Posted on 03/04/2011 9:52:04 AM PST by FromLori
Pretty much precisely what noted earlier today: "A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour."
PAYROLL REVIEW – NICE JOB, SHAME ABOUT THE PAYCHEQUE, from Gluskin Sheff
The widespread reaction to the jobs report today is uniformly positive. I think a dose of reality is really needed here. It may as well come from this pen. The headline print of +192k was in line with published estimates but following the slate of ISMs and the ADP report, the “whispered” number was closer to +250k. Of course, there were the upward revisions to the back-data that showed net gains of +58k so one could easily respond that adjusted for these, the topline did indeed meet these “whispered” estimates. The employment diffusion index jumped to a 13-year high of 68.2% from 60.1% in January, but beware of peaks and troughs in this index (i.e. it would have been a mistake to extrapolate the 17% low in this job dispersion measure at the March 2009 market trough).
Here is what I think is important: because of the winter storms, we really have to average out the past two months. So the January-February average for payrolls is +128k. Allowing for a similar reading in March that we received in February would generate an average increase for the first quarter of around 150k. That is little changed from what employment gains averaged on a monthly basis in the fourth quarter. So while we are seeing positive job growth, it is not accelerating even though we are coming off the most intense impact of the fiscal and monetary easing that was unveiled late last year. In other words, we are disappointed with what is still a lacklustre trend in net job creation, particularly in view of the peak stimulus we are currently experiencing.
What if Q1 is the peak for job growth? If you remember, we ended up with sub-3% GDP growth in the fourth quarter, which is about half of what we should be seeing at this stage of the cycle. And if we are generating jobs at a similar rate in the current quarter, barring a re-acceleration in productivity, growth again will be below 3% at a time when the consensus is closer to 3.5%. But more to the point — what if this represents the peak for the year? Because if there is one thing we do know, it is that this quarter contains all the incremental policy easing impact on the macro data.
What was particularly discouraging was the fact that both the wage number and the workweek were flat. Nominal wages, in fact, have been stagnant in three of the past four months. Weekly average earnings have also been flat or negative in three of the past four months. How on earth can these statistics possibly be viewed as bullish for the economy? The year-over-year-trend in average weekly earnings in the past three months has softened from 2.6% to 2.5% to 2.3% today. At the same time, it is probably reasonable to assume that surging food and fuel costs will bring headline inflation to, and possibly through, 3% in coming months. In other words, the growing risk of falling personal income in real terms, even with the positive growth in payrolls, is a glaring yellow light as far as the consumer spending outlook is concerned.
Aggregate hours worked only managed to tick up 0.2% in February after a flat January. That is total labour input — bodies and hours. So assuming a trend-like productivity performance, we are talking yet again about sub-3% GDP growth, which by itself is okay but considering the peak impact of all the fiscal and monetary steroids being administered this quarter, it is actually disappointing.
Yes, the unemployment rate dipped again to a 22-month low of 8.9% from 9.0% in January and the nearby high of 9.8% in November. This reflected a 250k risein Household employment — the third increase in a row — and a flat participation rate. A couple of behind-the-scene facts: from October to February, an epic 700k people have left the work force. If you actually adjust for the fact that the labour force participation rate has plunged this cycle to a 27-year low the unemployment would be sitting at 12% today. Moreover the employment-to-population ratio — the so-called “employment rate” — stagnated in February at 58.4% and is actually lower now than it was last fall when “double dip” was the flavour du jour.
All that matters in these employment reports is what the jobs environment means for income, because workers generally spend in the real economy. With credit harder to come by, and with fiscal policy soon to become more focussed on austerity, it is the income that the labour delivers that will prove to be the critical determinant of the economic outlook. So while the “spin” may be over near-200k headline payroll gains, another dip in the headline unemployment rate, the organic income backdrop can really only be described as tentative, at best, especially in real terms as gasoline prices make their way to $4 a gallon by the time Memorial Day rolls around.
"The Federal Government should be forbidden by Law from releasing statistics." Milton Friedman
“Anybody else want FromLori to quit?”
What is the issue?
I think some of us might be getting a little too flipped out with the use of constant personal attacks.
So much for conservative principles. It Marx's idea that what a person thinks depends on his income and class membership. That is what Notary expressed above; that is what has become common sense on this forum: if someone merely questions the bashing of capitalism, he must belong to the spooky class of capitalists --- hust as with all communists, no reasoning, no facts, of course.
Hey, FReepers, do you even recognize commie worldview when it stares at you?
Probably not. Well, enjoy; continue to serve as useful idiots; bash capitalist institution you do not understand -- Wall Street (make sure it's especially Goldman), CEOs and their bonuses, "obscene" profits of oil companies.
Your side is winning: useful idiots that bash capitalism without understanding of how it works helped put a commie in the White House. Enjoy.
Chill girl friend, don’t take it personal and it
won’t be personal, others here appreciate your posts.
See post #44. Some people have all the answers and become very emboldened from behind their keyboards. To me, it’s just noise.
TQ thinks she’s a commie.
Actually I think he thinks we are all commies.
Maybe he’s a commie, you never can tell, they
are like muslims.
It’s not capitalism when the banks are co-opted by the government.
Business can be criticized for it's excesses without saying “the whole system is rotten”.
But that is my opinion. I think a forum like this should be for others to express their viewpoints even if we see them as wrong.
Please don’t quit.
I know it is hard to be constantly LIED ABOUT.
The pro-bankers are false witnesses and slanders. They don’t even make comments related to the thread, or the post. They just attack and whine. Cowards and babies.
They are evil in their constant barrage of hate.
I appreciate your posts and the effort you make to bring financial issues to this site. Lots of Freepers are still in the dark, but more will wake up as time goes on.
I think everybody should hit the abuse button from now on when the “pro-bankers” make personal attacks against fromLori EVERY TIME THEY DO IT!
I know I started yesterday.
No, absolutely not.
I just don't know why some people feel the need to be so contentious and rude to her.
It takes quite a bit of effort to seek and find various articles and then to post them only to have the same people WHINE and complain over and over. Real discouraging for the person posting the articles.
I see what you are saying and I agree somewhat. I feel that many with their eyes open are trying to shine the light on raging Facism. Many Freepers are total advocates of capitalism, but that is not what we have in America.
I don't mind rhetorical sarcasm at all. But this was more than sarcasm. It suggested to conspiracy theorists on this tread that statistics are somehow hidden, which is false. You also falsely attributed publication to "Obama administration," although statistics are not handled by political appointees.
And you continue the same in your reply: "Only U3 gets wide dissemination." But wide dissemination is not handled by the government at all --- not by Obama and not even by BLS. It is up to the media to decide how well our dumbed-down population, victims of our schools and colleges, can read statistical tables.
For someone who knows the way to BLS publications and finds typos with easy, you exhibit too little of disciplined thinking and basic fairness. Your rhetorical devices would be just fine otherwise.
P.S. Hope no new typos will distract you from the point of this post.
No, absolutely not.
I just don't know why some people feel the need to be so contentious and rude to her.
It takes quite a bit of effort to seek and find various articles and then to post them only to have the same people WHINE and complain over and over. Real discouraging for the person posting the articles.
Ain't that he truth. Anyone siding with the bank cartels now are either employed by them or just so lonely they'd take al-Qaeda's side in an argument in hope of someone responding to them.
I am a capitalist, and when the company I work for suffers losses due to poor investment decisions (it has happened) what we do NOT do is run to the government for a 0.05% loan, or demand that the Treasury Department buy our junk assets with taxpayer money at far above market value.
We suck it up, book our losses like grownup men and women, and carry on. And every American CEO that does the same has my full and unqualified support.
I completely agree. If you find where they have been "co-opted" -- whatever that means -- let's hear it. I would like the perps to go to jail for subverting the democratic process and the Constitution of this great country.
So, let's hear it.
Warning: providing evidence may require you to understand what you are talking about. It may even require you to study the issue (no, I don't mean browsing the Web).
But, by all means, let's hear it. Put up or shut up.
OK
Above is post #3.
Prove to me TopQuark, where fromLori spewed ANY commie proganda, blamed GS, the Fed and the CEO bonuses IN THE POSTS BEFORE YOURS!!!!!!
LIAR
You can't TopQuark.
TopQuark is a LIAR
Show me something in my posts or in Lori's which is specifically "communist", bearing in mind that:
(1) The principle under law that he who wishes to collect a debt must prove he is rightfully entitled to collect is not communism;
(2) The idea that insolvent companies have a claim upon the US Treasury or the Federal Reserve for restoration of their solvency through asset purchase is not communism.
I don't.
I have seen plenty enough Bagdad Bennies to know they are lying.
This is faulty logic, I am sorry to say: seeing great many liars (I am so sorry you are surrounded by so many of them) has no relevance on the truthfulness of the next person.
You do know that the statistics he spouts have been squeezed, stomped, stretched, pounded and otherwise massaged in order to present what he wants them to look like. Don’t you? No, I do not. A few years back, I even known personally some of those people. Many of them are conservative. Lying in reports would require a massive conspiracy in which those people would never participate and would blow the whistle on other conspirators in a heartbeat.
You've just defamed innocent people with no visible hesitation. You think that violating basic Commandments and American traditions is conservative?
Most importantly, what I know is unimportant. Since you make accusations, what matters is your knowledge. So I asked in the previous post
:: If you have evidence that he misrepresents the data, let's hear it.
Wouldn't it be easier to answer the question rather than discussing what I know?
Just answer the question --- if you have anything to say, that is.
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