Posted on 04/15/2002 7:52:27 AM PDT by browardchad
A 4/12 e-mail, entitled “Where Bush Job Approval is Heading ,” from Matthew Dowd, Senior Advisor, RNC:
As many will recall, prior to the 2000 National Republican Convention in Philadelphia, by looking at historical Gallup poll patterns, we had predicted that the Bush-Cheney ticket would gain a lead of 10 to 12 points over Gore-Lieberman in the aftermath of the Republican Convention. Then we predicted that after the 2000 Democratic Convention the presidential race would go to even or Bush-Cheney would be slightly behind. Public polling at the time confirmed that all this came to pass as we expected.
Again we want to make a prediction: While President Bush’s approval numbers have been at unprecedented and historical levels for a rather lengthy period of time - they will fall back to more realistic levels. This movement downward has begun (though dropping slower than other Presidents in history), and will continue to fall absent some unforeseen dominating event.
President Bush’s approval rating stayed within five points of his highest rating for nearly 17 weeks - the previous record for a President was seven weeks. President Bush’s rating remained within ten points of his high for approximately 23 weeks.
Looking at history, if President Bush follows a normal historical pattern, his approval rating should return to a "new normal" within 46 weeks from that date or the end of July 2002. Our guess is that President Bush’s numbers will settle out a higher plateau than before because a portion of the American public has fundamentally altered their view of him from how he has handled the crisis.
Therefore, over the coming weeks and months the President’s numbers will continue to drift downward as the November elections near and, as a result, Democratic partisans return to a normal disapproval pattern. Since Democratic partisans account for approximately 40% of the electorate, this by itself could return the President’s approval numbers into the 60s.
So while the pundits and the media attempt to attribute cause and effect to this expected natural fall back - remember that history is the better guide.
The spin before the fall?
You know what I think? Bush should just go completely over the top. I mean every single thing we want, demand it. Ten things per day. Speeches everyday. Get these pompous, country club repubs in the House and Senate to get off there impotent asses and SELL SOMETHING.
TALK TO THE PEOPLE. Get behind the wheel and DRIVE the issues. Explain it to them. Damn the media. Overwhelm them. Damn the politics. Shout the naysayers down. Mobilize grass roots activism. Anyone else wonder why we, as citizens, have been asked to do virtually nothing to support this so-called war on terrorism? Damn 2004. Maybe there will not be any free elections in 2004 if we don't get the job done.
Republicans Bracing for Bush Poll Decline
I think you'll find some of the "die hard Bush fans" on the above thread...
Yes. Why no call for sacrifice? (except in vague terms); public bioterrorism education?; evacuation plans?, or warnings that oil supplies may be interrupted? Americans may now live in the "new normal," but we're hardly prepared psychologically, for a major attack, and are less so as the days go on, and memory fades.
I'm wondering if the next step is to agree to a return of UN inspectors to Iraq -- God help us all.
This is false, after installing a new pro-soviet puppet to replace the old pro-soviet, out of control, puppet Amin in staged coup (with about 5000 soviets 'advisors' dressed like afghans) The Soviets invaded with 40,000 men in a well planned lightning fast operation they occupied the urban areas of Afghanistan. Over the course of months and years they were unable to secure the surrounding rural areas. The soviets increased troops to 118,000.
It then took ten years of chipping away by the Afghans freedom fighters attacking them at every level until they left. But from this history we can see that we might be in for a longer haul. Afghanistan is an easy place to invade and take control, keeping it controlled is another matter all together.
But sadly the gist of the article seems accurate.
I had the same thought at the time, that clinton's chickens were due to come home to roost and it would be better if they did it on Gore's shoulders. But on balance, I'm still glad that Bush is on the job now.
Not yet.
It's April, 1940.
First the writer derides the status of the military, and then he calls for widening the war.
The irony of his Phony War title is that what followed the original Phony War was the complete capitulation of Belgium and France, and a humiliating retreat at Dunkirk. Only the arrogance of hindsight by the victors who lived (or have agendas) suggests that diplomacy would have been a better course for history.
Third, the CIA/DOD/FBI/NSA/SEC/INS/FAA/DEA/ATF/IRS...failed to prevent Sept. 11 and yet there was not one high level resignation. Worse, the folks we hired to prevent 9/11, blamed it all on $4.50 an hour baggage checkers. How on Earth would anyone conclude that more B1 bombers is the answer?
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