Skip to comments.Can Romney beat Obama?
Posted on 03/07/2012 6:40:54 PM PST by seeking enlightenment
With Romney squeaking out Ohio and a few other races before I have to question his electability. Ron Paul's supporters are going to support Paul no matter what but Santorum and Gingrich are splitting the vote. If Gingrich wasn't in the race then Romney loses the close races, there is not going to be anyone to split the the vote with Obama. Romney is also spending up to six times the money of the other candidates. Obama is talking about raising 1 billion dollars so Romney will probably be on the other side of the money battle and will his leads evaporate or will he be able to close the gap in the close races when he can't outspend Obama? I know that many people will vote for anyone but Obama but Romney doesn't seem to be able to inspire most of the Republicans and conservatives to vote for him so will he be able to pull in the undecided independents when the media turns the spotlight on him, he has yet to take a serious beating by the media yet and can he take it? If the race was a two man race and Santorum or possibly Gingrich had half his money I don't think he'd get the Republican nomination. So if Romney becomes the nominee and he no longer has his advantages and the pro Obama media comes into play, can he win?
Most Catholics are Democrat voters, glad to see that you are Republican.
Romney cleans up with Catholics, he dominates the Catholic vote, but he does poorly among the most conservative block of voters.
He can beat Obama. If he’s beating his Pubbie rivals with his milquetoast personality and mediocrity, he can beat Obama. Mediocrity rules, folks!
Actually a massive organization left over from 2008, and massive funds, and the full support of the GOP and the media, “rules, folks”.
Actually I think all three can beat Obama but your observation of where Romney gets his delegates from for the Republican Nomination is precisely correct. The following is the order that I think the best candidates for the Republican party success is:
Though I think Romney can beat Obama I think he will do this by the smallest margin.
I would ask this of Republican voters, vote for the man you want as the nominee and not the one the media says can win. Newt, Mitch and Santorum can all win.
Wow, you really are a little romneybot.
Bishop Romney does dominate Catholics, especially moderate females.
Did either of you read the SORDID history of Mitt Romney posted on this thread multiple times?
The man actively supported Gay Adoption and Gay Marriage!
Is this really the man you want as your standard bearer against Obama?
Are you for real?
Pull your head out of the sand and wake up!
If you have any principles at all, and any conservatism, you will not be supporting a total utter creep like Mitt Romney.
The man is absolute scum!
Hildy; Ballygrl, do you two Mormon Bishop, Romney supporters, have any social issues that you care about?
I know that and you know that and most of America knows that. We’ll leave those here to their delusions.
Easy come easy go. Don’t let the door hit you in the x on the way out.
Ok.. Here we go again.. It’s a broken record. Good night. I will leave you with this.. I do more for the Conservative cause in one day than you have done in all the years you have bitched and moaned on this website. You can only make changes when you understand the system... Just not liking the system isn’t good enough. But good luck with your delusions... Delusion is the blindfold you wear to your own execution.
Yes it is, but then again a lot of people are voting for Romney WTF is wrong with them?
Listening to the MSM. Allowing them to pick our opponent to Obama.
Your activism has been to weaken conservatives, to move the GOP to the left.
When Rudy Giuliani was the most hard left GOP candidate you supported him, when the more far left Romney entered, you switched to him.
Since Romney is the most liberal of this cycle then you kept with Romney as a carry over from 2008.
How are you helping the conservative cause?
This is march 7, 2012.
Here is a poll from March 10, 1980. Reagan should have dropped out.
ABC-Harris poll, March 10, 1980:
When pitted against President Carter among a cross section of 1,498 likely voters, Ford runs ahead by a 54-44 percent margin. By contrast , among the same voters , Reagan trails Carter by 58-40 percent .
I am assuming that a President Romney would seek a second term. If he leads as a liberal he will be challenged in the primary and that’s the LAST thing he will want(ask LBJ, Carter, and GHWB). He is smart. He is not going to tick off his base and pull a Harriet Miers like GWB did.
Regarding Newt climbing back: I take it you did not watch his speech on Tuesday night. What a disaster! He is a horrible campaigner-his speech was rambling and unfocused and he lacked excitement.His supporters were sitting on their hands waiting for him to get fired up, since it was a VICTORY speech, for crying out loud. And today I saw a piece on CNN showing him SLEEPING while waiting to be interviewed-—that should fire up the women’s vote! I think his time to run for the presidency has come and gone. He’s about 15 years too late. He’s McCain’s age and it’s beginning to show.
There are only two candidates running, Newt and Ron Paul. Romney is not a natural born citizen nor can he come within ten points of Obama. Santorum is not natural born either so where does that leave us?
Let me get this straight——Since you think Romney and Santorum are not natural born U.S. citizens please then tell me of what country are they citizens?
>> If Romney is the Candidate I will be forced to vote for him.
I’ll pragmatically tick off the Conservative/Life line. Ultimately, it’s a numbers game. Of course, there’s plenty of petitioning to do before then.
On cue they will blame Republicans and Conservatives. The propaganda ministers will fill their empty little heads with the belief that if the House Repubs would have just compromised with Obama, gas prices and joblessness wouldn`t be so high.
The sheeple will also be directed to believe the Repubs want to take away their free cell phones, government- subsidized apartment, food stamps, and medical care... and make them WORK and pay TAXES.
That and sitting through a tournament of lawn bowling.
Well, since a massive defeat seems assured, perhaps this is the year Conservatives field and promote a third-party option.
Based on polling data (latest polling data shows Romney being destroyed by Obama in Virginia and Ohio), the opportunity to make a real statement has arrived. Clearly, the “best” the GOP seems to be able put forth, in a country of 310 million people, is the likes of Romney?
Previously, I`d believed a third-party presence would destroy an already-slim chance of defeating Obama, but with the flame of that hope already flickered out with Mittens “leading” the charge, why not make that move now and put a real candidate on the national stage? To be sure, Obama will win big, but he`s will anyway with Romney as the GOP nominee.
The GOP, by its own actions, is going the way of the Whigs. How much longer must that dying horse be fed our $ when it no longer can even get itself up off the ground?
As we sing about such things.
Watch this video. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4KqM0xZQVpE
Sure, I care about the decline of morals in our society, I care about the continued decline in the black community, but I also acknowledge, that in tough economic times? Americans care more about keeping their jobs, cars, a roof over their head and food in the refrigerator.
Funny, I always say I was born a Republican, only voted for a Democrat on the local level, maybe twioe, in the 1980's I decided to self identify as a Conservative Republican. Are my credentials OK?
And if Romney gets the nomination, and Newt, Rick, Sarah, Michelle all endorse him, and you know they will, are you going to tell them to pull their heads out of the sand and wake-up? are you going to question their principles? their conservatism?
Romneybot? seriously? LOLOL! I was a Palinbot in 08, a Bachmanbot in 2011. If I have to be a bot I'll say I'm an "AnyoneButObamaBot". Are you going to call Palin, Gingrich, Santorum and Bachman "Romneybots" when they endorse him at the convention?
Romney is squeaking out these victories by running up the votes in urban areas and losing the rural and suburban areas. He’s not going to carry those urban areas against Obama. In fact, Obama will stomp him in the urban areas while the suburban and rural conservatives that he’s been treating like dirt will sit on their hands.
Romney’s loss will be of McGovern proportions.
Lucas, Your right, I was acting like an idiot. I’m sorry. In my zest to defend my candidate I assumed things that were not true about you. Please forgive me. I could not sleep last night because of the the harsh words and foolish things I said. This morning when I was reading what I read every morning, God had a thing or two to say to me about how I acted. I was out of line. I am really Sorry.
They are US citizens. they are not Natural Born Citizens. There is a difference between the two. Those seeking the office of president must be natural born citizens. That is, Born on US soil with both parents being US citizens before that birth.
Not good enough. We need to see seven (7) more paragraphs of apology.
Romney also left a number of judicial vacancies, which allowed Deval Patrick, an extreme liberal, the opportunity to fill them.
Hildy, With all due respect, many of us will not vote for Romney because we do not trust him. Besides the documentation we have of him saying he is pro-life and against gay marriage, and then doing the opposite at a later date. For instance, he said judges forced him to sign the gay marriage bill in his state, but see post 43, where he did NOT have to sign gay marriage, he chose to AFTER he say he was against gay marriage.
Hildy, It seems you have the same attitude that the Mormon religious group had in the Religious Leaders meeting in January. Erick Ericksonn of Redstate said the Mormon religious group were saying more or less, you conservatives WILL line up and vote for romney, like it or not.
He wrote this:> The Evangelical Vote
Posted by Erick Erickson (Diary)
Monday, January 16th at 4:46AM EST
The evangelical movement...... Since a few have decided to leak so many details from the meeting as background and anonymous sources, I want to clarify a few things from my perspective and I will do it decidedly on the record.
The Romney advocacy did more harm than good and I think the biggest story to come out of this event has to be both the hostility between evangelicals and Team Romney and the absolute endorsement for Not Romney.
If you are reading this from the media, I think the story you should tell is that Mitt Romney will probably become the nominee of the Republican Party with even less good feelings between evangelicals and him than John McCain had.
The problem for Team Romney is that the distrust of Romney is overwhelmingly about his record and shiftiness, but the Romney campaign fundamentally believes it is about his religion. When Team Romney concluded the pitch (read from an iPad seemingly without a passionate delivery) with an admonishment to not be an anti-Mormon bigot, it was game over.
Several of the attendees felt like the Romney campaign was almost implying that theyd win without evangelicals and would expect everyone to line up when it was over even without Romney reaching out.
Note to Team Romney: when you are in a room full of Christian leaders like those who were in that room and who have all long been attacked by the left as bigots, it is unwise no, it is damn foolish to accuse them of being anti-Mormon bigots, something too many Romney supporters have descended to as the only possible explanation for daring to not get on board with Romney.
Its interesting that the outreach concerns are so universal. Inside the conservative blogosphere, among social conservatives, and among specifically the evangelical community there is a great deal of concern that, unlike John McCain, once the Romney camp has it in the bag theyll go off to woo independents and leave smoldering or un-repaired bridges back to the base.
I don't like Romney, think Gingrich is a far better choice, and I think Santorum is a guaranteed loss for the Republicans up and down the ballot, yes even against Obama.
Romney while I do not like his policy or governance, can and would beat Obama. Why? Simple, he'll win the swing states, pure and simple.
You have to realize elections are rarely about the opposition candidate when it is a reelection year. They are effectively a vote of confidence about the guy currently in the White House, and if you are the same party as the guy in office and he's at the end of his 8 years, guess what, your election is largely going to boil down to did the public approve of your predecessor not you, far more than it is going to be about you.
That's reality folks... Stay the Course or make a change... I know you and I don't think that way, but that's how the majority of the electorate, or the swing voter boils it down.
Clinton was elected because George Bush lost his vote of Confidence, in a 3 way race, And Clinton won a reelection because he won a vote of confidence in a 3 way race, now had those races been 2-way the outcomes would have been different, but they weren't. McCain lost and Obama won in 08 because the electorate lost confidence in BUSH, they weren't voting for Obama as much as they were voting against Bush, even though Bush wasn't on the Ballot.
This year, the electorate by any polling done absolutely by and large wants Obama gone. All the Republicans have to do to win the election is not put up someone that the typical voter is not going to view as too extreme, dangerous or radical. Doesn't matter who it is, whoever that is, they will beat Obama.
Now, in the Republican race, Romney clearly fits that Bill. Santorum? Not so much, he is easily painted as extremists with his own stupid sound bites, happened in 06 and will happen in 12 if he is the nominee.
Gingrich while he has his negatives, its harder to paint him the extremist because unlike Santorum, he can defend his stands articulately and has the intellect to turn the tables and call those attacking him by proxy in the press for their actions and do so with authority and believability.
Romney while I don't like his policies or stands, can and would win a general election, he'll simply play the safe, steady candidate as a reasonable alternative to the current screw up and win. Won't be exciting, won't be what conservatives are going to want, but he's safe and will win.
Gingrich, he'll take the fight right to Obama and make the decision not just, is this guy safe to put there, he'll actually make it a true ideological election, and I think he'd do it very very well, and in spite of the negatives in his personal background I believe he'll win over a very large majority and lead to a very large repudiation of the Obama administration and the liberal politics they believe in. End of the day I think he'd win by the larges margin of any republican if he is the nominee. Some social conservatives may not like his background of divorces etc, but he will excite the fiscal small government conservative base in a way we haven't seen since 1984.
Santorum, well sadly, I see no path to victory with him. He excites social conservatives with his stands, but unfortunately his articulation and defense of those stands usually provides fresh fodder for the left to paint him as a radical extremist, thus making him unacceptable as a replacement, even of the screw up in chief. This is exactly what they did in PA in 06, and it will be exactly the same in 12. He'll certainly fire up the social conservative base, but his constant verbal gaffes doing so will alienate just as excitedly swing voters who otherwise might consider him. He's not going to fire up the small government, fiscal conservatives, because frankly he's not one. He's a big government compassionate conservative. That part of the base won't abandon him over it, but they aren't going to be fired up about it.
Put simply, Romney will be accepted by the swing voters, Gingrich, will win over the swing voters, Santorum will be rejected by too many of them as extreme.
That's my calculus. Don't get me wrong, I'll vote for the candidate regardless of who it is, because they are all better than Obama, but I am not one of the swing voters who needs to break to the Republican side to eject Fauxbama.
As to a brokered convention, and those arguing that route, I only remind you that in modern politics only 4 times has a brokered convention happened, and in EVERY ONE OF THEM, the party that had the brokered convention lost, and usually lost big. Trying to condense a Presidential Campaign down into 60-75 days is a nearly impossible task if you wish to win.
Kenyan isn’t even going to Congress, EPA for example
I pretty much agree with everything you’ve written. The only small point I’d quibble with is why Obama won. There was no way Obama was going to Lose that election. I do not think it was again BIsh. But those voters, the voters who had never come out before will not come out again for Obama.
I like Gingrich as well. But it is not his destiny apparently.
No, I don’t like Mitt. In fact, I like him less now than ever. However, I do respond to such statements that the establishment has permitted Mitt to win. Blame the individual and vapid voters instead.
It depends. I don’t think McPain would have beaten the Kenyan Marxist if some conservatives that hated him hadn’t stayed home and pouted. So we didn’t get McPain and instead we got a Kenyan, Muslim Marxist and his trashy wife who think they won the lotto.
It also depends on if the Republicans act like a bunch of cowards.... again.. or if they go after Barry Soetoro. Romney said he won’t so I expect he will basically campaign for Barry, just like McPain did:
This isn't a game for me or many other Americans either. We have genuine concerns about the direction this Country is going, our Countries only chance is to win majorities in the House and Senate, we need the White House too. I don't want to see another Kagan or Sotomayor appointed to the Supreme Court. You and all the other Romney haters here can whine and scream because your candidate isn't winning the vote, that doesn't change a darn thing. You're free to sit home and not vote, but if Obama wins a 2nd term and all of a sudden we're faced with Obamacare going into effect, 1st and 2nd Amendment rights are suddenly at stake because of a left leaning Supreme Court, blanket amnesty goes into effect, even more Americans are on food stamps and welfare programs, just keep your whining to yourself because you contributed to the downfall!
....but Romney has said that Obamacare could be enacted on the state level. I live in a far left state, which has already laid the foundations to do just that if Obamacare fails in the courts. I don’t want any part of Obamacare.
I heard Mitt Romney on tv, after the Romneycare was passed in Mass, say that someday he hoped to bring a version of Romneycare to the whole country.
I said to myself, “not if I can help it.”
Your thesis is incorrect. I don’t know what else to say to you.
It won’t happen if we vote enough conservatives into the House and Senate. The 1 area I can give Romney some slack is his Governorship, I see the same thing happening here with Christie, he’s not 100% conservative, but you know what? for the 1st time ever my property taxes went down, more and more jobs are coming back to my State. Do I agree with Christie all the time? no, but he’s done enough good things that in some areas I can cut him some slack.
...but Romney isn’t even promising the right things. Romney hedges on Obamacare, all the time.
I’m not even going to be surprised if Obama doesn’t pull back on Obamacare before the election and call for it to be enacted on the state level, just like in Mass., leaving Romney stammering and stuttering.
WA State has already passed many of the state requirements in preparation for Obamacare. It would only take a small step to enact it on the state level.
There is no compromising on FREEDOM. I don’t want just some of my freedom back. I want it all.
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