Skewed Columbus Dispatch poll of Ohio shows padded Obama lead

Examiner.com ^ | 10-1-2012 | Dean Chambers

[GilGil]

When the data from the Columbus Dispatch poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan of the registered voters of Ohio, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 37 percent, Democrats at 36 percent and Independents at 27 percent, the results calculate to Obama leading much closer, by a 47.5 percent to 45.7 percent with about three percent undecided. A large majority of the undecided voters, who usually break for the challenger in a presidential race involving the incumbent president, can be expected to swing toward Romney and lead to a likely Romney majority on election day according to this polling data.

[GilGil]

Here come all the reasons why Romney is sure to lose when nothing could be further from the truth.

[muawiyah]

So, here's the way to get satisfaction every poll. Just reset Republicans to 98%, Democrats to 1% and others to 1%.

That should give you a Republican landslide every single time.

No need to ever worry about about political polls.

[Shadowfax]

Why not? That’s what the libs do.

[GilGil]

I knew I could count on a fly swatter!

[GilGil]

As I said all the Freeper wannabes will come out and tell us every reason we are failing. Boy! they are punctual.

[Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America]

“Romney is going to lose” is a good thing. It will energize the Republican/Independent base to go vote and would-be 0bama voters will stay home and not vote. That’s a better thing!

[LS]

I’ve tried, but I can’t find an e-mail for this guy to get our spreadsheet data to him.

[GilGil]

That would make sense

[parksstp]

Historical Turnout of Democrats in OH:

2004 (35%)
2008 (39%)
2010 (36%)

Historical Turnout of Republicans in OH:

2004 (40%)
2008 (31%)
2010 (37%)

Just about everyone on both sides max-ed out in 2004. Obama’s surge in the state came from new voters not expected to vote anywhere near the numbers they did in 2008. Yet, even in 2010, when Dem turnout was lighter, they managed to get 36% out. This leads me to believe that the turnout for Dems will be either 36 or 37%.

The GOP is all over the map. We ran to the polls for Bush in record numbers in 2004, but the Obama surge, plus dissatisfaction for McCain with many GOPers changing Registration, sunk it to a new low in 2008. But, it picked back up in the midterms, and the GOP still has significant enthusiasm (although its limited due to the candidate being Romney) but not as much as 2010. The GOP will probably be 36-37%.

Indies have made up 25% (2004), 30% (2008), and 27% (2012). Some GOP lost in 2008 may have come back in 2012 to vote in the OH primary, which will probably keep this number around 27-28% rather than the 30% in 2008.

So if I had to guess for 2012, I’d say it’s safe to project a model for OH with a turnout of R(36 or 37) D(36) and I (27 or 28).

I have not had time to go through each of OH’s 88 counties yet. But the analysis of unskewing this poll seems to match what I have assumed, that Obama is slightly ahead in OH. To win OH, Romney must win the state outside of Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) by about 200,000 votes. To put things in perspective, Bush defeated Kerry by 371,000 votes outside of Cuyahoga County, while McCain defeated Obama by just 214 votes, hence losing the state. Outside of Cleveland, Romney, probably has anywhere from a 130,000-140,000 advantage. That number needs to be over 200,000 by Election day, preferably 225,000 to be safe.