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Is California in Play for the GOP?
http://toddkinsey.com/blog/2012/03/04/is-california-in-play-for-the-gop/ ^

Posted on 03/04/2012 10:26:23 AM PST by Todd Kinsey

For the first time since the days of Reagan the Republican Party has a real chance of winning a national election in California. You read that right, not only is Dianne Feinstein’s Senate seat in real jeopardy for the first time since she took office in 1992 but President Obama has his work cut out for him as well.

Once thought untouchable, Sen. Feinstein’s poll numbers are at an all time low. According to a report by CBS Los Angeles, Feinstein’s approval rating has dropped to a dismal 41 percent. Furthermore, even amongst her Democrat base, Feinstein only receives a 60 percent approval rating. And like the rest of the country, only 9 percent of Californians approve of the job Congress is doing.

In 2010, Senator Barbara Boxer had the fight of her life and narrowly defeated Republican upstart Carly Fiorina. The DNC had to pull out all the stops in defense of the longtime Democrat stronghold. For starters, Sen. Boxer had to spend a whopping $28 million which was nearly double what she had to spend in her previous election.

Sensing potential defeat in California, which would have been an even bigger political slap in the face than Scott Brown winning in Massachusetts, President Obama had to make no less than three trips to California in a desperate attempt to save Boxer’s seat. But the president’s coattails are all but nonexistent in 2012 and he will be fighting to save his own political life this November.

(Excerpt) Read more at toddkinsey.com ...


TOPICS: Government; Politics
KEYWORDS: blogpimp; california; feinstein; obama; republican
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1 posted on 03/04/2012 10:26:31 AM PST by Todd Kinsey
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To: Todd Kinsey

No, the misery of Detroit never caused Detroitians to stop voting democrat.


2 posted on 03/04/2012 10:29:19 AM PST by MNDude
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To: Todd Kinsey

no


3 posted on 03/04/2012 10:29:49 AM PST by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: smokingfrog

Ummm...OK, apparently it’s NOT in play—that’s what you’re saying? :0)


14 posted on 03/04/2012 10:31:10 AM PST by Future Snake Eater (Don't stop. Keep moving!)
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To: Todd Kinsey

There’s no way Calif. would go republican.


15 posted on 03/04/2012 10:31:24 AM PST by unkus (Silence Is Consent)
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To: Todd Kinsey

One thing people outside of California do not know is that illegal immigrants have been leaving California to go back to Mexico and to go to other states because there’s no work here. This is the base of the Democratic Party and they have been moving out.


16 posted on 03/04/2012 10:32:04 AM PST by WashingtonSource
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To: smokingfrog

Yeah, what you said. =8-0


17 posted on 03/04/2012 10:32:17 AM PST by fieldmarshaldj
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To: Todd Kinsey

CA is fool’s gold. Even if the polls look favorable, the polls don’t ask the illegals who they are voting for and we all know they vote.


18 posted on 03/04/2012 10:32:34 AM PST by OrangeHoof (Obama: The Dr. Kevorkian of the American economy.)
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To: Todd Kinsey

And I fart moonbeams, Todd....


19 posted on 03/04/2012 10:33:00 AM PST by Gaffer
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To: Todd Kinsey

No, it’s a waste of money. Just like my state of Ct. Put the money in the swing states. Period, end of story.


20 posted on 03/04/2012 10:34:32 AM PST by jwalsh07
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To: Todd Kinsey

The GOP has a better chance winning the electorate of Afghanistan than it does of California.The best the GOP can hope for California is that it secedes and becomes part of the electoral apparatus of Mexico.


21 posted on 03/04/2012 10:35:20 AM PST by chuckee
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To: Todd Kinsey

Not holding my breath on this notion.


22 posted on 03/04/2012 10:38:22 AM PST by Attention Surplus Disorder (The only economic certainty: When it all blows up, Krugman will say we didn't spend enough.)
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To: Todd Kinsey

Illegals vote in proxy for the deceased, aided by Social Justice advocates (thiefs) and Big Union Bosses.


23 posted on 03/04/2012 10:38:36 AM PST by wac3rd (Somewhere in Hell, Ted Kennedy snickers.....)
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To: Todd Kinsey

Is the stuff the author is smoking medical grade?


24 posted on 03/04/2012 10:40:04 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: Todd Kinsey
California is now a Catholic state.
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25 posted on 03/04/2012 10:44:19 AM PST by ansel12 (Rick Santorum, Catholic, “I was basically pro-choice all my life, until I ran for Congress,” he sa)
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To: Paleo Conservative

According to the writer’s bio, he is from Texas, not California. Despite the impending bankruptcy of California, there is a big majority of takers here, who only want to maintain the RAT status quo. The RAT legislature proposes new voting bloc spending programs daily. There is no hope for California.


26 posted on 03/04/2012 10:48:32 AM PST by Sam Clements
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To: Todd Kinsey

Wow...last time around it was 61% to 37%. That’s a tough hill to climb.

And this state recently elected Moonbeam.

I’d spend the money elsewhere.

There are a few places where Bammy one...and he shouldn’t win again: Indiana, Florida, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico. These 5 states represent 60 electoral votes (vs 55 for CA); and, winning them should be ‘do-able’.

That’s a 120 vote swing.

By my count, the ‘safe’ GOP states netted 6 electoral votes from the census.

That’s a 12 vote swing.

So, based on last election, that leaves the Republican candidate in search of 31 more votes. Any two of the three: Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, would get them past that hump.

Virginia and North Carolina should be ‘flippable’ also, based on 2004 results.

In short, lots of ways to succeed, without blowing money in California.


27 posted on 03/04/2012 10:49:14 AM PST by lacrew (Mr. Soetoro, we regret to inform you that your race card is over the credit limit.)
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To: Todd Kinsey

Not happening - every four years somebody suggests the possibility of this happening and every four years it doesn’t


28 posted on 03/04/2012 10:49:29 AM PST by capydick (''Life's tough.......it's even tougher if you're stupid.'')
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To: Todd Kinsey

Seems I’m not the first to log in with “no”


29 posted on 03/04/2012 10:50:38 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: jwalsh07

Exactly. I mean CA went further LEFT in 2010 as pretty much everywhere else went RIGHT.

Talk about a fools errand.


30 posted on 03/04/2012 10:51:51 AM PST by RIghtwardHo
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To: Todd Kinsey

Someone is smoking the funny stuff!


31 posted on 03/04/2012 10:54:10 AM PST by US_MilitaryRules (Unnngh! To many PDS people!)
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To: Todd Kinsey

Am I the only one that feels like he has been reading that headline every two years since about 1990?


32 posted on 03/04/2012 11:07:55 AM PST by Tupelo ( 2012 TEA PARTYER but no longer a Republican)
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To: Todd Kinsey

Am I the only one that feels like he has been reading that headline every two years since about 1990?


33 posted on 03/04/2012 11:08:04 AM PST by Tupelo ( 2012 TEA PARTYER but no longer a Republican)
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To: Todd Kinsey

No, Calfornia is not in play.

Boxer won, yes narrowly, but still won in an election year when the GOP swept the other 49 states. California was the only state in the nation to go more Democrat despite this national sweep.

California is hopeless. Feinstein will be re-elected for life until she bows out and is replaced by a new socialist Democrat elect for life.

California is completely hopeless. We Californians are doomed. That is why my only hope lies in leaving, not in staying.

California is doomed. Bank on it.


34 posted on 03/04/2012 11:08:34 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (The only priority: Repeal Obamacare)
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To: ansel12

bump!!!


35 posted on 03/04/2012 11:09:58 AM PST by Freedom_Is_Not_Free (The only priority: Repeal Obamacare)
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To: Sam Clements

The author is a blog pimp.


36 posted on 03/04/2012 11:13:45 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: Todd Kinsey

Is there a big earthquake due?


37 posted on 03/04/2012 11:14:29 AM PST by bmwcyle (I am ready to serve Jesus on Earth because the GOP failed again)
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To: Todd Kinsey

If this year’s Republican presidential candidate chooses a charismatic Hispanic vice-presidential candidate such as Marco Rubio, it will not be business as usual in California.

Or in the entire country. Not only California but also New York with ITS heavy Hispanic population are MUST-WIN states for the Democrats. If it’s close in those two states during the election season, the Democrats will have no choice but to throw everything they have into those two states — leaving the other 48, and victory, to the Republicans.

Of course, the pro-Obama MSM does not want the public to think about such an outcome, which would discourage potential Obama contributors and campaign workers from getting involved — any more than the producers of Alfred Hitchcock movies wanted the endings of their films to be divulged beforehand, since audiences would then be discouraged from attending them.

But there’s no reason for Republicans and other reasonable people to help maintain the suspense. If California is not firmly in the Democrats’ column even now, it will definitely not be after a prominent Hispanic American is asked to join a presidential ticket for the first time — unless, of course, he or she dies of a heart attack while walking down a street alone at one a.m. before the announcement can be made official.


38 posted on 03/04/2012 11:16:08 AM PST by Bluestocking
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To: lacrew

I agree Republicans shouldn’t spend money there, but dems may have to to win it which is good because it will mean they can’t spend it in a battle ground state.


39 posted on 03/04/2012 11:19:20 AM PST by scbison
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To: Todd Kinsey

In a word? No.


40 posted on 03/04/2012 11:19:24 AM PST by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: Todd Kinsey

California is hopelessly lost. It’s barely part of America anymore.


41 posted on 03/04/2012 11:23:52 AM PST by WeatherGuy
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To: Freedom_Is_Not_Free

I pulled out of California back in 1979, when I was in my late twenties. I am sixty now, and I never looked back. It’s a crying shame what happened to California; it used to be paradise, but now it is a third-world cesspool run by hard-core leftists. Might as well bury it and save the rest of the country from the stink of its decaying carcass.


42 posted on 03/04/2012 11:25:53 AM PST by ought-six ( Multiculturalism is national suicide, and political correctness is the cyanide capsule.)
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To: Todd Kinsey
There's real potential here for a candidate that doesn't lead with Social Issues.

Gingrich has been up and down the state a couple of times recently. Romney has been here.

Both Santorum and Paul have virtually ignored this state and it's 169 delegates.

169 delegates. 172 if you count the at-large.

I haven't seen any polling on CA yet, but what I hear in my little bubble:

1. Gingrich well liked and admired

2. Romney uninspiring, but will do in a pinch.

3. Paul - wingnut. 4. Santorum - wingnut.

43 posted on 03/04/2012 11:27:37 AM PST by Mariner (War Criminal #18)
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To: Bluestocking
If this year’s Republican presidential candidate chooses a charismatic Hispanic vice-presidential candidate such as Marco Rubio, it will not be business as usual in California.

Is Marco Rubio a natural born citizen?

44 posted on 03/04/2012 11:28:46 AM PST by Paleo Conservative
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To: Todd Kinsey

If you couldn’t defeat that idiot Boxer in 2010, I don’t see how you can defeat feinstein in 2012.


45 posted on 03/04/2012 11:38:55 AM PST by Old Retired Army Guy
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To: Todd Kinsey

My head is hurting. No California is not in play for the GOP. Wish it could be otherwise but it isn’t going to happen.


46 posted on 03/04/2012 11:39:32 AM PST by CAconservitive
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To: Todd Kinsey
Absurd. CA is far too pro-abortion and pro-homosexual to vote Republican. The Rats will easily win CA's electoral votes and Senate seat. Republican resources are much better spent elsewhere.

CA is now a one party state.

47 posted on 03/04/2012 12:04:14 PM PST by stillonaroll (Nominate a non-RINO in 2012!)
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To: Mariner
California's delegates are mostly chosen winner-take-all by Congressional district. It doesn't make a lot of sense to focus there now because if one guy is clearly winning by then, he'll mop up.

Romney will run statewide -- between moderates and Mormons, he has a huge advantage.

Ron Paul is going to be very focused on a dozen or so of the liberal-white-majority districts in the Bay Area and LA with very few Republicans, a disporportionate share of which are libertarian-leaning ... probably will lose most to Romeny but could pick up a few.

Gingrich, if he's still in, should be focused an a dozen or so more conservative districts away from the coasts, which are mostly white and relatively light in Mormons.

Santorum, if he's still in, is going to be working the same districts as Gingrich, maybe with a focus on the half-dozen or so districts with a meaningful number of Hispanic Republicans who might go for him on the Catholic identity vote.
48 posted on 03/04/2012 12:08:13 PM PST by only1percent
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To: Todd Kinsey

If nuclear weapons completely obliterated all human life in California, it would still reliably vote DemonCrap.


49 posted on 03/04/2012 12:09:09 PM PST by Lazamataz (If unemployment helps the economy, like the W.H. says, then CONTRACTING CANCER MAKES YOU HEALTHIER!)
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To: Todd Kinsey

CA looked “competitive” for a short while for Carly, but in the end she still lost by 9%. That state is not in play, and to commit resources to try to make inroads there is a waste. It`s gone..and it isn`t coming back.


50 posted on 03/04/2012 12:11:24 PM PST by ScottinVA (GOP, meet Courage... Courage, meet GOP.)
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