Posted on 05/30/2002 4:25:59 PM PDT by Pokey78
Saudi wants to become a nuclear power before Iran and Iraq, and it has hundreds of billion$ to shop the world markets. Iran is buying N.K. medium range weapon systems; Saudi wants Chinese/USA via Bill Clinton medium/long range (read Europe) missles. Israel is in for a hot war.
The very dirty nuke technolgy of the Paki/Indian warheads will create a lasting Hell on earth. Assuming many weapons will be knocked out from frist strike EMP, the combined throw might be less than a dozen combined. "Instant" deaths would be 10-12 million with ten times that by winter. Most food stocks and fetile fields and water will be contaminated. That is the news that Rumy will likely deliver.
7th Century fervor with 20th Century weapons - If this global Pan-Islamic War gets out of hand, our Ohio class boats may come home empty.
Close, but not quite. In fact, Serbia accepted the terms of Austria's ultimatum of 23 July 1914, but Austria declared war anyway.
The text of the ultimatum can be found here, and Serbia's reply here.
One of the (many) unlearned lessons of the Great War is that there is a watershed moment when war becomes inevitable. On the one side, there is still room for diplomacy, concessions, and peacemakers. On the other side, the logic of events is irresistible, and there is nothing anyone can do to avert catastrophe.
In my opinion, for what it's worth, the statement yesterday by the Indian minister Naidhu that "not even an inch of Kashmir would be conceded" was the moment at which we crossed the watershed. I am deeply pessimistic.
No big deal... our "Safeguard" could have probably killed an ICBM 60 miles above the earth surface; we had the things loaded with a 400 kiloton nuclear warhead (the basic idea is, if you vaporize everything in a 2-3 miles radius, you're gonna hit the incoming bogie).
So, it ain't like we really needed Soviet "Galosh" technology, we were probably just wanting to compare notes and see how good the Russian version was.
Trouble is, the EM Pulse from the interceptor's warheads tends to blind their own radars. So, your system can't be 100% accurate against a MIRV attack; it degrades it's own targeting ability with each interceptor blast. Of course, since all nuclear blasts produce EM Pulse, Russia "Galosh" suffers from the same deficiency. But, I guess the Russkies figure a even a half-blind Ballistic Missile defense is better than none, so they kept the one around Moscow up and running.
The feild for China is not ripe yet. Turmoil or not, they are not assured of a victory over Taiwan.
Most Chinese 'thinkers' assume the war over Taiwan will occur around 2020.
Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Rumsfeld told them "come across that Strait and we nuke you." He wasn't kidding either.
What the author is really saying is.....
time for the US to pony up big bucks and military pizza-delivery.
BS
Let them kill each other, we have our own problems to solve
To my knowledge there is not deployment of ABM missile tech to India, although the Indians have adept technicians working on this at the moment. Remember most of the Indian missile tech (from their IRBMs to some of the air to air missiles are indigenous designs).
Hence i really do not know, although i do not think so. Russia seems 'jealous' of their capabilities.
I wonder why?(scoff alert)
The chance of China actually attacking IMO is low, except for maybe a temper tantrum of sorts like in 1996.
With Bush in Office and an assured knock em down drag em out fight, it would delay the Chinese doctrine of overwhelming force against Taiwan for a really long time.
Plus social unrest has a lot to do with things...as well as a change of Party control.
Agreed. I'd be shocked if Russia sold a "Galosh" to India.
Simply because i doubt the US would allow any nation to send Nukes to another, even to Taiwan. And the Taiwanese would not dare accept nukes since they rely on the US for primary protection; and as for the Indians they would not risk annoying the US govt at such a perilious time.
Thus i doubt it, unless it is very hush hush.
I believe you are correct, however...I also believe that the one thing that will keep this from happening is that Pakistan has to know it will be swatted like a bug if it uses nuclear weapons against India. They don't stand a chance against a truly pissed off Indian response.
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