Skip to comments.Wait, Sarah, Wait (Delay Continues to be Palin's Ally)
Posted on 09/25/2011 12:42:05 PM PDT by Brices Crossroads
It is hard to argue that Sarah Palin's delay in formally announcing her candidacy has been anything other than a smashing success. I have been among a minority who have contended from the outset that Governor Palin's delay in announcing was prudent strategy both for financial as well as political reasons. She has been able to campaign both in Iowa and New Hampshire within the last month, garnering huge amounts of publicity and the largest crowds of the campaign season. Her crony capitalism speech in Indianola on September 3 has driven the debate (as well as the GOP debates) even in her absence from the stage. It exposed the first chink in the armor of James Richard Perry, who has continued to bumble his chances, as some of us predicted he would. Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann has virtually disappeared from the radar screen, and is rumored to be broke, having poured every resource she had into winning the meaningless Ames Straw poll and paying the likes of Ed Rollins. And Mitt Romney remains in the low twenties, unable to put any daylight between himself and the weak field he faces. Romney's weakness--in the face of his opponents' implosion--has led the Establishment to begin to trot out what must be its last reserves, to wit: Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, a liberal Establishment Republican to the left even of Romney.
Sarah Palin has positioned herself beautifully, as events have unfolded in the last month, by not formally announcing. And she has spent not one dime doing it. On August 14, I argued here that the principal reason for her to delay is financial. The Establishment is already funding two major candidates, Romney and Perry. They are trying to launch a third, Chris Christie. Well heeled to be sure, the GOP Establishment does not have limitless funds, and the burn rate for Romney and Perry (plus Christie, if he gets in) will stretch its resources to the limit.
Sarah Palin will, I argue, have adequate funds, but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar. By waiting, she spends nothing while the Establishment spear carriers flit from straw poll to straw poll to fundraiser, spending cash by the boatload, to so little effect that a third major Establishment candidate is now poised to enter.
Sarah Palin is husbanding her resources while the Establishment is spending hand over fist, while dividing its admittedly much larger warchest several ways. In effect, Palin--who will be the insurgent candidate--is evening the odds. She is learning from some of the mistakes of the 1976 and 1980 Reagan campaigns, which overspent early in both cycles and ran out of money both times, costing the Gipper the nomination in 1976 and very nearly derailing him in 1980. Her delaying game, coupled with the multiplication of Establishment candidacies (a divide and conquer strategy, so to speak), has put her in the catbird seat.
Moreover, her delay is forcing the Establishment to play its cards first...to put its candidates out front first for the public to scrutinize. Palin knows that her formal announcement would take the spotlight and scrutiny, as well as the pressure, off the Establishment candidates since all eyes would then turn to her. And she is not about to give her Establishment opponents such a break. The vetting process has been very hard on the new candidates so far, and Palin is wisely allowing it to continue.
Meanwhile, under the radar screen, she is better organized than any of the declared candidates, with her O4P legions in nearly every state, particularly Iowa, quietly assembling names of volunteers and positioning themselves to strike as soon as she gives the word.
A Civil War analogy comes to mind. At Second Manassas in August 1862, Robert E. Lee was confronted with two Union Armies, whose combined strength was far greater than his own. He realized that he had to prevent them from uniting in order to defeat them separately. Understanding that the first Army--commanded by the timid George B. McClellan---would move slowly, Lee turned his attention to the other, commanded by the impetuous John Pope. Lee sent half his Army under Stonewall Jackson, perhaps 25,000 men, to lure Pope into battle, while keeping the other half, under James Longstreet, with him. Jackson mounted a lightning strike on the federals at Cedar Mountain, driving Pope back to the Rappahanock River, and then old Stonewall vanished into the Bull Run Mountains. Jeb Stuart hit him next, raiding Pope's headquarters and making off with $350,000 in cash and Pope's dress coat. Pope, enraged, took off after Jackson. When he finally found him two weeks later, Jackson was dug in on the railroad cut at the old Bull Run Battlefield from a year earlier.
Pope hurled his army of 62,000 against Jackson, trying to dislodge the stubborn rebels. At the end of the first day, Jackson's lines had wavered but held. Meanwhile, unbeknownst to Pope, Lee had brought up the second half of his Army under Longstreet and positioned it on the federal left, concealed by the dense foliage. The next day, Pope renewed his attack on a two mile front, stretching Jackson's line to the breaking point. Civil War historian Bruce Catton sets the scene:
"The Yankees drove against Jackson on a two mile front stretching his line to the breaking point. His men threw rocks at the attackers when their ammunition ran out. Still Longstreet waited. Not until the last Yankee reserves had been thrown against Jackson did he take action. Then he launched his counterattack. An artillery barrage smashed the left side of the Union forces. Rebel infantry, 'screaming like demons emerging from the earth', fell upon the surprised Yankees as Longstreet's five divisions rolled against the Union flank.... As Pope tried to halt Longstreet on his left, Jackson hit him on the right. The whole Union line bent like a horseshoe."
Palin's hit and run tactics of last summer in Iowa and New Hampshire are reminiscent of Jackson's and Stuart's tactics in August 1862. She continues to live rent free in the heads of the permanent political class, and her lightning strikes have forced them to react to HER, rather than forcing her to react to THEM. Just when the Establishment begins to hope it is rid of her, she pops up unexpectedly, and strikes it a blow that sends it reeling. At the same time, she manages to keep her intentions (and especially her timing) obscure enough to deny her enemies an easy fix on her as a target.
The huge vacuum in the current field, coupled with the many hints she has dropped over the last four months, suggest that Palin will enter the fray, but at the last possible moment, when the maximum amount of the Establishment's reserves, both financial and political, have been exhausted, or at least committed. Her entry will generate a tidal wave of excitement and energy, a political feu d'enfer reminiscent of the artillery barrage at Second Manassas, through which her legions of supporters will pour to vanquish the tattered, dispirited Hessian hirelings of the Establishment.
To those who are pleading "Run, Sarah, run", my rejoinder is "Wait, Sarah, wait." Strike when the maximum advantage has been gained. Not before.
>>I responded at the same level, but a bit more in tune with real life.
Really?? Does Sarah Palin have a history of causing bodily injury to people who ask her on dates? You should let the media know about that!
>> “The Govt can be run like a business. In many of Cains speeches, he enumerates how this can be achieved.” <<
No, he enumerates how he imagines it might be achieved, but a minimal amount of analysis shows his assumptions about how government does things is deeply flawed.
Chamomilla. They're for teething pain with irritability. Gave 'em to all of our kids.
Do ya think maybe what's-his-name is having teething problems, and that's why all of his posts sound like a baby crying?
No matter how many times I post links to the truth, every time a lie is told, I repost the truth. Sometimes to the same posters. Because people read without posting. A lie, left uncountered, becomes "truth".
Hes good at talking about his own ideas and plans, but he fails to resonably show how they will work as applied to government.
Do you have any specific cites?
You should have dated more attractive girls! :o)
Rather it is we who are waiting for the miracle, It's name is Sarah, and it will come, in her time not ours.
She knows what she is doing, she's known all along. Those who are getting all uptight due to her refusal to march to the beat of the “that's not how we always used to do it” drummer, for the most part, just have their collective panties in a wad because she learned a priceless lesson from the McCain fiasco; Those who refuse to walk boldly into the future and do what “needs” to be done, rather then what has always been done in the past, but is clearly NOT going to be effective in the future are dummed to failure before they ever begin.
She is not just marching into the future, she is running full out into it, daring it to try and stop the force her astonishing momentum creates everywhere she goes.
Welcome to the future, get on board and buckle up cuz it's going to be one heck of a ride!
I think Bachman has some potential but she has become too caught up in the political game and playing it according to the rules of the elite. Instead of being a classic politician and worrying about who likes you or playing a different role for each group out there, be yourself and put your conservative views out there. Honesty and the willingness to fight hard for your beliefs even when they call you names is more appealing in a candidate than a flip-flopping fish on the beach like mitt the twit. This is about the Constitution and the Republic and it is not a battle we can afford to lose again.
FUBO & FAD
Thanks for posting the links to those two posting histories, Norm. Sometimes it takes looking at someone’s posting history to clearly see a pattern of abuse or trollish behavior.
This stuff has become too silly to even fathom anymore. I see nothing coming.
Cain looks better and better. And he is real.
>> “specific cites?” <<
How did you like his answer on “right of return?”
Here we go with the projection again. Just like the snide insults you leveled at me when you swore that Palin was announcing on Constitution Day. How did that turn out for you? You are just another angry Palin supporter fuming that you have to sit on the sidelines while all the other candidates are actually in there running.
Feel free to keep jumping in and battling the non believers. The fact is that right now Rick Santorum has a 100% chance of winning the WH over Palin right now. Know why? He is actually announced and in the race to win unlike Palin.
"And that is why you fail." ~ Master Yoda
Indy, you say people aren’t seeing Undefeated. I happen to know that’s not right. The Palin hive on FB is all abuzz with excitement over the availability of the movie. People are throwing viewing parties, inviting nonsupporters.
So you are factually wrong. Perhaps your being embedded in the GOP apparatus has put you in social circles that prevent you from seeing the broader picture, but this movie is being seen and is having an impact.
Will it be enough to reverse all the misinformation floating around out there? Not by itself, of course. Many other modalities of messaging are and will be used. But it is a potent and helpful weapon that will make a significant difference.
As for paying to see “propaganda,” why not? I would think if you had given full consideration to Palin as a candidate, you would know so much about her you would be able to see through any misrepresentations. In fact, wouldn’t it make your position stronger if you could say you saw the movie and thus and such is wrong with it, etc.? After all, serious opinion shapers have to go to primary sources to be taken seriously. So why else could you possibly want to avoid seeing the movie? If you like, I’ll buy you a copy and send it to you, free of charge. Game on?
Excuse me, but it's you "non believers" who keep jumping on the Palin threads and spewing the same tired talking points, ad infinitum.
If you and your cohorts weren't worried that she just might join the race and (gasp!) win the nomination, you'd be so bored with Palin threads that you wouldn't even bother reading them.
I really think it’s the way to go with the Trolls. Point it out, link it and let the readers decide. PDSers and trolls in general are not interested in debate, they just want to stir crap and get a reaction.
They can scream ‘thread cop’, they can call it ‘cyberstalking’ They can accuse me of ‘threatening and bullying’ and they have. Don’t much care. Got me a VK shield that deflects that nonsense real well ;) A salted slug and an exposed troll give the same reaction...lots of writhing around with no relief in sight.
Their own words aren’t so easily avoided. Most people never bother to check and see who they are dealing with. If more did, the trolls would have no one, or fewer at least, to ‘play with’ and FR would benefit from the due diligence of all.
Norm, check magritte out - his posting history tells the tale, all right. He’s right here:
My comment is #172.
Well, it seems like waiting to announce her candidacy is paying off for Sarah, if indeed that is what she is doing. It is almost October, and I think she should announce sooner rather than later. But it is her decision and she does have very good political instincts.
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