Posted on 08/19/2012 7:56:32 AM PDT by AdamBomb
One would think that after a full week of Ryan and Romney campaigning strong that they would have maintained a lead in the Rasmussen poll.
For the life of me I do not understand how the kenyan can all of a sudden be up 2 points for 3 days in a row.
Any thoughts?
Ryan isn’t at the top of the ticket.
I was just wondering the same thing.
How do the voters flip flop in one week?
because we’re talking about medicare and tax returns instead of unemployment and inflation?
Don’t lose faith by looking at the polls. Polls are propaganda to make you question. Because they might ‘appear’ right at times, doesn’t make them right all the time. They need you to keep believing in them!
Maybe it`s because of the disrespect he is showing Gov Sarah Palin? That`s the problem for yours truly.
Hey, pollsters all have an agenda, doesn’t matter which one you pick. Gallup had Romney up 2 yesterday.
Personally I do not believe in the “science” of polling
They don’t, statistical noise. Pay attention to the long term trends.
what is weird is the exact opposite happened with the Gallup poll. kenyan was up but now Mitt is up 2
The MSM has been bashing Ryan all week. The fact that they’re only down a couple points is a good sign.
Has Ras always had Obama +10 among ‘unaffiliated’ voters?
Romney is not playing well with voters to the right of his liberal base.
Obama has managed to make this election a referendum on Mitt Romney. If someone were to land here from another planet, turned on the TV and listened to Obama speak, it could easily be assumed that Obama (and not Romney) is the incumbent.
I was aware of the, which made me even more confused.
Its simple folks. They’re setting Mitt up to get a big bounce after the convention.
Numbers drop a little in the weeks before, then they increase immediately afterward.
That doesn't result in poll number swings, but could very well lead to a blowout all the same as people reject another 4 years of the disaster obama has implemented as policy.
The change is so slight that it is not statistically significant. In other words there is random variability in who gets asked their voting intentions, and for a poll to register a change this small means that it’s likely the public mood has not changed.
“because we’re talking about medicare and tax returns instead of unemployment and inflation?”
We have a winner. The tax return issue was almost dead and the idiotic Romney campaign breathed life back into it with his public 13% assertion.
The polls are out there simply to make news for the MSM. The pundits and newsreaders do little else then ask questions proposed to fill time like you have.
The MSM bashes republicans all year, everyday but we (also thanks to Sarah Palin) won a victory in 2010.
How is it that the Romney campaign and his supporters have managed to allow this to be a referendum on him and Onama appears to be the outsider and incumbent?
I blame it more on the Romney supporters and pundits than I do Romney himself (although the buck ultimately stops at Romney)
Too much time spent on MEDICARE by people lie Hannity and other AM talkers.
It's the economy that's at issue. And Obama is who should be judged. It's his economy, not the republican's and not Mitt's.
I think the Democrats are hitting Ryan hard on the Medicare and scaring people and Romney’s refusal to release his tax papers are probably not making the independents happy. The real conservatives never like Mitt to begin with. A lot of time to election day. Anything can happen. The convention would be a great time to put a real conservative on the ticket with Ryan as the VP...we would win for sure then.
Its august and people are on vacation not answering their phones.
The most telling statistic is that Zero still only scores in the mid 40’s. As the incumbent, if the election were held today, he would probably score not much higher than that. In other words, the current Rasmussen poll is not worrisome at this time.
The change is so slight that it is not statistically significant.
True but the scary thing is the that Ryan never really got a good bounce that most VP’s get when announced. That COULD be a problem.
And don't forget that the Romney/Ryan team has yet to officially enunciate their income tax policy. I would not be surprised that they would seriously look at a highly-simplified tax code akin to what Steve Forbes proposed in 1996--a proposal that could fundamentally change the economy of the USA for the better thanks to way lower yearly compliance costs and way more encouragement of savings and capital investment in the USA.
It’s been the trend that Obama does better on the weekends and once Monday rolls around Romney does better - hard to describe why. The beset polls I see are crowd attendance and RnR are winning that poll BIG.
Polls are taken to tell you how you should vote and to give the ruling efete talking heads something to act expert about.
Ravenstar
Yeah and Obama's "intentionally limiting the audiences at the rallies".
I don't buy it.The higher the number now the higher it will be during that "bounce" you claim Romney's trying to suppress until after the convention.
My advice to the RomneyBots is: You had better get his numbers up as high as possible now. One of the October surprises is going to be "Romney's Flip Flips". They have the videos all ready to go. (Romney vs Kennedy debates)
The most effective argument Mittens can make on the tax return crap, he’s chosen to avoid.
He says he’s not releasing any more returns. Fine. But, at least throw it back in 0bama’s face. It should be: “I’m not releasing any more tax returns, much like Barak 0bama is not releasing any of his birth, education, college, or selective service records.”
But, then...we are talking about Mittens...
That’s what I notice here in my corner of Texas. The desire to remove Obama is at a fever-pitch intensity. But by the same token, no one I encounter remotely likes or trusts Romney. Makes for a peculiar dichotomy.
Exactly! Get it over already. Make a deal with Obama. Tell him to unseal all of his records and you will release the tax returns - but not until. End of story.
Obama's acting as if he is the Washington outsider, the Republicans have the majority in both Houses and Romney is the one running for re-election.
That's what I call running a terrible campaign.
Mark Levin's orange juice can would have been beating Obama in the polls by now given the economic situatation.
That's because Obama IS the incumbent, and not Romney.
This has me scratching my head, too. On Monday of last week... two days after bring Ryan on board, Romney jumped to +4. Now he`s -2 and at his lowest level of support (43%) since March.
Are the sheeple getting worried the gub`mint gravy train might be lightening the load?
America has no excuses this time. Consider Nov. 6 to be an IQ test.
Lies...damned lies...statistics...polls.
Well, I meant it the other way around. Romney should not be on the defensive as if he's trying to justify this recession of his. It's Obama's recession. He and his party own it.
If America chooses Obama, the buck stops at Romney and the RINOs that helped nominate him.
If America votes against Romney, it means he ran a terrible campaign.
The drop for Mitt is more surprising to me than the slight bump Obama is seeing. He’s still low for an incumbent and rose to his high watermark for the summer. Mitt dropped below his low watermark if he hit 43%. There is something different. It will be interesting to see if this trend stays during the week.
It may be statistical noise...some areas of the country are going back to school, some are in vacation time. I also wonder if there was a change in the methodology. Doesn’t seem like anything that occurred this week would have impacted the race this week.
Yep that is true. Nobody likes Romney or Obama around here.
I know, I was just being a tedious jerk.
Neither party has a popular candidate so you'll see this all the way to election day.
So, how do you keep ahead of this? Well, you can keep your eye on Joltin' Joe Biden ~ every time he's turned loose to embarrass somebody, or intimidate them, the Democrats lose share ~ not a lot ~ but maybe 100,000 votes. These are permanant losses too, and they do show up in the popularity ratings.
With Republicans, getting Ryan on board with a show merely reminded yet more of them of how little they like Romney. Bing Bong there goes the bounce.
Once the conventions are over we'll see the pollsters turn entirely to PROBABLE VOTERS. First, there's an initial statistical problem ~ there are a lot of people NOT PLANNING ON VOTING for president this time. Once the pollsters get a grasp on that, they'll adjust the numbers and you might even see a jump up in both major candidates, but that'll be swiftly whittled down ~ and finally, the race will be decided by only the true believers who, if you can believe it, actually think highly of Obama or Romney. These people are immune to the issues!
I expect an historically low turnout for President this time with both candidates getting fewer votes than were voted for their party counterpart last time, and actually maybe no more votes than are cast down ballot.
Usually the votes for President are greater than those for Representatives ~ this time I"m suggesting they'l be less ~ without looking I"d guess the last time that happened was back in the 1820s or something.
The Romney campaign does not have legal access to the monies raised for the campaign until after the convention.
Obama as the incumbent President does have legal access to campaign monies raised. He has been spending his funds like a drunken sailor with non stop negative attack ads.
Since Romney has risen in the polls to a virtual statistical tie, this is great news. He has risen despite the dirtiest presidential ad campaign in modern history. His campaign is even dirtier than Lyndon Johnson’s back in the 60s.
Romney has shown that he knows how to go for blood in the primaries. He can be politically ruthless when necessary.
After the primary I think it will be, “Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of political warfare.” Obama has already done this.
Good point. And the folks mostly still get their news from the MSM not alternative Fox or Talk Radio. The takers simply now are outvoting the makers. And stop the baloney about Mitt being the one who is losing the votes. Actually, the Right has been very strong in its support . The problem is the Blue states large electoral votes outnumber the small red states. Period. Mitt needs to win back some of the Bama Red states of 2008. If he does, he will squeak through. If not, our Republic is done. He needs Ohio, Pa. NV, NM IN MI and some combo of WVA, MN and NH.
You want Obama to win, so your stubborn “prediction” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
This is series and hugh ~ probably.
Ryan and Romney are so different, it’s difficult to take them seriously as a team (also Romney’s “using” of Ryan is becoming all too obvious). A shake-up at the convention would be good. I would also like to hear Ryan issue more support for the unborn and their mothers, however, I realize he’s not “in control” of his speak. But if they are included (there are 50+ million innocents; big numbers!), Our Father may help this election progress in a better way. Economy is important, but it means nothing without life.
He will definitely get WV - no doubt about it.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/2012/07/29/why_romney039s_numbers_aren039t_dropping_285990.html
Why Romney numbers aren’t dropping.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.