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Gallup Poll's New 7-Day Average Defies Logic!
Self,Vanity | 10/8/2012 | self

Posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:32 PM PDT by zencycler

Look at the new 7-Day average numbers Gallup now has, as of Oct 7th, showing Obama getting 50% to Romney's 45%. (Link - 7 day at Upper Right) Here's the problem:

Gallup says the 3-day average, pre-debate, was 0-50% and R-45%, and also says the average for the 3 days after the debate (Oct 4 to Oct 6) was 0-47% and R-47%.

So by my calculation, in order to get the 7-day average back to where Gallup now has it, here's what would have to happen:

Date___10/1___10/2___10/3___10/4___10/5___10/6___10/7___Avg.

Obama___50____50____50____47____47____47____59____50.0
Romney__45____45____45____47____47____47____39____45.0

There is NO WAY that the one-day polling on 10/7 suddenly could have surged to 59% for Obama and 39% for Romney, and based on Gallup's own numbers for Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, I don't see any other way for them to get to this 7-day rolling average.

Am I missing something?


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; obama; poll; romney

1 posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:36 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: zencycler

Are you sure that Gallup uses a 3 day moving average like Rasmussen? I thought he used a 7 day average.

But regardless, your point is valid.


2 posted on 10/08/2012 1:54:36 PM PDT by InterceptPoint
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To: zencycler

Yes the crack pipe that those over at Gallup are smoking as well as the DOJ investigation *laughs*


3 posted on 10/08/2012 1:55:47 PM PDT by zimfam007 (Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
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To: zencycler

Gallup plays with the numbers all the time. They had a 7 point swing once, meaning a 21 increase in the three day average. They have been doing this and it has nothing to do with the Gov’t. suing them. They no longer show the “internals” unless you pay them. They are not using Likely voters in the same consistency they did in prior elections. It is more of the fraud.


4 posted on 10/08/2012 1:58:10 PM PDT by DrDude (Governor of the 57th State)
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To: zencycler

I am worried he will ‘win’ just like Chavez ‘won’ today

possibly with actual tanks in the US streets too


5 posted on 10/08/2012 1:58:21 PM PDT by Mr. K ("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
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To: zencycler

It is just an outlier. Pay no attention to it.


6 posted on 10/08/2012 2:00:06 PM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.)
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To: zencycler

Gallup must of borrowed some of the Zogby magic sauce.


7 posted on 10/08/2012 2:00:06 PM PDT by smoothsailing
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To: zencycler

look at the 7 day averages.

10/1 50 44
10/2 49 45
10/3 49 45
10/4 50 45
10/5 49 46
10/6 49 46
10/7 50 45

This is not a huge swing. They were never tied in this poll of registered voters.


8 posted on 10/08/2012 2:01:06 PM PDT by mcjordansc
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To: InterceptPoint
Are you sure that Gallup uses a 3 day moving average like Rasmussen? I thought he used a 7 day average

Not normally, but they provided it for the debate:

Link

Excerpt:

Registered voters' preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday's presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.

434
9 posted on 10/08/2012 2:01:45 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: zencycler
Am I missing something?

Patience.

10 posted on 10/08/2012 2:02:10 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (Ambassador Stevens is dead and the Chevy Volt is alive!)
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To: zimfam007

maybe the stunning improvement in the Friday jobs report was a real game changer out there when Obama magically caused unemployment to recede...


11 posted on 10/08/2012 2:03:36 PM PDT by epluribus_2
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To: zencycler

It’s Gallup! The outfit David Axelrod threatens. Ignore it.


12 posted on 10/08/2012 2:07:39 PM PDT by From The Deer Stand
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To: mcjordansc
You're missing the point - if the only data we had was Gallup's 7-day rolling averages, then you're right. But when you compare Gallup's 7-day average on Oct 7th to the 3-day averages before and after the debate (see post #9) then the 7-day average makes no sense - and even the ones from 10/5 and 10/6 are questionable.

The math just doesn't work when you use Gallup's own numbers for the 3 days before and after the debate.
13 posted on 10/08/2012 2:08:45 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: InterceptPoint

A 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters means exactly jack and squat.

This is nothing more than a headline hump by Gallup.


14 posted on 10/08/2012 2:09:38 PM PDT by PittsburghAfterDark
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To: zencycler

I think you are confusing the 7 day tracker with their 3 day tracker. They do both. The 3 day tracker was 47-47. The 7 day is 49-46.


15 posted on 10/08/2012 2:19:12 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: InterceptPoint
On somethings they use 3 day and they also use 7 day. In my opinion they use whatever day polling would benefit Obama.
In the past it seemed it was 3 day but right after the DNC
convention I noticed Gallop using 7 day polling and of course Obama was up.
16 posted on 10/08/2012 2:42:59 PM PDT by funfan
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To: zencycler

How did Romney get 39 on October 7th- Rasmussen had him at 49?


17 posted on 10/08/2012 2:45:44 PM PDT by funfan
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To: mcjordansc

and registered voters is a meaningless sample


18 posted on 10/08/2012 3:47:50 PM PDT by Nifster
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To: funfan

On October 7 they only talked to 10 voters—6 of them were for Obama and 4 for Romney. The figures came out as 59% and 39% because one of the voters on each side was “not all there.”


19 posted on 10/08/2012 4:16:31 PM PDT by Verginius Rufus
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To: zencycler
Am I missing something?

Perhaps, you're missing that polls are accurate 19 times out of 20, 95% of the time.

20 posted on 10/08/2012 4:17:22 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
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To: nhwingut
I think you are confusing the 7 day tracker with their 3 day tracker. They do both. The 3 day tracker was 47-47. The 7 day is 49-46

No, I'm not confusing them, I'm comparing them and trying to reconcile them. If you use Gallup's numbers for the 3 days before and the 3 days after the debate, then you add results for ONE more day (Oct 7th), you cannot come up with their rolloing average of 50-45 unless on Oct 7th the daily result was 59-39, which makes absolutely no sense.
21 posted on 10/08/2012 4:46:54 PM PDT by zencycler
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To: zencycler

You are seeing why Gallup was number 18 in accuracy in 2008.


22 posted on 10/08/2012 5:20:10 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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