Posted on 03/08/2012 11:55:48 AM PST by libertarian neocon
I’m not.
I’ve had my say and Newt took Georgia, but Romney will still win the Primary overall.
I’m resigned.
“I’m not.
I’ve had my say and Newt took Georgia, but Romney will still win the Primary overall.
I’m resigned.”
I feel your pain though I am a bit jealous. I’m in NJ and my primary isn’t until June 5. And there is no chance of him winning here.
Good analysis. Thanks for posting.
Still trying to figure out how we got here...Romney? His "Romneycare" will sink us faster than an Italian Cruise ship...It's just pitiful.
Not necessarily. If Ron Paul and Newt would step aside....a conservative may have half a chance to disrupt Romney’s march.
Why do it now?
“Still trying to figure out how we got here...Romney? His “Romneycare” will sink us faster than an Italian Cruise ship...It’s just pitiful.”
Lol on the Italian cruise ship. I think we got here because of HW Bush effectively taking over the party after Reagan left. If only Ron had chosen Jack Kemp for VP, things could have been different.
Yeah, but for the same reason the GOP would rally strongly behind him.
Also, Mitch is a social conservative despite how twisted the "social truce" remark became in the media.
“There is plenty of time to give up and assume the fetal position.
Why do it now?”
Just because Super Tuesday was our last best hope of defeating Romney. You could certainly have seen a scenario where he would only have won VT and MA and that would have been majorly embarressing for him and would have cost him quite a few delegates. Instead he won six states and the math just looks exceedingly difficult for anyone other than him. And Im not assuming the fetal position. Ill still trash him every chance I get. I hate liberals. Of both parties.
You overlook one other scenario. That is Rick/Newt combined get more delegates than Romney. In that scenario, the one behind, currently Newt, would throw his support behind Rick (or vice versa). Now when it comes to the 2nd ballot, why would it have to be Mitt? There would be a very good argument to say that Mitt is toast. He outspent his rivals and couldn’t close the deal. And if he couldn’t close the deal with his money advantage in the primary, he won’t stand a chance against Obama where he won’t have the same advantages. Now that is just pointing out the obvious weakness in Romney. And considering how much the guy at the top of the ticket affects races nationwide, why wouldn’t the establishment want to dump Mittens? And on top of that, you will have the Conservative wing screaming as loud as they can that it must not be Mitt. All in all unless Mitt gets over 50% of the delegates I don’t see any good reason he should be the nominee. He is doing rather poorly considering he saturates the airwaves against his rivals while they can’t fight back.
In this sense, Rick seems like a much stronger candidate. “Hey guys look at me. I almost won a bunch of states spending 1/6 the money Mitt did.” Or Newt, depending who comes out on top.
Of course the last 4 brokered conventions the republicans had, they lost the general election. Luckily, this time around the incumbent is weak.
If it were only possible for Newt and Santorum to selectively drop out - get their name OFF the ballot - in different not-yet-run states, garnering their resources where each had the best chances, enabling wins for one or the other in those states and then jointly holding the edge at the convention.
“You overlook one other scenario. That is Rick/Newt combined get more delegates than Romney. “
You are right, if they join forces it does become easier. They probably still wouldn’t get the nomination outright (they still need 80% of the hard bound delegates from here on out to do that) but they only need to outperform Romney by about 11 points to at least have a lead over him.
Even then though it will be an uphill challenge for the simple reason that the brokers dont play nice and never like the conservative candidate. In 1952, the brokers actually stole delegates from Taft to give to RINO Ike (he was literally a RINO as he wasnt sure which party to even join not that long before 1952). In 1976, the MS delegation betrayed Reagan despite the fact that it was Reagan country. In 1980, the brokers were pushing for a Reagan-Ford co-Presidency, which would have been a disaster.
Personally, I’m of the opinion that delegates should be weighted.
For instance, who cares how the delegates from California, New York, or Massachusetts vote? The ‘Pubbies are NOT going to get those states or their electors.
Same is true for Georgia, Texas, and Mississippi - they’re going Republican, no matter what. Even the GOP will have a hard time blowing their advantage there.
But the swing states like Ohio, which are still in play and where the election will really be decided, their delegates should have the most weight.
Being a conservative and from Georgia, I hate that idea, but even Romney is better than Obama (I hope...).
Perhaps it would be wiser at this point to focus on pressuring Romney to pick a conservative VP as heir-apparent. Otherwise, it’s Jeb in 2016 with no serious opposition.
Well, shoot, let’s just give up then and quit trying and accept Mr. Inevitability, A.K.A, Mr. Progressive Liberal, A.K.A., Mr. Lie my butt off as our candidate.
“Well, shoot, let’s just give up then and quit trying and accept Mr. Inevitability, A.K.A, Mr. Progressive Liberal, A.K.A., Mr. Lie my butt off as our candidate.”
Honestly, he will NEVER be my candidate. I’m done accepting whatever garbage Democrat-lite that the establishment tries to shove down my throat. He is to the left of Dole, Bush and McCain, and there is no way I will vote for him.
“Perhaps it would be wiser at this point to focus on pressuring Romney to pick a conservative VP as heir-apparent. Otherwise, it’s Jeb in 2016 with no serious opposition.”
Well if it’s a brokered convention he probably will end up picking Santorum in order to unite everyone.
Not gonna happen, unfortunately.
Rick's not gonna drop out. Why should he? He's out-polling Newt pretty much everywhere.
Newt's not gonna drop out. He doesn't seem the type to want to take the backseat to anyone.
So they'll both continue splitting the conservative vote. At close of businessTuesday, March 13, Romney will have a much bigger portion of the 90 Mississippi/Alabama delegates in his column than he would have had facing a single conservative, and the delegate math will make it even more unlikely that Romney will be stopped.
There is little doubt that democrats are fueling Rick especially in places like Michigan and Ohio. It was a fact if you look at their blogs. The democrats really relish either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum. They fear Newt Gingrich. Is fairly plain for anyone who has followed politics for half a century like I have. The democrats have been setting up Romney for over a year. In the last couple of months they have pivoted to Rick Santorum to hedge their bets. Either one and it is a easy walk for Obama. Newt would kick butt, and they know it.
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