to provoke turmoil to have a pretext to impose martial law and rule by decree. He could do this through a ''self-coup,'' or simply by leading opposition leaders to conclude that they have no chance other than political violence.
''Venezuelans are fed up with violence, and whoever is seen as encouraging violence loses the game,'' says political analyst Graciela Roemer.
Will the Bush administration fall into Chávez's trap? So far, its coolest heads are prevailing. ''I've seen some of his comments, and I'm not just going to dignify them with a response from this podium,'' White House spokesman Scott McClellan said Wednesday.
But even well-placed Washington insiders say it is not clear whether this position will prevail.
There is growing evidence of Chávez support for Colombian guerrilla groups, and violent groups in Bolivia, Argentina and other South American countries. But the CIA has so far prevailed in keeping that information classified because of fears of new embarrassments such as the weapons of mass destruction fiasco after the Iraq war, well-placed Washington sources say.
The Bush administration and the Venezuelan opposition should avoid falling into Chávez's trap. If Chávez continues along the path of breaking democratic rule, the OAS and Carter Center observers should withdraw from Venezuela with a big splash, and deprive Chávez of his last claims to legitimacy.
Then, the United States should work with its Latin American and European allies -- especially with France, America's latest ally in the Haiti crisis -- to put pressure on Chávez to bring back the OAS and Carter Center observers and give them a supervisory role in the verification of the petition signatures being questioned.
In a U.S. vs. Venezuela war of words, Chávez would win. He knows that, and that's why he's raising the stakes.***
Chavez, a former military coup leader, was elected by a wide margin in 1998 and then was re-elected after a plebiscite that reformed the constitution. But his government has since been accused of becoming corrupt, authoritarian and repressive.
His close relationship with Cuban leader Fidel Castro has led thousands to flee in fear that he might be leading the country toward a Cuban-style dictatorship. Chavez vows to stay in power until 2012, confident that he will win yet another re- election.
The U.S. government denies Chavez's accusations that it was behind a coup attempt against him in 2002, but President Bush has now publicly expressed his support for the opposition's effort to hold a recall election. Chavez's reaction has been to attack Bush, calling him an illegitimate president and challenging his tenure: "Let's see who will last longer Bush in the White House or me in Miraflores (the Venezuelan presidential palace).'
Aristide did not resort to rhetoric or verbal confrontation with world leaders, as Chavez has. But his pleas for help in controlling the incessant violence were ignored. His inability to work with opposing forces made him lose credibility and the support of the international community.
In Venezuela, the Organization for American States and the Carter Center for Democracy have been trying to mediate between the opposing factions, but the country remains polarized.
The Bush administration does not hide its disdain for Chavez, much the same way it criticized Aristide up until the day he headed out of Haiti on a flight to Africa.
But removing democratically elected Chavez from office will be a much more difficult task. Venezuela will probably not be the next Haiti, but if something is not done soon, it could end up being the next Cuba.***
"There have been changes in support for democracy, but they have to be democracies that the US likes," he says.
Haitians and Venezuelans alike are divided over US actions. What Chávez and Aristide loyalists may consider American intrusion and coup-mongering is simply support for democracy in the eyes of many of their opponents, who have accused both presidents of ruling authoritatively and violating human rights.
Hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans marched on Saturday to protest the denial of a presidential recall vote. The demonstration was more peaceful than last week's rioting when Chávez critics burned tires and blockaded streets.
Protester Anais Viloria, an attorney, says he favors US involvement in Venezuela. "The United States is a guarantor of democracy," he says.
But across town at the National Electoral Council's headquarters, pro-Chávez demonstrators waved banners saying "CIA out of Venezuela." Security guard Otilio Bencomo charges the US with plotting to remove Chavez by any means in order to cheaply obtain Venezuela's oil.
"[Washington] wants a government which will kneel down before them, in order to take Venezuela's natural resources," he says.
Chávez is trying to derail the effort to hold a recall vote. Opposition organizations turned in 3.4 million signatures last December, but the electoral council ruled last week that only 1.8 million of those were valid - far below the 2.4 million required. Chávez opponents charge the government-dominated council with using unfair technicalities. Those whose signatures were ruled doubtful will have an opportunity to confirm their signatures during a "repair period," but the opposition claims the electoral council has set conditions designed to frustrate that goal.
The US has earned Chávez's ire by sending hundreds of thousands of dollars to anti-Chávez organizations here and by issuing a steady stream of criticisms of Chávez policies. On Saturday, President Bush expressed support for the referendum process.
At the same time, Washington's abandonment of Aristide has set a dangerous precedent for other leaders, Mr. Fatton says. "It generates a lot of problems for a government which was elected and becomes unpopular," he says.***
"If that happens, the U.S. people can forget about getting Venezuelan oil," he said.
Washington has dismissed Aristide's assertion.
Chavez, who purged Venezuela's armed forces of opponents after he survived a brief 2002 coup, said he would not hesitate to use the military to arrest opposition governors or mayors if they organized a rebellion.
"I have nerves of steel, you know," he said.***
Chavez Warns United States Against Invading Venezuela*** CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) - President Hugo Chavez on Sunday vowed to freeze oil exports to the United States and wage a "100-year war" if Washington ever tried to invade Venezuela. The United States has repeatedly denied ever trying to overthrow Chavez, but the leftist leader accuses Washington of being behind a failed 2002 coup and of funding opposition groups seeking a recall referendum on his presidency.***
Sheesh! He is a card carrying Democrat.
Think the combination of rising gasoline prices and "No blood for oil" will have any bearing on the domestic (US) anti-Bush campaign? </SARCASM
He's a Communist.
I know these days it means the same thing.
Chavez Rosales also said he signed a petition for a vote to recall the president, who alleged the signature was bogus during a speech to foreign ambassadors on Friday.
"I'm sure Emiliano Chavez doesn't exist," the president said, holding up a copy of the petition form. He pointed to an identification number accompanying the signature - No. 2,550,083 - saying it belonged to a dead woman.***
……In a highly unusual move, Venezuela's ambassador to the United Nations, Milos Alcalay, resigned from his job Thursday, saying he could no longer represent a government that violates human rights. Chávez's bloody crackdown on opposition demonstrators ''closely resembles'' the methods of Latin America's right-wing military dictatorships of the l970s, Alcalay said.
Chávez's transformation in the eyes of many outsiders from a loud-talking nuisance into an abuser of human rights will make him a tougher figure to tolerate in Washington, Latin America and Europe, and an easier one for the Bush administration to criticize.
''He is now behaving in the manner of the traditional Latin American military dictators,'' White House special ambassador to Latin America Otto Reich said in an interview Friday. ``Neighboring countries cannot remain silent in the face of this wave of brutality unleashed on the Venezuelan people.'' ***
The court overturned a decision by the National Elections Council to force more than 870,000 citizens to confirm they signed the petitions seeking a vote to recall Chavez. The court ordered the council to accept those signatures as valid unless citizens come forward to say they had not signed a petition.
The ruling, while not guaranteeing a recall, was a big victory for Chavez's opponents, who had claimed the council's decision had made holding the referendum nearly impossible. If the citizens don't come forward, Chavez opponents would have more than enough signatures to trigger the vote.
Opposition leaders called for celebratory rallies and planned a big march to the Supreme Court on Tuesday.
Venezuela's state television urged Chavez supporters to stage a counter-demonstration at the Supreme Court on Tuesday, raising the possibility of violent clashes in a nation deeply divided between those who accuse Chavez of becoming increasingly autocratic and those who believe he speaks for the poor.
At least nine people died and scores were injured two weeks ago during clashes between National Guard troops and Chavez opponents protesting the election council's decision.
"The elections council has no choice but to accept (the Supreme Court's) decision," said Enrique Mendoza, leader of the Democratic Coordinator coalition of opposition political parties. "There will be a referendum." ***
Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez also said he would not recognize the Haitian transition government being formed by Prime Minister Gerard Latortue. An official said none of the 11 of 13 Cabinet ministers chosen so far came from Aristide's Lavalas Family Party.
Chávez told a nationwide address yesterday that "the doors of Venezuela are open" to the former president, who resigned and fled Haiti on Feb. 29, spent two weeks in the Central African Republic and arrived Monday in Jamaica to reunite with his family.
Chávez's offer of asylum is certain to whet the already sharp edges in U.S. relations with the leftist populist Chávez, whose oil-rich nation is all but politically paralyzed by a drive to recall him.***
Kicking off a jurisdictional battle over the disputed referendum, the court's Constitutional Chamber ordered the Electoral Chamber to refrain from making decisions on the recall vote sought by opponents of the leftist president.
The order aimed to block an Electoral Chamber decision Monday which overruled electoral authorities by saying the opposition had initially obtained well over the minimum 2.4 million signatures required by law to trigger a referendum.
"Venezuela's courts are politicized, and this just follows the political composition of these Supreme Court branches," said Jose Cerritelli, an analyst at Bear Stearns in New York.
He said pro-Chavez magistrates controlled the Constitutional Chamber, which was expected to follow up with a verdict on the referendum fight that has gripped the world's No. 5 oil exporter for more than a year.
But the dispute was likely to end up in the Supreme Court's 20-member Plenary Chamber, the nation's highest appeals body, where Chavez followers and foes are more evenly divided.
Chavez and his supporters, who reject the referendum petition as riddled with fraud, had appealed the Electoral Chamber's decision Monday, saying its magistrates were allied with the opposition. ***
The train wreck that had once been the U.S. mining industry in South America was absolute and lethal. Yet the events leading up to it seemed, even to nominally intelligent Americans, each harmless in and of itself. But the net effect of this - to use the term employed by investigators of fatal airliner disasters - "cascade of events" was catastrophic.
We are reminded of Chile 33 years ago by something that DID happen only yesterday, or at least just last week, and that was the vastly under-reported seizure by the Venezuelan government of 5,400 ounces of Hecla Mining Company's gold.
A Generalissimo Alberto Betancourt, major domo of Venezuela's Bolivar region, marched his National Guard troops over to a supposedly secure warehouse somewhere in eastern Bolivar State, broke in and boosted Hecla's triple-nine - five thousand, four hundred ounces of it, worth (at $402/oz gold) $2,170,000, and hauled it off to Venezuela's Central Bank on Tuesday, March 9th.***
The report by the commission, a part of the Organization of American States, also said the armed forces exert ''undue influence'' in the country's political life.
Chávez, a former lieutenant colonel and military coup-plotter, has placed dozens of active and retired officers in key positions and removed the constitutional requirement that the armed forces stay out of politics.
The reports release coincided with that of the commissions annual survey, which lists Venezuela as one of five nations in the region that merit special attention. The others are Colombia, Cuba, Guatemala and Haiti.
WORSE SITUATION
While the report only covers events up to October 2003, the situation has only worsened since then, according to local and international human rights organizations.
Venezuela's ambassador to the United Nations resigned on March 4, saying he could no longer serve a government that violated human rights. That followed what human rights groups described as ''excessive force'' against recent street demonstrations by opposition groups demanding a recall referendum against Chávez.
The government has dismissed all criticisms as part of a destabilization campaign led by Washington. Vice President José Vicente Rangel told journalists this week that complaints of torture, arbitrary arrest and kidnap by security forces were ``media reports [designed] to provoke a hostile climate in international circles.''
Fermín Toro, the governments international representative for human rights issues, has described the Inter-American Human Rights Commission as ''shock troops'' and ''executioners'' carrying out a policy of intervention on behalf of the U.S. ``empire.''***
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