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This isn't posturing - we're on the brink of a nuclear war
The Telegraph (U.K.) ^ | 05/31/2002 | Ahmed Rashid

Posted on 05/30/2002 4:25:59 PM PDT by Pokey78

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To: Dog Gone
This week from a retired Special Forces guy I heard that Musharraf, fearing that SEALS would come take his nukes, months ago distributed his warheads to about a dozen of his closest ISI/Paki army officers. Reports are also hot that Saudi is supplying lots of cash for Paki warhead technology, enough to pay for the 12 recently delivered Chinese missles which Pakistan is firing off four now in "tests". Methinks that China believes that their police state can control their own Islamic problem.

Saudi wants to become a nuclear power before Iran and Iraq, and it has hundreds of billion$ to shop the world markets. Iran is buying N.K. medium range weapon systems; Saudi wants Chinese/USA via Bill Clinton medium/long range (read Europe) missles. Israel is in for a hot war.

The very dirty nuke technolgy of the Paki/Indian warheads will create a lasting Hell on earth. Assuming many weapons will be knocked out from frist strike EMP, the combined throw might be less than a dozen combined. "Instant" deaths would be 10-12 million with ten times that by winter. Most food stocks and fetile fields and water will be contaminated. That is the news that Rumy will likely deliver.

7th Century fervor with 20th Century weapons - If this global Pan-Islamic War gets out of hand, our Ohio class boats may come home empty.

81 posted on 05/30/2002 7:17:51 PM PDT by SevenDaysInMay
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To: Pokey78
Be concerned.

Trans-Pacific Fallout

82 posted on 05/30/2002 7:21:20 PM PDT by FReepaholic
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To: Lucius Cornelius Sulla
Austria demanded that Serbia make concessions, and Serbia refused. Austria and Serbia started shooting, then the system of alliances committed all of Europe to the fight.

Close, but not quite. In fact, Serbia accepted the terms of Austria's ultimatum of 23 July 1914, but Austria declared war anyway.

The text of the ultimatum can be found here, and Serbia's reply here.

One of the (many) unlearned lessons of the Great War is that there is a watershed moment when war becomes inevitable. On the one side, there is still room for diplomacy, concessions, and peacemakers. On the other side, the logic of events is irresistible, and there is nothing anyone can do to avert catastrophe.

In my opinion, for what it's worth, the statement yesterday by the Indian minister Naidhu that "not even an inch of Kashmir would be conceded" was the moment at which we crossed the watershed. I am deeply pessimistic.

83 posted on 05/30/2002 7:23:20 PM PDT by John Locke
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To: maui_hawaii
,,, post # 73.
84 posted on 05/30/2002 7:23:34 PM PDT by shaggy eel
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To: spetznaz, timydnuc
I know for a fact that Russia 'sold' one of its Galosh perimeter defence ABM missiles to the US so that they could derive some accelerated development from it. However the ABM missile the Russians sent over was a 'monkey model' since some of the more complex equipment had been removed, eg the mechanism to guide the kill vehicle to the terminal stage of the Ballistic projectile. So all we were stuck with was a nice booster stage rocket that was a Galosh, but lacked the real teeth of the actual missiles deployed around Moscow.

No big deal... our "Safeguard" could have probably killed an ICBM 60 miles above the earth surface; we had the things loaded with a 400 kiloton nuclear warhead (the basic idea is, if you vaporize everything in a 2-3 miles radius, you're gonna hit the incoming bogie).

So, it ain't like we really needed Soviet "Galosh" technology, we were probably just wanting to compare notes and see how good the Russian version was.

Trouble is, the EM Pulse from the interceptor's warheads tends to blind their own radars. So, your system can't be 100% accurate against a MIRV attack; it degrades it's own targeting ability with each interceptor blast. Of course, since all nuclear blasts produce EM Pulse, Russia "Galosh" suffers from the same deficiency. But, I guess the Russkies figure a even a half-blind Ballistic Missile defense is better than none, so they kept the one around Moscow up and running.

85 posted on 05/30/2002 7:27:55 PM PDT by OrthodoxPresbyterian
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To: Anamensis
I understand where you are coming from but its not IF the Indians & Pakistanis kill each other, its HOW they kill each other. They both are supposed to have nuclear weapons. Thats not good.
86 posted on 05/30/2002 7:30:02 PM PDT by Ditter
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To: spetznaz
Re: #70

The feild for China is not ripe yet. Turmoil or not, they are not assured of a victory over Taiwan.

Most Chinese 'thinkers' assume the war over Taiwan will occur around 2020.

Oh yeah, I forgot to mention that Rumsfeld told them "come across that Strait and we nuke you." He wasn't kidding either.

87 posted on 05/30/2002 7:33:56 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: spetznaz
Has Russia supplied any Galosh missiles to India? If she has not, up to now, maybe now is the time to do so?
88 posted on 05/30/2002 7:34:53 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: Pokey78
The need for international intervention has never been greater, not just to prevent a war but to force the two sides finally to resolve the Kashmir dispute

What the author is really saying is.....

time for the US to pony up big bucks and military pizza-delivery.

BS

Let them kill each other, we have our own problems to solve

89 posted on 05/30/2002 7:35:56 PM PDT by WhiteGuy
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To: spetznaz
Here's a report i remember reading somewhere; it spoke of a highlevel meeting between IndianAF types who were visitng Taiwan's Defence Ministry. The gist of it was that the Indians were moving their a knight (some nukes) to Taiwan in case China tried something, the Taiwanese would have something to seriously damage China with in case of an Chinese attack on India or a move on Taiwan. Uncorroborated rumors/intel info. But plausible. Tinfoilly, but plausible.
90 posted on 05/30/2002 7:38:30 PM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: WhiteGuy
Your FR page is hilarious, dude ;)
91 posted on 05/30/2002 7:39:00 PM PDT by AM2000
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To: aristeides
US objections to the Israelis selling their GreenPine System and Arrow missiles to India have not been heard lately.
92 posted on 05/30/2002 7:39:43 PM PDT by swarthyguy
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To: aristeides
The most advanced tech that Russia has supplied to India are Radar Absorbent Coatings (RAM) for its new Su-30s and some of the migs that can reduce their radar cross section by around 70%.

To my knowledge there is not deployment of ABM missile tech to India, although the Indians have adept technicians working on this at the moment. Remember most of the Indian missile tech (from their IRBMs to some of the air to air missiles are indigenous designs).

Hence i really do not know, although i do not think so. Russia seems 'jealous' of their capabilities.

I wonder why?(scoff alert)

93 posted on 05/30/2002 7:40:03 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: spetznaz
That last one was for #73. Sorry.

The chance of China actually attacking IMO is low, except for maybe a temper tantrum of sorts like in 1996.

With Bush in Office and an assured knock em down drag em out fight, it would delay the Chinese doctrine of overwhelming force against Taiwan for a really long time.

Plus social unrest has a lot to do with things...as well as a change of Party control.

94 posted on 05/30/2002 7:41:03 PM PDT by maui_hawaii
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To: spetznaz
Hence i really do not know, although i do not think so. Russia seems 'jealous' of their capabilities.

Agreed. I'd be shocked if Russia sold a "Galosh" to India.

95 posted on 05/30/2002 7:42:34 PM PDT by OrthodoxPresbyterian
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To: Anamensis
And it could clean up all the Al Qaeda if they go to bat for the Pakis.
96 posted on 05/30/2002 7:44:16 PM PDT by codebreaker
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To: swarthyguy
Interesting post you have there. Plausible, very possible even. But i doubt it is probable.

Simply because i doubt the US would allow any nation to send Nukes to another, even to Taiwan. And the Taiwanese would not dare accept nukes since they rely on the US for primary protection; and as for the Indians they would not risk annoying the US govt at such a perilious time.

Thus i doubt it, unless it is very hush hush.

97 posted on 05/30/2002 7:45:22 PM PDT by spetznaz
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To: DoughtyOne
I believe this could very easily spiral out of control...

I believe you are correct, however...I also believe that the one thing that will keep this from happening is that Pakistan has to know it will be swatted like a bug if it uses nuclear weapons against India. They don't stand a chance against a truly pissed off Indian response.

98 posted on 05/30/2002 7:46:17 PM PDT by Bloody Sam Roberts
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To: timydnuc
Another scenario. All the nonMuslim countries should tell these two countries they are on their own. No troops, no war materials and all monies cease now. If they want to destroy each other, there will be no clean up, restoration or help by any other country. These people believe America will come and rebuild anything they nuke away. They will cry and we will come. Rummy needs to set them straight.
99 posted on 05/30/2002 7:46:56 PM PDT by Hattie
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To: DoughtyOne
China will stay put, you are over reacting.
100 posted on 05/30/2002 7:48:01 PM PDT by FightThePower!
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