Well waiting has made Perry into a second tier candidate and Romney is being demoted as I type. Romney does not represent conservatives in this party. It is time for a true conservative that can win to step up. Sarah the stage is set and I love when a plan come to together.
Palin better get in before the conservative GOP majority coalesces around Herman Cain!
I’ll say this: all of those on FR that were bashing Palin for no getting in and waiting, look silly right now. There is still money still on the sidelines, there are many voters who still hadn’t made up their mind about any one of the current candidates and there is STILL no clear frontrunner.
Saved for the coming deadline filings in the primary states where most of them are coming in mid to late Oct. She is on target with Perry collapsing, Bachmann having already collapsed and Mitt with soft, soft support. Palin is right in the mix
Seems to me the decision they are facing is to announce before S. Korea or after. Her speech is at the opening, on October 11th - 10th would be a travel day, and the earliest return would be the 12th. The window closes primary-wise on 10/31. My bet is that it will be prior to SK given the Perry swoon, and it will be this coming week... (but I was also sure on Constitution day - the last day prior to 10/31 with real solid Tea-Party-Meaning.)
Well done. Interesting analysis, quite persuasive.
Sarah has a lot of fans, who are willing to contribute. But you get the big Establishment money by offering pork in return, and that’s not Sarah’s way.
Obama will have billions at his disposal when the general election rolls around, basically laundered tax money. But his poll numbers have paid an enormous price.
Keep waiting. We’ll just go for CAIN
There is nothing to be gained by waiting any longer. If Palin has courage in her convictions, she will rise without waiting.
Look what Cain has done. He was one of the first to enter. He has upped the ante on himself with solid performance. How great is that?
In the end, whether she sits out longer or not, there will still be plenty of time for debates and scrutiny. There is the initial glory, and then the focus is on you.
Perry was the rage and blew it in a couple debates.
Many forget around here that Palin appears on FOX only and the internet. She has negatives that are not being removed by sitting it out.
Time to step up and quit waiting for some miracle to fall in your lap.
If a person does not watch FOX or follow internet politics, all they hear of Palin is the salacious and negative gossip.
She gets to enjoy one more moose hunting season and I get to enjoy watching Perry implode as Mitt fades.
We are watching the Art of War, and Madame Palin has won every battle so far.
The only problem with your Civil War analogy is that the South ultimately lost the war even though they had better generals and leaders. It was the vast resources of the North that won in the end.
Let us hope that your analogy doesn’t go so far as to see Sarah lose. She will be facing vast resouces of the “establishment” that don’t realize they are passe.
Once more, a superb post. Thank you!
Can't be emphasized enough and, at this point, would be the chief reason for Palin waiting until the last possible minute to enter this race. Christie will be no threat if he gets in but finances are definitely still an issue, as the GOP-E will obviously continue to work to shut off her access to big donors. Other than that, she can get in at any time from this point forward. Her call.
Great perspective as usual, BC.
I personally don’t believe Palin will declare candidacy, but this is a well-written essay. Nicely done.
This article is *very illuminating* - thanks for posting.
The sheer amount of money and work needed to be in early and not fade is something I simply hadn’t considered: also I hadn’t truly internalised the fact that every Conservative candidate is at war with the whole GOP.
These early recognition battles are fights fought in a desert: and the GOP controls most of the wells. There really is a ‘best’ time to jump in.
Also: if GOP conservatives did coalesce about Cain - as some have suggested - then I’m sure (like many of us) Palin wouldn’t regard that as the worst thing in the world. She might well endorse him.
Good points about Sarah Palin waiting to get into political race.
Was this added for comic relief? Just look at the comments on this thread to see how few hold this view.
She has done a masterful job of avoiding the circular firing squad the Republican wannabes have (once again) let the media form them into, though, hasn't she?
“but she will not be able to match the Establishment dollar for dollar”
I disagree with this, I think she’ll unleash a torrent of cash that is currently waiting for a real candidate
--Sun Tzu, "The Art of War"