Posted on 04/21/2002 1:36:42 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
We can kid ourselves by ridiculing Japan for doing this. But if we're at all interested in truth, we may wish to contemplate what sending most of our manufacturing to China will ultimately accomplish. Ultimately it will see our corporations transfering their R&D to China as well. China will have access to this technology.
THE single most important factor in our own nation's greatness, was it's continual positioning of itself out front of the global technological curve. Now we are evidently willing to turn that over to a foreign entity.
I don't care if it's China. I don't care if it's Panama or any other nation. Doing this, turning over R&D to a foreign entity, is nothing less than national suicide.
Oh it can be said, and it will no doubt be said right here, that the US is not sending it's R&D to China. But the truth is, the US isn't the operative word here. Corporate entities are the operative words. If R&D can be accomplished cheaper in China, guess where R&D will wind up.
Folks if you're sleeping through this, sorry to have disturbed you.
13...You got a plan to get Japan, all of the factions in China, Korean, and the US investors to agree???...
You won't need any plan. The relationship will form naturally. China is large. Once the Chinese middle class develops, the resources of China will combine to overwhelm the economies of the area. Does Canada or Mexico really have a choice versus the US? The same applies for Germany. West Germany was a powerhouse alone, united it dominates Europe. South Africa dominates the nations of Southern end of Africa.
China only represents a small fraction of corporate sales... if China is lucky... in 25 years it will represent a whopping 5% of corporate revenues...
One interesting theme is that many countries industrial capabilities far exceed their wants.
China's needs are food and water. They can usually acquire these things easily enough if they just throw a lot of people at the problem. They're are also able to produce fancy digital toasters, microwaves, TV's, and cars. But the average Chinese citizen couldn't use or afford those items.
For awhile the Japanese were in the same boat. Now they want and can afford the basic items they are capable of producing. But now they are stuck with the same problem that we have. Some one else can produce those items cheaper.
If there just happened to be another, even wealthier, civilization who's citizens liked to fly around in rocket ships, take vacations on space stations, and play around with super-colliders in their back yard then we would be doing much better. Of course we might be jealous of their tricked-out space shuttles we're building for them but we would still be doing better.
But by having items designed in China you create Chinese nerds. One characteristic of a nerd is that they like to get expensive techno-stuff. This will help even things out again to the point that the world's companies compete on the bases of quality more than price. That is if the communist ruling few don't enslave the masses for their own profit. A big possibility.
On a side note:
One of my fears is that the Japanese will produce less Anime and Manga as they mature.
Oh it can be said, and it will no doubt be said right here, that the US is not sending it's R&D to China. But the truth is, the US isn't the operative word here. Corporate entities are the operative words. If R&D can be accomplished cheaper in China, guess where R&D will wind up.
The US model is that we control or will control the world via the IMF, World Bank, CIA, etc. Therefore, the US corporations are free to put their R&D anywhere (except countries on the short black list).
Europe and Japan have no such illusions. European and Japanese companies have been much more cagy about exporting technology. However, as the article points out, the Japanese need to do this to catch up to US companies that are building up R&D capabilities in China.
We are but a tiny speck on the face of the planet. One of these days these entities are going to put us in our place. In my opinion we're doing everything we possibly could to make that eventuality a done deal.
Japan became a powerful industrial country because of the United States. The US was fighting a war in Korea and needed a cheap and efficient supply point. Japan was an ally in the fight against Communism so we restored their industrial base which had been completely destroyed during WW2. The little tigers (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore) had their industry built by Japanese industry in search of cheap labor and materials. The tigers are now competitors with Japan so Japan is turning to China to reduce costs.
It is foolish to project past numbers into the future and say "behold". Remember global warming and global cooling? Do you remember the amazing stock market and the world population crisis? The future cannot be predicted by trends. We can however look to the past for indicators. How long did it take Japan to become the number two economy? Counting from the Korean War (1950), it was roughly 20 years. The little tigers developed faster.
The withholding of R&D dollars or technology will not slow China down much. It will get to China even if the Chinese must steal it. Did you know that the secrets of the Industrial Revolution were stolen from England by American entrepreneurs? A strong China is something we will have to live with. Remember the Japan scares of the end of the 20th Century? The first US response was protectionism. American businesses died anyway. The second response came from the private sector. US businesses changed their practices and became stronger. Chinese competition will do the same.
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