Posted on 03/10/2012 10:30:24 AM PST by parksstp
If you have crunched the numbers like I have, it’s very hard to see how Romney is denied the 1,144 delegates in a 3 man race. This is because in a 2-man race in the Southern states, Romney would be shut out of most delegates, whereas now with the Anti-Romney vote split, he is taking 1/3 or better of the delegates. This will in fact get him to 1,144 based on even the most pessimistic scenarios.
Consider the following: Romney has acquired about 407 delegates in the following states (Endorsed Superdelegates are included in the totals)
IA (7), NH(7), SC(2), FL(50), NV(14), MN(6), CO(12), ME(10), AZ(29), MI(16), WA(16), VT(9), VA(43), MA(40), OK(13), AK(8), ID(32), ND(7), GA(21), OH(38), TN(16), WY(11)
It is projected, that Romney will win AT LEAST 492 Delegates in the following states that are considered FAVORABLE to Romney, giving him a total of 899 delegates: UT(40), DC(17), RI(15), NJ(50), PR(22), VI(9), GU(9), NMI(9), AS(9), MD(31), DE(17), CT(25), HI(9), CA(112), NY(74) IL(44)
That leaves him 245 delegates short (and I’m being very generous to the Anti-Romney picking up some CD’s in CA and NY).
However, look at the polls in MS and AL. Under proportional allocation, Romney is pretty certain to pick up at least a 1/3 of the delegates. In a two-man race behind a single Anti-Romney who could get over 50%, Romney would be denied most delegates. But in a three-way race with the vote split, it will allow him to pick-up more delegates in states he normally wouldn’t be competitive.
Watch this play out in the following states. Assume the vote is split and Romney getting his usual 20-25% margin will be able to pick up at least a 1/3 of the delegates in the following states:
AR(10), MO(17), WV(9), AL(16), IN(14), MS(13), MT(12), KY(15), NC(20), LA(13), KS(12), NE(10), SD(11), WI(14), TX(38), PA (28), OR(9), NM(8).
That’s 269 delegates, and puts Romney at 1,168, 24 more than required to clinch the nomination. And with the Anti-Romney’s split, it’s most likely Romney will take more than the 112 delegates in CA and 74 in NY that I allocated to him.
If 1 Anti-Romney was in the race, they would be able to claim over 80% or around 220 delegates Romney would get in a 3-way race, keeping Romney under 1,000 delegates.
Do the math. Show me where I miscalculated. AL and MS are keys to what is going to happen in a 3 man race. Romney doesn’t have to win them, he just needs to get his 20-25% and delegate allocation will reward him with 1/3 of the state delegates. This will go on in just about every other favorable Anti-Romney state.
If the Anti-Romney’s don’t combine, Romney wins the nomination. It’s that simple. The delegate math proves it.
Welcome to 4 more years then.
How comfortable are you assuming that all the Gingrich support would shift to Santorum, or all the Santorum support to Gingrich. I think Gingrich and Santorum may be further apart politically than either one is from Romney.
1/2 of that question is being answered in MS. Santorum is dropping, but Gingrich is gaining by a similar margin.
Polls have shown the bulk of Gingrich’s support going to Santorum, mostly out of sheer hatred of Romney. Santorum’s supporters though aren’t really fond of either and seem to be splitting in favor of Romney, if only, because they are tired of fighting what many see as the inevitable.
Great! Guess we don’t need to bother voting then!
i’m sorry meant “isn’t gaining by a similar margin”.
Well then Santorum needs to drop out and stop splitting the vote.
Sure, I’ll advocate for that when Newt can prove he can win in a state that I-20 doesn’t travel through,
Shock poll from Rasmussen...Romney 48%, Obama 43%
“mostly out of sheer hatred of Romney”
There is no “hate” in republican voters. The democrats are the hateful bunch.
so with a third of the GOP vote he wins? then gop turn out in the general will suck. OBAMA wins.
Over60%of our party see the interloper as a liar,a liberal, and unfit to represent conservatives. He is a Massachusetts liberal who has run a filthy and dirty campaign and is despised on this website and frankly everyone I know. Either Santorum or Gingrich is better by far. Today in Kansas could be huge for Santorum . As long as delegates are not going to this checkerd pants, “2 Cadillac”,Country Club insider . WE WIN!! We want total chaos at the convention !!! Then we can take our party back for these establishment elites!!
Which primaries are winner-take-all?
That would negate even a strong #2 for any of the candidates.
It’s just so obvious now. Gingrich had some kind of deal with Romney. I suspected this when he stopped winning the debates.
You’re assuming that all the supporters of Newt or Santorum would go to the other, just as an Anyone But Romney vote. I don’t see that happening. Lots of Newt supports think he would be best against Obama, with Romney second. Lots of Santorum supporters don’t like Newt’s family values. It’s not as clear cut as you think it is.
Same poll has Santorum beating Obama by 1% - 46% to 45%
Have yet to find a poll where Gingrich beats Obama.
Newt ‘the visionary’ whose one note campaign lately is lowering gas prices should give it a rest. Newt just can’t find traction. He is flailing. Newt cannot win trying to be a populist and promising free moon pies with $2.50 gas.
Vote for Freedom and Liberty. Vote Santorum.
“Sure, I’ll advocate for that when Newt can prove he can win in a state that I-20 doesn’t travel through,”
Does that mean northerners support Romney over Gingrich?
I have been on this site for years as a pro-life, pro-family republican. I’m tired of the GOP “fixing” elections for who “they” think we should vote. The cheating and lying by the romney campaign, with the assistance of the gop, the media on the right, and unnamed powerful people, has shown me they are corrupt too, as is the democrats.
IF romney wins, I am hoping for a third party candidate. I would never have considered that before, but because of the tatics used to force romney on us, we better start considering who we will end up with in 2016. I have no doubt that romney will lose against obama. Any third grader could show the hypocrisy of who he really is. If we do as we are “told” and vote for their man; just when will we ever have a choice in who we want? They are stealing our vote, no different than when people vote for the dead. If we give them what they want they will know there schemes have worked and will continue to use them until we stop it. They did it with Mccain so it is a pattern.
The GOP have taken our right to vote and corrupted it. Why should I stay with a party who uses me? I won’t if romney wins.
Or vice versa. I'm not sure why the #2 candidate should drop out to make way for the #3 candidate. And of course there's Ron Paul, who appears to be working for Romney, and certainly will never drop out.
It's a mess. Just like the last time.
Things that come to my mind that don’t seem to be considered here...
Newts said last night on Hannity that Arizona and Florida delegates will be challenged.
Unbound delegates, who are not bound by law, can switch who they vote for.
Santorum is not on the DC ballot.
Santorum has not filled out full delegate slates throughout the US.
There is about 8 winner take all states.
Florida should be proportional according to the rules after the state was penalized.
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