Skip to comments.Middling Report With Upward Revisions
Posted on 10/05/2012 8:44:12 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie
The September Non-Farm Payrolls came in at + 114,000 with a lower unemployment rate 7.8%, slightly higher labor force participation and upward revisions of 40,000 to July (+181,000) and 46,000 in August (+142,000). The 2012 average monthly employment gain is +146,000 down from the 2011 average of 153,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 63.9% from the August lows of 63.7%.
This number will receive massive attention, and significant skepticism from some quarters, given the presidential contest and the focus on jobs by the candidates. We need about 110,000 net new jobs each moth to keep up with population growth. Thus, we are doing a touch better than treading water of late.
We continue to see very tepid GDP growth and underwhelming employment performance. All these numbers must be seen in the context of recovery from the second worse macro economic performance period in the last 80 years. Thus, we would like to see stronger job, wage and GDP growth than we have seen.
Wages are barely keeping up with headline inflation, in the best of months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics tells us that average hourly earnings have increased 1.8% over the last 12 months. The BLS also tells us that the average increase in consumer prices, increased by 1.7%. The CPI less food and energy was up 1.9%, food increased by 2.0%. Thus, the average wage has not increased over the last year or the last 5 years. The 92% of the labor force that is working has not seen a wage increase in a very long time. Thusly, the economy is not improving for the majority of the labor force. Link:
Lately, there is profound political spin and attention to the numbers as well.
(Excerpt) Read more at seekingalpha.com ...
Hope the 7.8 number is a topic on Thursdays VP debate. It would be nice to see Ryan explain the 7.8 calculation and why the U6 numbers are not included. Also showing the ACTUAL unemployed rate with U6 included.
If participation went up and jobs created were a measly 144,000 then the rate would be flat. The question is where they ginned up the 866,000 jobs they just “found.”
The BLS numbers stink like a rotten red herring.
See if they ring true to you.
Number of new jobs created = 114,000
Reduction in unemployment from 8.1% to 7.8%
Decrease in unemployed = 456,000
Rise in total employment = 873,000
Number of unemployed persons drops from 12,544,000 to 12,088,000
BLS Employment Situation Summary:
“The unemployment rate decreased to 7.8 percent in September”
“Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 114,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported”
“Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little change.”
“The unemployment rate declined by 0.3 percentage point to 7.8 percent in September.”
“The number of unemployed persons, at 12.1 million, decreased by 456,000 in September. (See table A-1.)”
Sad how much disdain this administration has for people.
Some great quotes from a CNN poster:
The Labor Department, based on a broad survey of employers, said 114,000 jobs were added in September.
But the unemployment rate itself is based on a separate “household survey,” which showed a whopping 873,000 new jobs in September.
“This must be an anomaly,” former Congressional Budget Office director Doug Holtz-Eakin said in a snap analysis of the numbers. “It is out of line with any of the other data..”
Holtz-Eakin noted the household survey is smaller, suggesting it is not as reliable. He called estimate of 873,000 new jobs “implausible.”
Liberal economist Dean Baker, with the Center for Economic and Policy Research, called the September rate drop “almost certainly a statistical fluke.”
It only took 2+ months for them to creatively create 325,000 jobs. Hell, if they had started back in January they could have fabricated a fictitious "shortage of jobs" scheme by now.
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