The United States's long war

What, no frog? LOL

We have already waited too long to act..

"1938 alert™©®"

Thanks BTW, ;o)

My fear is that "The Battle of the Hormuz" will prove to be our Singapore, our Prince of Wales.

Which is exactly why President Bush is filling the void up with Freedom, Liberty and Democracy!

Except for stomping on the First Amendment here at home with his stupid CFR. He lobbies harder for freedom of speech in Iraq than right here at home.

There were more ads by independent organizations than ever before. Name ONE instance where 1st Amendment rights have been trampled. I hate CFR, but it did not stop ANYONE from getting their message out.

LLS

I now see where you and I may differ, and why our proposed plans (call my references to Saudi "phase one") reflect this.

1. Essentially, I would like to move on a faster time frame to take on the center of the ideology itself and to get what I see as an inevitable conflict going now rather than later…

From Sun Tzu’s The Art of War: To be certain to take what you attack, attack where the enemy cannot defend… To refrain from attacking an army drawn up in calm and confident array:--this is the art of studying circumstances.

My objection to your strategy (timing) is that unless, and until, the Saudi government faces a debilitating, internal conflict, any external military offensive would take too long. Such a delay would allow Islamist forces outside of Saudi Arabia to counter attack via terroristic means as well as conventional military means in other regions as part of a “global” jihad. Additionally, other international, military confrontation calculus must be factored into this equation as well. Furthermore, as I have noted earlier the negative impact on the global economy may be greater than either the US or our allies can tolerate.

Your position that it is better to “bite the bullet” now rather than later is valid only if there is no better alternative. Among our allies, Europe and Japan, probably would not share the view that there is no better alternative and would, most likely, react accordingly. Additionally, and, perhaps more importantly from an international strategy perspective, a world economic calamity would involve our non-Islamic strategic competitors, such as China and our enemies such as North Korea. These potential negatives must be accounted for and potentially neutralized, either politically or militarily, in advance. Your strategy has not dealt with these potentialities.

2. The very real possibility of the KSA and Saud rule imploding due to it's own "deal with the devil" getting out of hand together with it's rapidly changing demographics (my #108) needs to be addressed and planned for.

No argument. However, planning for the eventuality and moving to effect it are two different things. Again, as I have noted earlier, I do not think that the US has the capability to clandestinely orchestrate such an effort for several reasons.

Now that this thread is slipping under the radar, I'd like to ask you two for your knowledge and opinions on Russian involvement in the Middle East.

The Soviets had many of these countries as client states, and the Russian Federation has continued to supply arms to Middle Eastern countries.

Putin seems to have thrown his hand in with Syria and Iran. Certain evidence point to Primakov (covert in civilian mode) taking the WMD out of Iraq into Syria and Lebanon and some out the back door to be dumped in the Indian Ocean just before our invasion in 2003.

At the conference on the Saddam tapes this past weekend, Jack Straw said the Bush administration does not want the knowledge of what happened to the WMD to be followed up or "proven." He felt there was some greater issue involved that led the administration to undermine efforts to get the story out on this issue.

Russia allied with the Caspian oil and Middle Eastern oil against the United States is a formidable opponent. Russia disassembling her nukes under treaty with the U.S. yet keeping caches in Middle East countries is a formidable player. The situation with Iran getting nukes is mind bogglingly serious. IMO, because of these issues the United States in not in any position now or the near future to call out the Russians on their support of Syria and Iran, and their attempts to forge alliances in the Middle East against us. And thus we are not in a position to confront Syria and Iran in a meaningful way right now (with the Russian shadow protecting them), and we'll be in a worse position when Iran becomes armed with nukes that can be delivered to U.S. soil, if they aren't already, leaving our only hope in an internal revolution by the young against the Mullahs.

I have conjectured that in joining forces with Islamic radicals the Russians are riding a tiger that will consume them, too.

Others I talked with have said Russia and China even are not real players in future history, which seems to me to be an incredibly naive view.

I'd appreciate discussion by both of you about the strategy and role of Russia concerning the threat to us in the Middle East from Islam.

I'd appreciate discussion by both of you about the strategy and role of Russia concerning the threat to us in the Middle East from Islam.

The Mid East is truly important on the world stage for only two reasons: its petroleum resources and Islamic terrorism. Were it not for the petroleum, the terrorism could potentially be handled in manner similar to Haiti.

Since the days of the Czars, Russia’s interest in the Mideast has been primarily for a warm water port. Without a warm water port, the Russians know they could never truly be a world naval power or commercial sea power. Strategically, that element has not changed. However, with the breakup of the Soviet empire Russia has probably given up on a warm water port in the foreseeable future, but perhaps not in the long term.

However, the calculus has changed somewhat since Russia has become a petroleum exporter. As the petroleum exports from the Mideast are restricted, Russia’s fortunes rise. Consequently, it is in Russia’s economic interest to foment instability (up to a point) in the region to keep the petro-dollar income ever increasing. However, Russia’s interest in keeping the Mideast “pot stirred” has limits. Restricting the supply benefits them, but completely interrupting it creates the potential for a world economic collapse… something that would cut off their source of wealth. Consequently, Russia is willing to support certain elements for a while and then oppose them for a while purely in the interest of keeping oil prices high.

Russia’s opposition, if you will, to the US directly is of a different cast. Russia views the US as more of a “strategic competitor” than the type of enemy the Soviets saw. Additionally, Russia is acutely aware of the US is the sole remaining super power and does not wish to be at any more of a disadvantage on the international stage because this status differential than is absolutely necessary. Consequently, Russia sees it to its own advantage for them to supply, train and support “proxies” to tie up both, US military, and economic resources. Consequently, beyond the economic advantage that Russia can gain from fomenting instability in the Mideast, there is also an international political advantage as Russia sees it.

As a result, Russia will continue oppose the US both clandestinely and openly for as long as they perceive that the international situation has not reached a “tipping point.” Russia knows that if the situation goes beyond that “tipping point,” its own national prosperity or even survival could be jeopardized. Consequently, they are going to continually try to play both ends against the middle as close to that “tipping point” for as long as they can.

Thanks, your analysis makes sense.

The only good news is that Russia may not be in this game to destroy the U.S., just keep us in line.

There is much similarity of what you say about warning them, giving them time, allies etc.. to the pre-invasioon scenario of Iraq.

I simply don't think we can ignore the threat of ever expanding islamic expansion and ideology emanating from the KSA.... not even for the next two decades for the multitudes of reason given.

Bite the bullet

Good summary. Stop them ASAP, by any of the above means, rather than put it off and letting them increase their influence and power.

Thanks for your input,

Let me consider this for a while... I think I'm coming down with a flu or some other nasty, so I'm off to get something for that in a sec. I had really stopped by primarily to catch up on FReepmail and pings before I became swamped by it again.

How's your flu? Just surviving or into recovery yet?