Skip to comments.A Republican tsunami? My official election prediction for the House of Representatives.
Posted on 10/22/2010 9:46:05 AM PDT by MichaelNewton
So here is my official prediction for the House of Representatives:
Republicans gain 61 seats and finish with 239 seat, about 55% of the total. This is more than the 50-seat gain predicted at FiveThirtyEight and the 58-seat gain predicted by RCP, but less than some others are talking about. On the low end, I would expect Republicans to win 50 seats. So my low end projection is equal to FiveThirtyEights middle-of-the-road projection. On the high end, I think it unlikely that Republicans win more than 76 seats*, much less than some are saying is possible. (I will update this prediction in the comments section as new polls come in.)
(Excerpt) Read more at thepathtotyranny.wordpress.com ...
I randomly picked about 60 congressional districts races in 2008, and found that the standard deviation for percentage of votes is about 17.
Plugging that into a z distribution table tells me that if we get 58% of the vote we will get 68% of the seats.
Of course this assumes a normal distribution and the gerrymandering does play a little bit of havoc with that.
I don’t actually expect us to get 58% of the vote by the way, I think 54-55 is much more likely, nut I think 54-55% of the vote could translate into 58-60% of the seats.
It’s less a tsunami than a TEAnami.
2006: Dems 53.6% vote, 53.6% seats (two party vote share)
2008: Dems 55.6% vote, 59.1% seats (two party vote share)
So that extra 2% could give the Republicans and extra 5.5% seats. But the Democrats were the incumbents in the 2008 election and it was a Presidential election year. I think 2006 is more similar.
It should be obvious where the undecided are going to break. Anybody under 50% should start packing boxes.
Pray for America
OK. I ran some data on House election going back to 1968. I started by totally ignoring party and incumbency biases, assuming a totally blank slate.
I then ran the numbers and determined there was no incumbency bias (R^2 of 0.022). I then checked for party bias and found a very low correlation (R^2 0.1178) which should include Democratic vote fraud. So I ignored these and went with my “straight” model.
Based on this “straight” model, the Republicans should get 61.1% of the House seats (266) if they win 54.9% of the vote (my median target). At the high end, they’ll get 69.2% of the House seats (301) if they win 58.5% of the vote (my high end target). At the low end, if the Republicans win 52.5% of the vote and capture 55.7% (242 seats).
So based on this, my median 61 seat gain prediction “should” be 88 seats. The range shifts from 50-76 seats gained to 64-123 seats gained.
So which should I go with. The median estimate of 61 or 88? Statistically, I should go with the 88. But I truly believe the country and parties have become more partisan and that the old models don’t work. As a result, gerrymandered seats are hard to switch. The majority party has underperformed this model the last four elections by an average of 4%, which would be a 17 seat different. Thus an 88 seat gain would end up being a 71 seat gain.
Thank you for beating me to it. I hate the "trolling for hits" maneuver. The guy could have dynamite logic and superb prose, but I'll never see it.
Media are trying to play out the Dem message of tightening races and the Senate not flipping.
Folks Ive talked to say the Conservatives & Republicans have a chance at 100 seats in the House ALONE.
7 posted on October 24, 2010 12:49:17 AM GMT+09:00 by combat_boots
100 seats in the House
10 seats in the Senate
I believe that I had 61 and 8 back in Jan after Scott Brown won.
Boehner: GOP could pick up 100 seats
Sunday, May 02, 2010 9:13:51 PM · 92 of 94
CPT Clay to GonzoGOP
Sounds about right.
I Predict +61 in the house and +8 in the Senate.
Lets just say from 61 to 88?
Updated prediction at http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-bloggers/2613614/posts
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