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Mitt Romney and why the Virginia-Colorado scenario means his defeat
July 14, 2012 | techno

Posted on 07/14/2012 7:13:11 PM PDT by techno

Search around the internet and among most pundits you will find this conclusion:

Among sure blue states and blue states that lean blue President Obama now commands 247 electoral votes (EV) adjusted for the 2010 census.

These states include:

Hawaii (4)

Washington state (12)

Oregon (7)

California (55)

New Mexico (5)

Minnesota (10)

Wisconsin (10)

Michigan (16)

Illinois (20)

Pennsylvania (20)

New York State (29)

Delaware (3)

Maryland (10)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

DC (3)

Now Mitt Romney commands 180 EV adjusted for the 2010 census:

Alaska (3)

Idaho (4)

Montana (3)

Wyoming (3)

Utah (6)

Arizona (11)

Texas (38)

Oklahoma (7)

Kansas (6)

Nebraska (5)

South Dakota (3)

North Dakota (3)

Missouri (10)

Arkansas (6)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Alabama (9)

Georgia (16)

South Carolina (9)

West Virginia (5)

Kentucky (8)

Tennessee (11)

Now that accounts for 427 EV which leaves 111 EV outstanding.

Now here is how they break down:

a) 5 largest battleground states

Indiana (11)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

North Carolina (15)

Florida (29)

Total 86 EV

And finally 4 smaller swing states:

Colorado (9)

Nevada (6)

Iowa (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Total 25 EV

Now here is how a lot of pundits see the 2012 election. Bottom line--Romney needs to win 4 of the 5 largest battleground states: Indiana appears to be in the bag, but he needs to win Florida for sure and 2 of 3 of Ohio, VA, and NC at a bare minimum to have any chance of becoming the president.

For example with the Goode candidacy putting Virginia in doubt for Romney if Romney were to win Indiana, Ohio, NC and Florida that would increase his total by 73 EV to 253 EV. He would therefore need 17 EV to eke out a bare victory.

Now why I call it the Virgina-Colorado scenario is if Romney loses Virginia he is then forced to win Colorado with its 9 EV and and 2 out of 3 of Iowa, Nevada and NH. In other words if Romney loses both Virginia and Colorado, Obama will be re-elected.

So this begs two questions:

a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?

b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?

Imho, he needs to put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket who has the ability to "steal" Goode's conservative support away from him. Otherwise he has to pray Goode doesn't get the 10,000 required signatures to get on the ballot or Goode dies of a heart attack.

As for Colorado, he needs to put on the ticket a westerner with either libertarian or Hispanic ties at a minimum or a rock-ribbed conservative to win over evangelical voters in Colorado. A cushy safe moderate won't cut it in CO or VA.

And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012swingstates; conservatives; obama; palin; romney; va2012
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1 posted on 07/14/2012 7:13:19 PM PDT by techno
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To: techno

LOL- didn’t you last attempt with this garbage 15 minutes ago get put in the recycle bin by the moderators???

as far as your pie in the sky dream about Goode costing Romney the state of Virginia- did you bother to look at the PPP polls you contrived this garbage from last time before it was sent to the crapper??? did you notice the poll had a +12 rat tilt in the data???


2 posted on 07/14/2012 7:18:59 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: techno

The polls have them tied by heavily oversampling democrappers. We need conservatives in the House and Senate to whak romney in the head not to do stoooopid things.


3 posted on 07/14/2012 7:25:30 PM PDT by MtnClimber (To the left wrong is right, down is up and backward is "Forward")
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To: techno

0 wins 2 states and DC.


4 posted on 07/14/2012 7:26:22 PM PDT by Cyber Ninja
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To: techno
Your analysis may be good, but on the Obama states I wouldn't necessarily bet my life on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
5 posted on 07/14/2012 7:27:54 PM PDT by stormhill
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To: techno
The voters from California and New York are doing to this country what they've accomplished in their own states: complete economic melt-down. Almost 100 electoral votes in the bag for every dem. Obama doesn't even need to campaign in those states...just show up once in awhile for a bag full of money.
6 posted on 07/14/2012 7:31:40 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: techno
a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?

Be someone other than Mitt Romney.

b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?

See above.
7 posted on 07/14/2012 7:32:32 PM PDT by arderkrag (ABOs are Romneybot trolls. LOOKING FOR ROLEPLAYERS. Check Profile.)
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To: God luvs America
Your tag line is the purest of class envy and hatred. Why should we believe anything you say?

If the federal personal income tax is causing you problems get rid of it. The thing was intended to tap only the top 1% or 2% anyway. The fact it taps the top 53% is a crime.

Get with the picture. None of us approve of higher taxes on anybody ~ except you guys with your personal income tax garbage.

8 posted on 07/14/2012 7:33:32 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: Huskrrrr

Are you sure about that? I was in Berkeley (California) today and counted a total of about THREE BO/Biden bumper stickers.


9 posted on 07/14/2012 7:33:51 PM PDT by thecodont
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To: techno

My count is:

Romney 206 EV

Obama 201 EV

with Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, Utah and Iowa up for grabs. The idea that Obama has 247 EVs lock up is silly almost as silly as the idea that North Carolina is a swing state.


10 posted on 07/14/2012 7:34:00 PM PDT by JLS (How to turn a recession into a depression: elect a Dem president with a big majorities in Congress))
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To: Huskrrrr

Correction: California + New York = 84 votes.


11 posted on 07/14/2012 7:34:30 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: thecodont

Hope you’re right.


12 posted on 07/14/2012 7:36:13 PM PDT by Huskrrrr
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To: techno

To your way of thinking, heck why even bother HAVING an election, let’s just give Obama the election now.

Getting sick of this stuff real fast.


13 posted on 07/14/2012 7:36:26 PM PDT by Shadowstrike (Be polite, Be professional, but have a plan to kill everyone you meet.)
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To: techno

Obama is now losing “Wisconsin (10)”

http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/13/rasmussen-romney-up-in-wisconsin-4744/

And Obama is behind in Iowa.


14 posted on 07/14/2012 7:39:59 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: arderkrag
Be someone other than Mitt Romney

Hes already doing that every other day

15 posted on 07/14/2012 7:44:04 PM PDT by tsowellfan (http://www.cafenetamerica.com/)
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To: JLS

Rasmussen has already given Michigan and Pennsylvania to Obama.

As for Utah, Romney has their 6 EV in the bag.

In the RCP average of polls they have Wisconsin at:

Obama 48.4%

Romney 44.0%

I’m not going to totally disagree with you on Wisconsin but I think putting Paul Ryan on the ticket might give me a little more confidence that Romney could pull it off.

I see Obama winning Wisconsin by about 3-4 points. But a win is a win.


16 posted on 07/14/2012 7:44:55 PM PDT by techno
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To: muawiyah

LOL- class envy and hatred??? funny thing; besides your delusional rhetoric which is commonly found on sites such as democratic underground, you’ve done nothing to prove my tagline is anything but true...

you keep pining for virgil goode- i’ll keep laughing at you....


17 posted on 07/14/2012 7:47:01 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: techno

The latest NY Times map shows you to be incorrect.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2012/electoral-map


18 posted on 07/14/2012 7:48:15 PM PDT by TheRhinelander
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To: techno

Forget Goode. Looming defense cuts and no support from Kaine will doom Obama in VA.


19 posted on 07/14/2012 7:49:21 PM PDT by Thrownatbirth (.....Iraq Invasion fan since '91.)
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To: techno
Good evening.

Just a reality check. Jimmah Carter was up by over 12 points at the end of September in 1980. We all know how that turned out.

5.56mm

20 posted on 07/14/2012 7:52:16 PM PDT by M Kehoe
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To: techno

So you have advanced training in statistic and can calculate the correct standard error for polls of different samples from different populations and know how to correct the sloppy work of RCP into something meaningful?

As for Rsmussen giving anyone any state, the don’t and the can’t. That is decided on election day.


21 posted on 07/14/2012 7:53:50 PM PDT by JLS (How to turn a recession into a depression: elect a Dem president with a big majorities in Congress))
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To: techno

Romney is going to win Wisconsin.


22 posted on 07/14/2012 7:54:02 PM PDT by Hildy (F"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - Socrates)
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To: techno

Obama 182
Romney 356

Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma.....Palin should have run.


23 posted on 07/14/2012 7:57:43 PM PDT by Benjamin Dover (This tagline space for rent)
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To: stormhill

Regardless of what the pundits or polls say -

Romney needs to run like he REALLY wants to win. HE needs to not keep the kid gloves on as McLame did in 2008.

He needs to pick a solid Conservative for the VP slot, and he needs to run like he is 5 pts. behind... and he needs to keep running all the way until inauguration. IF he doesn’t, then the Rats could still take (steal) this election.

After all, The only break in campaigning Obummer has done in the last 4 years are his frequent golf outings (and I guarantee most of those had plenty of campaigning going on...)


24 posted on 07/14/2012 8:00:08 PM PDT by TheBattman (Isn't the lesser evil... still evil?)
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To: Shadowstrike

Thank you! What if? Oh...the polls...yes....Personally with articles like this....I think these are Obama operatives....attempting to spread dis-information...


25 posted on 07/14/2012 8:00:47 PM PDT by Fully Awake DAV (Navy Vet when homosexuality was not tolerated)
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To: techno

Romney should just go for broke and ask Sarah Palin to come aboard, or order one of his aides to “leak” a secret message of that intention to see what the polls do.

Obviously Condi Rice doesn’t have the activism Sarah Palin could generate.

Sure asking Sarah Palin to be the VP nominee is like adding rocket fuel to a lumbering diesel truck, but as long as the wheels stay on it will be one heck of a ride.


26 posted on 07/14/2012 8:02:03 PM PDT by Eye of Unk (Going mobile, posts will be brief. No spellcheck for the grammar nazis.)
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To: techno

How many of those states Obama “commands” is he over 50 percent? If he isn’t there now, he probably will lose.


27 posted on 07/14/2012 8:06:30 PM PDT by Hugin ("Most times a man'll tell you his bad intentions, if you listen and let yourself hear."---Open Range)
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To: techno

What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?
______________________________________________________________

One of two things:

1. Use some of those millions in the campaign coffers to dig up all the dirt on Virgil Goode that they can, and find something really sinister in his, or a close family member’s, past. If they can’t find anything, pay someone to propagate a detestable lie on Mr. Goode, and recant after the Election by saying: “Oh, I’m sorry; I had him confused with Virgil Googenheimer whom I haven’t seen since 1987.

OR

2. The Weekend before the Election, pay a large sum of money to have someone release, to “World Net Daily” and “The Drudge Report”, a digitally manipulated picture of Virgil Goode having sex with a dog. That would turn-off the otherwise Romney supporters sending them back into the GOP Column, and it would so excite 50% of the Obama voters they’d switch over and vote for Mr. Goode, for sure.

Hey, with a lot of money, in the internet age, they can do just about anything. And, there is no politician above committing an act that most would consider some odious; shall we say?


28 posted on 07/14/2012 8:09:31 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: JLS

“Utah ... up for grabs”

This is a joke..... right?


29 posted on 07/14/2012 8:14:07 PM PDT by Road Glide
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To: techno

For starters: You can move New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and “possibly” Pennsylvania to the GOP Column. Piss on the pundits. After that, how is it looking for Obama? He’s trailing Romney now 231-196


30 posted on 07/14/2012 8:15:30 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: techno

Your theory that putting “rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket” will help him win Colorado is a joke, right?

Oh well, it’s cheap entertainment.


31 posted on 07/14/2012 8:17:40 PM PDT by bigbob
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To: bigbob

Or should Romney put on the ticket a gay moderate who is for gun control?


32 posted on 07/14/2012 8:22:27 PM PDT by techno
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To: Road Glide

Not joke, a mistake. I meant Nevada not Utah.


33 posted on 07/14/2012 8:23:45 PM PDT by JLS
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To: Hildy

May the Lord grant us favor


34 posted on 07/14/2012 8:29:44 PM PDT by Lily4Jesus ( Jesus is LORD)
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To: techno

Good analyses. He was a poor selection because he was a Rockefeller liberal-socialist and the rest in the field were actually conservatives. Now he wants baby killer Rice as VP!! You can’t make this up. Our only hope is mutiny at the convention.


35 posted on 07/14/2012 8:29:59 PM PDT by marygonzo
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To: Benjamin Dover

I’m voting for Mickey Mouse!


36 posted on 07/14/2012 8:32:00 PM PDT by Lily4Jesus ( Jesus is LORD)
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To: techno

OBama could, once AGAIN, collect the Electoral Vote from Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District. Last time Nebraska split it’s Electoral Vote... 4 McCain & 1 Obama.


37 posted on 07/14/2012 8:34:48 PM PDT by PizzaDriver ( on)
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To: techno

Yeah, we get it. You are pimping for your boy Obama to win.


38 posted on 07/14/2012 8:35:14 PM PDT by MissouriConservative (Voting Anyone but Obama in 2012.)
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To: M Kehoe
Just a reality check. Jimmah Carter was up by over 12 points at the end of September in 1980. We all know how that turned out.

Agreed. Still, that was my second vote and I was enthusiastic about RR. I voted for Carter in my first because I was stupid. I can't get excited about Myth. Watch yer knot!

39 posted on 07/14/2012 8:44:50 PM PDT by MileHi ( "It's coming down to patriots vs the politicians." - ovrtaxt)
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To: techno; pistolpackinpapa
a digitally manipulated picture of Virgil Goode having sex with a dog.

Techno, after reviewing your flawed logic in this thread of yours, may I advise you to review post #28 and consider trying tiddly winks while performing hop scotch on your front lawn. Obama is going to lose in a landslide!

40 posted on 07/14/2012 8:46:21 PM PDT by Mr Apple ( The first priority is get socialist thug obama out of the White House!)
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To: marygonzo
Now he wants baby killer Rice as VP!!

Marygonzo, welcome to fr; and btw, you might also want to try tiddly winks while performing hop scotch.

41 posted on 07/14/2012 8:50:31 PM PDT by Mr Apple ( The first priority is get socialist thug obama out of the White House!)
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To: techno

I have reflected on the Virginia-Colorado scenario and I stand by what I wrote.

However I think I know what Mitt Romney intends to do:

1) Abandon Virginia and go all in in Wisconsin and its 10 EV. Put Paul Ryan on the ticket who will also help out in Indiana and Ohio. Nate Silver already has given Romney a good chance of winning NC and with the Bushes and Rick Scott in Florida he will feel he should win there as well.

Add all that up you have 83 EV which you can add to the original 180 EV to take Romney to 263 EV.

2)Romney therefore is not forced to win Colorado to become President. He only then needs to win 2 of these 3 states (Nevada, Iowa, NH).

In other words here is a way for Romney to avoid the Virginia-Colorado scenario and for him to have a reasonable shot at being President.

But in this scenario it all comes down to Wisconsin. But if I were in Romney’s shoes I would rather it comes down Wisconsin a less conservative state than Virginia a very conservative state especially in Southern Virginia.


42 posted on 07/14/2012 8:57:47 PM PDT by techno
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To: techno
For starters: You can move New Mexico (5), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16) to the GOP Column. Piss on the pundits. After that, how is it looking for Obama? He's now only leading Romney now 216 - 211.

You can also add to Romney's Column, four of the five Battleground States of FL (29) NC (15), VA (13) and IN (11) now, Romney is at 279; enough to win the 270 EVs. AND Don't be surprised if NH and IA go for Romney, raising his total to 289 EVs. This is doable my FReeper Friends

AND..... Did you notice, I never put Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Colorado in Romney's column; and he still wins? He can win with the solid Red States and FL, VA, NC, MI, WI, IN and NM. And then ice the cake with NH and IA for a total of 289 EVs for Romney

I'm telling you FReepers, this is doable. Romney can win this thing, even if you concede VA to Obama, Romney could still, easily, end up with 276 EVs,
43 posted on 07/14/2012 9:02:04 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: stormhill

on the Obama states I wouldn’t necessarily bet my life on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Or Michigan


44 posted on 07/14/2012 9:04:04 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

Your post #43 is right on mark!


45 posted on 07/14/2012 9:04:31 PM PDT by Mr Apple ( The first priority is get socialist thug obama out of the White House!)
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To: JLS
Re: Your Post #10:

ARE YOU SERIOUS???? You're counting Utah as "up for grabs"? They vote GOP overwhelmingly even when the candidate is not a Mormon.
46 posted on 07/14/2012 9:10:28 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: Benjamin Dover

“Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma....”

A terrible underestimation, my FRiend.

Unless a miracle happens in August, we’re stuck with Romney and we’d better PRAY he wins.

I’m so curious - how many here have any plans on what to do if BHO gets re-elected? Seriously. ‘Cause our America is toast if that happens, and don’t count on a Republican or Conservative House and Senate to stop him in whatever he tries to do.


47 posted on 07/14/2012 9:13:59 PM PDT by llandres (Forget the "New America" - restore the original one!!!)
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To: pistolpackinpapa

See my post 33.


48 posted on 07/14/2012 9:24:54 PM PDT by JLS
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To: techno

Or should Romney put on the ticket a gay moderate who is for gun control?
___________________________________________________________________________________

Yes; a Black, Lesbian moderate with an Hispanic surname who is of the Jewish faith and is pro-gun control but anti-amnesty. Now, that’s the ticket.


49 posted on 07/14/2012 9:25:51 PM PDT by pistolpackinpapa (Why is it that you never see any Obama bumper stickers on cars going to work in the mornings?)
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To: llandres

Get out and work your ass off to get Romney elected. Work like your life depends on it. Because it does.


50 posted on 07/14/2012 10:12:17 PM PDT by Hildy (F"When the debate is lost, slander becomes the tool of the loser." - Socrates)
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