Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
Its already happening with CNN.
Really? So, you haven't been bothered by all of the nasty, snarling posts by PDSers on the Palin threads over the last two and a half years? Or the attacks that are routinely leveled against anyone who dares to disagree with Perry on the Perry threads?
Sounds to me like you're harboring some double standards.
Oh my, you do have your head stuck in the sand, don’t you? She made many tough decisions in her time as governor. She even threw both Republicans and Democrats in jail. And, let’s be honest - sometimes longevity in a position is too long - if that makes sense. People get lukewarm about their jobs and fail to make good decisions. After all, once their terms are up - they have their sights set on the next job offer, and are always looking in that direction.
Nope, I think your reasoning is faulty. So, she was for a bridge before she had all the facts? Big friggin’ deal. Let’s take her out and hang her for that. That sure isn’t as bad as what some of the other candidates have done - gosh, some of you want utopia, perfection, and it doesn’t exist.
Playing devil’s advocate, obviously Romney’s main competition is Perry and Cain is nothing more than an boutique candidate. No Perry, Romney is easier.
“Not so. One interview doesn’t determine ability. People don’t even remember that and those that do see the body of work she has since then.”
Many people watched and remembered the interviews. She fumbled all of them, including Hannity’s. Anyone can write a speech for someone else. If you can’t show up to defend your views then they aren’t your views.
It’s like the Perry flipflop charge against Romney. It was obvious he was trying to remember something that someone else wrote for him.
>>And then she drives her stiletto through your instep, spins and walks off with the class stud, leaving you there to sop up the blood with one of your baseball cards.
Wow. You are about as sarcasm-impaired as most Democrats!
>> “Just look at the comments on this thread to see how few hold this view.” <<
.
All but the bed wetters.
19 months?
How about 14 months until the election!
That said Palin has until the third week in October to get in.
The latter the better.
Oh, so, you agree with zero about someone being rich? Do I hear class warfare in your post? She and her family were nearly broke about 3 years ago - due to all the trumped up ethics charges. God has blessed them and I say - amen! Do I hear some green-eyed jealousy? I think so.
Totally agree; Perry and Romney are still the frontrunners in my opinion. Cain is a longshot, although his recent strong performances should give him the fundraising ability to remain in the race a bit longer.
If one or both of the frontrunners implode he could find himself in a very good position. I don't think any of the remaining (announced) candidates are credible threats to win the nomination. No traction, not enough money, and in some cases personal credibility issues...
Trust me Perry folks have been much worse but they are in hiding now big time. It is hard supporting Sarah because she has not declared but doing so has so far proved smart big time. Perry has self destructed and is done, Romney is next whether Saran helps him is the real question. We The Folks are going to select who the next nominee so get used to it.
So NOTHING negative can ever be overcome? The practice with interviews she’s had since then, getting more experience on the national scene, her ability to answer off the cuff questions of the press with ease will have absolutely NO effect. Gosh, I’d better go back to school because I failed Algebra the first time around. Maybe the teacher thought my new understanding was a fluke and only judged me on my first try.
By the way, who writes her speeches?
Cindie
>> “Well, a Cain/Palin ticket gives us a possible sixteen years of constitutionalist presidents” <<
.
More likely 4 years.
Cain is not the leader, Palin is, Cain would be the student. He knows nothing about government, nothing about foreign affairs, but has good business experience, and skills.
Cain’s position on the Fed is a killer from the word go. We would continue falling into the depression that the Fed deliberately created, without relief.
Really? Just look around at what your fellow Palin supporters are posting. I am here to defend an honest, solid Conservative. Cain. Why? Because others here feel that Palin is the only pure and clean politician that ever strode the Earth. I am not calling for any such purity and Utopia. I am just arguing that Cain has every qualification to be a great President.
You can put all your eggs in the Palin(™) basket...I don't give a good g-damn, but you are being played by PT Barnum incarnate...and it is passed time that some freeper called it what it is.
Romney’s been in the catbird seat this whole run, untouched. He’s accumulating cash, and positioning for a post-South Carolina primary roll that will be unstoppable. The best chance to stop him is a Christie or Giuliani entry, splitting the Establishment vote to let one Conservative candidate to slip through. Tough.
Maybe, maybe not. You could have said the same thing a week ago, but that would have been before Rick Perry sawed off the high branch he was perched on.
Obviously, Sarah is savvy enough to realize that Perry would probably shoot himself in the foot soon enough, and that she should bide her time for another week or two. Who knows how many other cars will blow up during the next two weeks of the demolition derby?
Also, don't forget that the Republican primary will be going on for another half a year, and that few people outside of us news/political junkies are even paying attention at this point.
Palin is wise to conserve hers and her supporters time, energy, and resources for as long as she can. She gains nothing by entering the race until she absolutely has to.
“Isn’t it convenient how her years of public service and fighting bureaucracy and corruption within her own party before even getting to the governorship are totally ignored? Did you watch her debate the Republican and the Democrat for the governorship?”
I did watch it. She didn’t have this grating, high pitched Roseanne Barr voice that she adopted after 2008. Something changed.
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