Mitt Romney and why the Virginia-Colorado scenario means his defeat

July 14, 2012 | techno

[techno]

Search around the internet and among most pundits you will find this conclusion:

Among sure blue states and blue states that lean blue President Obama now commands 247 electoral votes (EV) adjusted for the 2010 census.

These states include:

Hawaii (4)

Washington state (12)

Oregon (7)

California (55)

New Mexico (5)

Minnesota (10)

Wisconsin (10)

Michigan (16)

Illinois (20)

Pennsylvania (20)

New York State (29)

Delaware (3)

Maryland (10)

New Jersey (14)

Connecticut (7)

Rhode Island (4)

Massachusetts (11)

Vermont (3)

Maine (4)

DC (3)

Now Mitt Romney commands 180 EV adjusted for the 2010 census:

Alaska (3)

Idaho (4)

Montana (3)

Wyoming (3)

Utah (6)

Arizona (11)

Texas (38)

Oklahoma (7)

Kansas (6)

Nebraska (5)

South Dakota (3)

North Dakota (3)

Missouri (10)

Arkansas (6)

Louisiana (8)

Mississippi (6)

Alabama (9)

Georgia (16)

South Carolina (9)

West Virginia (5)

Kentucky (8)

Tennessee (11)

Now that accounts for 427 EV which leaves 111 EV outstanding.

Now here is how they break down:

a) 5 largest battleground states

Indiana (11)

Ohio (18)

Virginia (13)

North Carolina (15)

Florida (29)

Total 86 EV

And finally 4 smaller swing states:

Colorado (9)

Nevada (6)

Iowa (6)

New Hampshire (4)

Total 25 EV

Now here is how a lot of pundits see the 2012 election. Bottom line--Romney needs to win 4 of the 5 largest battleground states: Indiana appears to be in the bag, but he needs to win Florida for sure and 2 of 3 of Ohio, VA, and NC at a bare minimum to have any chance of becoming the president.

For example with the Goode candidacy putting Virginia in doubt for Romney if Romney were to win Indiana, Ohio, NC and Florida that would increase his total by 73 EV to 253 EV. He would therefore need 17 EV to eke out a bare victory.

Now why I call it the Virgina-Colorado scenario is if Romney loses Virginia he is then forced to win Colorado with its 9 EV and and 2 out of 3 of Iowa, Nevada and NH. In other words if Romney loses both Virginia and Colorado, Obama will be re-elected.

So this begs two questions:

a) What can Romney do to have any chance to win Virginia?

b) What can Romney do to have any chance of winning Colorado?

Imho, he needs to put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket who has the ability to "steal" Goode's conservative support away from him. Otherwise he has to pray Goode doesn't get the 10,000 required signatures to get on the ballot or Goode dies of a heart attack.

As for Colorado, he needs to put on the ticket a westerner with either libertarian or Hispanic ties at a minimum or a rock-ribbed conservative to win over evangelical voters in Colorado. A cushy safe moderate won't cut it in CO or VA.

And conservatives, I think you have to start asking yourself this question: Do you really want to go into the election with a candidate as flawed as Romney or failing that don't you think it would be in your best interests to demand Romney put a rock-ribbed conservative on the ticket to at least to give him a shot at either Virginia or Colorado or both?

[Mr Apple]

Now he wants baby killer Rice as VP!!

Marygonzo, welcome to fr; and btw, you might also want to try tiddly winks while performing hop scotch.

[techno]

I have reflected on the Virginia-Colorado scenario and I stand by what I wrote.

However I think I know what Mitt Romney intends to do:

1) Abandon Virginia and go all in in Wisconsin and its 10 EV. Put Paul Ryan on the ticket who will also help out in Indiana and Ohio. Nate Silver already has given Romney a good chance of winning NC and with the Bushes and Rick Scott in Florida he will feel he should win there as well.

Add all that up you have 83 EV which you can add to the original 180 EV to take Romney to 263 EV.

2)Romney therefore is not forced to win Colorado to become President. He only then needs to win 2 of these 3 states (Nevada, Iowa, NH).

In other words here is a way for Romney to avoid the Virginia-Colorado scenario and for him to have a reasonable shot at being President.

But in this scenario it all comes down to Wisconsin. But if I were in Romney’s shoes I would rather it comes down Wisconsin a less conservative state than Virginia a very conservative state especially in Southern Virginia.

[pistolpackinpapa]

For starters: You can move New Mexico (5), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16) to the GOP Column. Piss on the pundits. After that, how is it looking for Obama? He's now only leading Romney now 216 - 211.

You can also add to Romney's Column, four of the five Battleground States of FL (29) NC (15), VA (13) and IN (11) now, Romney is at 279; enough to win the 270 EVs. AND Don't be surprised if NH and IA go for Romney, raising his total to 289 EVs. This is doable my FReeper Friends

AND..... Did you notice, I never put Ohio, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Colorado in Romney's column; and he still wins? He can win with the solid Red States and FL, VA, NC, MI, WI, IN and NM. And then ice the cake with NH and IA for a total of 289 EVs for Romney

I'm telling you FReepers, this is doable. Romney can win this thing, even if you concede VA to Obama, Romney could still, easily, end up with 276 EVs,

[pistolpackinpapa]

on the Obama states I wouldn’t necessarily bet my life on Wisconsin and Pennsylvania.
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Or Michigan

[Mr Apple]

Your post #43 is right on mark!

[pistolpackinpapa]

Re: Your Post #10:

ARE YOU SERIOUS???? You're counting Utah as "up for grabs"? They vote GOP overwhelmingly even when the candidate is not a Mormon.

[llandres]

“Mickey Mouse would win against Obowma....”

A terrible underestimation, my FRiend.

Unless a miracle happens in August, we’re stuck with Romney and we’d better PRAY he wins.

I’m so curious - how many here have any plans on what to do if BHO gets re-elected? Seriously. ‘Cause our America is toast if that happens, and don’t count on a Republican or Conservative House and Senate to stop him in whatever he tries to do.

[JLS]

See my post 33.

[pistolpackinpapa]

Or should Romney put on the ticket a gay moderate who is for gun control?
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Yes; a Black, Lesbian moderate with an Hispanic surname who is of the Jewish faith and is pro-gun control but anti-amnesty. Now, that’s the ticket.

[Hildy]

Get out and work your ass off to get Romney elected. Work like your life depends on it. Because it does.

[pistolpackinpapa]

Palin should have run.
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Yep!!! Palin should have run. Or DeMint..... Or Ryan.........

[pistolpackinpapa]

Our only hope is mutiny at the convention.
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And Romney would win against a candidate with no campaign coffers, no ads, no staff.... And with NOTHING he has 67 days to run against the guy in the White Hut who’s been running for 3.5 years. It would be Obama in a landslide.

Oh yes, Mary; what a blessed hope that would be.

[pistolpackinpapa]

CORRECTION TO MY POST #52:

marygonzo said: Our only hope is mutiny at the convention.
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My Correction:

And Obama would win against a candidate with no campaign coffers, no ads, no staff.... And with NOTHING he has 67 days to run against the guy in the White Hut who’s been running for 3.5 years. It would be Obama in a landslide.

Oh yes, Mary; what a blessed hope that would be.

[pistolpackinpapa]

I’m voting for Mickey Mouse!
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What Would Jesus Do? (Seriously)

[pistolpackinpapa]

Tiddly Winks...... Hopscotch? Wow! You dated yourself Bro.

[fortheDeclaration]

This will make many people on FR very happy.

[pistolpackinpapa]

how many here have any plans on what to do if BHO gets re-elected?
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

I’m going to join the National Revolt that I think is sure to come.

[publius911]

I'm just guessing here, but is Techno a Soros Funded propaganda group?

Hard to keep track, there are hundreds of them.

[JCBreckenridge]

Indeed, Obama’s got NC all locked up.

[Diogenesis]

Mr. RomneyCARE was CHOSEN to lose — after “winning”
against conservatives by cheating, backstabbing,
and changing the rules.

Mr. RomneyCARE has NO interest in winning, just
making more money by running for Obama and Soros (his
partner and friend in JET BLUE, again).