Skip to comments.The Coming Tea Party Tsunami and the Political Establishment
Posted on 09/20/2010 6:16:36 PM PDT by Pete
Remember when the Tsunami hit Thailand a few years ago? We saw tragic images of children playing on the beach just moments before the wave overcame and engulfed them. With regards to the Tea Party movement and politics in America, the elite media and the establishment political class (both Democrat and Republican) remind me of those children.
So we see Democrat strategists crafting messages for political gain. We see the likes of Karl Rove and Charles Krauthammer wringing their hands over who will hold committee chairmanships in the Senate.
Such chitter chatter reminds me of those poor children who may have been arguing over who gets to place the flag on the top of the sand castle not realizing that 1/4 mile off shore there was a 15 foot wall of water that was about to completely overwhelm them. And then they wonder why we don't pay them any mind.
The establishment is a power hoarding structure. It uses Creativity and Information (CI). It will try to consolidate its power as it crashes. The tea party is a power distributing structure. It uses Creativity, Information and Communication. It will continue to expand. The Communication component is both its method and message to distribute power.
That is not the only difference. The CI political establishment is centralized while the tea party is decentralized. This is a critical difference when it comes to robustness and power. See CIC and Complexity: The Tea Party as a Complex System.
The establishment and the tea party manifest their impacts on different scales. A complex system like the tea party operates on the individual person level but effects of the system can occur at a much higher level. This is called emergence. Emergent properties are not visible at lower scale (i.e. by looking at individual members of the tea party) and are not predictable by looking at the members of a system. Examples of an unexpected and unpredictable emergent property include the election of Scott Brown in Massachusetts and the primary losses of eight national office incumbents. I expect the results of November 2 will also be surprising.
More than November 2, I expect incumbent losses to accelerate in 2012 and 2014. Even before the 2012 election, expect to see pro-term limit activism increase. Pay attention to 10th amendment movements next year, especially in the context of the Health Care lawsuit. Finally, I believe we will see the tea party adopted in other countries as the effectiveness, impact and message are demonstrated.
The political and media elites will continue to be confounded by tea party success because they view things through a CI lens and seek answers at the wrong scale. That will not change until they understand that the tea party structure is decentralized power distributor.
“That will not change until they understand that the tea party structure is decentralized power distributor....”
IMHO, that realization could do NOTHING to change the outcome in their favor. It merely means that they no longer can control the dialogue...and consequently the outcome.
The Left ALWAYS has to control the dialogue...otherwise their lies become transparent and it collapses.
The first paragraph was just a horrible analogy to use. Surely the author should have known better.
I agree. It would be much more apropos to compare them to homosexual pedophiles frolicking on the beaches of Phu Ket before the tsunami.
I am the author. I am sorry you feel that way. The reason I used it was because I had received such positive feedback for its clarity when I used that analogy in a FR thread.
I used the analogy because that image of those children playing on the beach has haunted me since the tsunami. In no way did I mean to minimize that event by using the analogy and I certainly did not intend to offend.
Well I suppose he could have used the Pearl Harbor analogy, maybe the Titanic, the extinction of the dinosaurs,the death of Babe Ruth or Armageddon.
But he used the Tsunami in Thailand.I guess he is a twisted insensitive individual like all tea party supporters.
“More than November 2, I expect incumbent losses to accelerate in 2012 and 2014.”
I believe Nov 2 is the crest of the dispense-with-incumbents wave. Republicans were cleaned out in the 06 and 08 elections and the ‘10 primaries. Pretty well every Republican that can and should be blown out has been blown out.
Now it is time to aim and fire at the Dems. They will lose 6-10 Senators and 35-60 Reps, and those will be replaced by what is generally a very good conservative cohort of Republicans. In 2012/14 there will be fewer targets - few Republicans to dispense with because thy were all dispensed with in 06-10, and - THANKFULLY! - fewer Democrats.
After Nov 2012, it will be less about politics and much more about policy, about governing and making sure our small govt agenda does not get watered down.
I don’t think your analogy was inappropriate, Pete. I am less convinced about your “CI” and “CIC” thinking models, but I haven’t yet read your tutorial on that, so I’ll reserve judgment until after I at least give it a fair hearing.
The main point in your tsunami analogy is spot on, I believe, in that we are wasting time worrying and fussing over minutia when a much more serious catastrophe is not far in the future. This is what some like Dr. Niall Ferguson of Harvard have called the “trigger event” that will cause a lack of confidence in our over-extended financial system and unknown economic peril.
I think the Tea Party represents a philosophical opposition to increasing debt to finance an expanding government that imposes further limits on individual freedom. But fundamentally it’s about economics, not social issues.
Time to see if this was right.
the Tea Party will be 21st Century government...the socialized Western democracies are the exhausted relics of the 20th century Cold War. Their deficits are an inverse marker of their utility to society and the individual.
The only question is how easily and gracefully the former powers that be will depart the stage and accept reality
This is an excellent post Pete. tnx
And thereby hangs the tale of their confusion. They live in a bubble of group-think. Of course they don't know because going outside the protective bubble is . . . unthinkable. It would never occur to any of the MSM to do so.
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