I’m playing with a new theory, comparing 2012 to 2008. Previously, I have equated Romney 2012 with McCain 2008.
Now I’ve decided that Romney 2012 is Romney 2008, only 4 years better at politics.
In my new theory, Gingrich is McCain, who wallowed in single-digits until December, and then came on strong.
Perry plays the part of Fred Thompson, friend of McCain, who some think entered the race to draw votes away from other conservatives, holding the place for McCain to come back.
If so, in 2012 Perry was the man who entered the race simply because Gingrich wasn’t doing well. In this conjecture, the two are friends (we know they are, and Gingrich wrote the forward for the Perry book). Since Gingrich had no money, Perry picked up many of Gingrich’s people (he did), and the thought was either Perry survives, or he holds off others long enough for Gingrich.
If this theory is true, then Perry is going to South Carolina for the same reason Huckabee claims Thompson did, even when Thompson was clearly done — because Gingrich needs Perry to pull some evangelicals from Santorum, who is clearly the 2012 version of Huckabee — a strong social conservative, a bit of a big-government conservative, a bit compassionate conservative, who came on strong and shocked people in Iowa.
So Perry, like Thompson, holds off Santorum long enough for Gingrich to squeak by. And Romney is Romney, pulling a solid but not majority vote, destined to do well, but never end up with enough delegates to win because he’ll never get the majority.
At some point, we might even expect Santorum to stay on just to stop Romney. Like Huckabee did for McCain in 2008.
Anyway, I’m not saying this is how it has to be, or that there was a real effort made by candidates — it’s just a bit odd how the parallels seem to work.
Fascinating comparison. And close. Santorum is more genuine than Huckabee, though. His kids haven’t killed puppies and he hasn’t written a lying book about his personal transformation like the Huckster. Santorum wouldn’t lie if a cross were in his Christmas ad, either. He’d appreciate it, rather than mock viewers like Huck did.
And Santorum would never dress his obese family, if he had an obese family, all in horizontal stripes, be choking the dog, and take a Christmas photo of it all.
Excellent post!
Perry can’t “hold off” Santorum. And the ONLY one both Perry and Santorum are hurting by staying in is NEWT.
Romney’s loving it. Same goes for RuPaul. He’s Mittens’ stalking horse.