Posted on 10/01/2001 1:44:48 PM PDT by SocialMeltdown
***For every environmentalist, this is must MUST READ, MUST LISTEN (audio file), and MUST RESPOND***
Bjorn Lomborg says environmentalists have exaggerated the problems facing our planet, and have created a litany of fears about the state of the world - fears that are not supported by the facts.
He claims the population explosion is not a crisis; our oil and mineral reserves are not rapidly being depleted; pollution is not threatening our health; and species are not becoming extinct in vast numbers.
He has marshalled his arguments into a book called, The Skeptical Environmentalist: Measuring the Real State of the World (Amazon Link) , which created an uproar when it was published in his native Denmark. Now, the English-language edition has just come out and the controversy over its conclusions has continued.
Dr. Bjorn Lomborg is an associate professor of statistics at the University of Aarhus in Denmark (and former Green member).
Listen To MP3 Audio Interview With Dr. Bjorn Lomborg Here (9.03 MB, 20 minutes long)
*** Please notice how the host, Bob McDonald, is incredulous and disputes each point Dr. Lomborg makes. This is typical of Mr. McDonald and his regular choice of guests and topics.
It is important that people listen to this interview and respond to the email below and Mr. McDonald wants your comments (he says so at the end of the interview but is cut off).
Thank-you.
Email Your Comments Here: quirks@toronto.cbc.ca
BUT I am over 60 years old and I have watched all the beautiful places of my youth disappear under the relentless pressures of development. That's true all over the world. As the realtors like to say "They aren't making any more of it".
I don't care what Lundborg or Simon or anyone else has to say to the contrary. There is a population problem.
The Japanese manage to fit about 1/2 of America's population into a space the size of California despite large amounts of the Japanese islands being too mountainous for settlement. It is a population density problem that you are observing. If we didn't allow cities to become unpleasant crime-ridden places that nice people fear and flee, then we wouldn't be so prone to spreading out.
Environmental and population issues are so contentious because they threaten personal freedom and religious dogma. I could make this a political issue but again I prefer not to.
Julian Simon was a clever guy. He recognized that the earth could not support an infinite number of people. He recognized that we are dependent on the biosphere and must protect it. He recognized that we seemed to be approaching important limits.
But he parted company with Ehrlich and other leftists on at least three points:
1) You cannot just linearly extrapolate population growth from past history. People are not animals. The can recognize problems and adapt their behavior. In this he is undoubtedly right. Birth rates have been dropping, sometimes radically. But it is worth noting that not all of this is voluntary.
2) He contended that the market was a much better regulator than government. It would reveal shortages, adjust prices, encourage innovation. In this he was right too. It's this observation that enabled him to win his bet with Ehrlich.
3) He felt human beings were not given enough credit for their ability to adapt. They would find a way to solve this problem as they had most others, given the proper incentives - market incentives. Viewed this way, population becomes an asset rather than a problem because the more people there are, the more bright people there are, and thus the chances of successful innovation greatly increase. This is the riskyest of his proposals. It comes closest to "hubris". None-the-less, so far it seems to be right.
That said, I don't quite agree with him. Part of it is just gut feeling. Part an observation that there is no substitute for land and no way to make more. Part because I feel there's a certain (hard-to-grasp) circularity to his arguments. Part because I don't think the markets are that accurate (9 of the last 5 depressions have been predicted by the market).
All but the most hide-bound dogmatists recognize there are situations where government intervention is justified. This is one of them. Besides, freedom is always limited by financial situation and increasingly limited by population density. All but the most hide-bound dogmatists But he parted company with Ehlich and
The birth rate has been dropping steadily in most places on earth. It is worth trying to understand why this has been happening. Worth continuing and expanding research on environmental and population problems. And especially worth making sure the trend continues.
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