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Gallup Poll's New 7-Day Average Defies Logic!
Posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:32 PM PDT by zencycler
Look at the new 7-Day average numbers Gallup now has, as of Oct 7th, showing Obama getting 50% to Romney's 45%. (Link - 7 day at Upper Right) Here's the problem:
Gallup says the 3-day average, pre-debate, was 0-50% and R-45%, and also says the average for the 3 days after the debate (Oct 4 to Oct 6) was 0-47% and R-47%.
So by my calculation, in order to get the 7-day average back to where Gallup now has it, here's what would have to happen:
There is NO WAY that the one-day polling on 10/7 suddenly could have surged to 59% for Obama and 39% for Romney, and based on Gallup's own numbers for Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, I don't see any other way for them to get to this 7-day rolling average.
Am I missing something?
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; gallup; obama; poll; romney
posted on 10/08/2012 1:47:36 PM PDT
Are you sure that Gallup uses a 3 day moving average like Rasmussen? I thought he used a 7 day average.
But regardless, your point is valid.
Yes the crack pipe that those over at Gallup are smoking as well as the DOJ investigation *laughs*
posted on 10/08/2012 1:55:47 PM PDT
(Courage is not simply one of the virtues, but the form of every virtue at the testing point.)
Gallup plays with the numbers all the time. They had a 7 point swing once, meaning a 21 increase in the three day average. They have been doing this and it has nothing to do with the Gov’t. suing them. They no longer show the “internals” unless you pay them. They are not using Likely voters in the same consistency they did in prior elections. It is more of the fraud.
posted on 10/08/2012 1:58:10 PM PDT
(Governor of the 57th State)
I am worried he will ‘win’ just like Chavez ‘won’ today
possibly with actual tanks in the US streets too
posted on 10/08/2012 1:58:21 PM PDT
by Mr. K
("The only thing the World would hate more than the USA in charge is the USA NOT in charge")
It is just an outlier. Pay no attention to it.
posted on 10/08/2012 2:00:06 PM PDT
by Blood of Tyrants
(Never believe anything in politics until it has been officially denied.)
Gallup must of borrowed some of the Zogby magic sauce.
look at the 7 day averages.
10/1 50 44
10/2 49 45
10/3 49 45
10/4 50 45
10/5 49 46
10/6 49 46
10/7 50 45
This is not a huge swing. They were never tied in this poll of registered voters.
Are you sure that Gallup uses a 3 day moving average like Rasmussen? I thought he used a 7 day average
Not normally, but they provided it for the debate:
Registered voters' preferences for president are evenly split in the first three days of Gallup tracking since last Wednesday's presidential debate. In the three days prior to the debate, Barack Obama had a five-percentage-point edge among registered voters.
posted on 10/08/2012 2:01:45 PM PDT
Am I missing something?
posted on 10/08/2012 2:02:10 PM PDT
(Ambassador Stevens is dead and the Chevy Volt is alive!)
maybe the stunning improvement in the Friday jobs report was a real game changer out there when Obama magically caused unemployment to recede...
It’s Gallup! The outfit David Axelrod threatens. Ignore it.
You're missing the point - if the only data we had was Gallup's 7-day rolling averages, then you're right. But when you compare Gallup's 7-day average on Oct 7th to the 3-day averages before and after the debate (see post #9) then the 7-day average makes no sense - and even the ones from 10/5 and 10/6 are questionable.
The math just doesn't work when you use Gallup's own numbers for the 3 days before and after the debate.
A 7 day rolling average of REGISTERED voters means exactly jack and squat.
This is nothing more than a headline hump by Gallup.
I think you are confusing the 7 day tracker with their 3 day tracker. They do both. The 3 day tracker was 47-47. The 7 day is 49-46.
posted on 10/08/2012 2:19:12 PM PDT
(Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
On somethings they use 3 day and they also use 7 day. In my opinion they use whatever day polling would benefit Obama.
In the past it seemed it was 3 day but right after the DNC
convention I noticed Gallop using 7 day polling and of course Obama was up.
posted on 10/08/2012 2:42:59 PM PDT
How did Romney get 39 on October 7th- Rasmussen had him at 49?
posted on 10/08/2012 2:45:44 PM PDT
and registered voters is a meaningless sample
posted on 10/08/2012 3:47:50 PM PDT
On October 7 they only talked to 10 voters—6 of them were for Obama and 4 for Romney. The figures came out as 59% and 39% because one of the voters on each side was “not all there.”
Am I missing something?
Perhaps, you're missing that polls are accurate 19 times out of 20, 95% of the time.
posted on 10/08/2012 4:17:22 PM PDT
(Teach a man to fish and you lose a Democratic voter.)
I think you are confusing the 7 day tracker with their 3 day tracker. They do both. The 3 day tracker was 47-47. The 7 day is 49-46
No, I'm not confusing them, I'm comparing them and trying to reconcile them. If you use Gallup's numbers for the 3 days before and the 3 days after the debate, then you add results for ONE more day (Oct 7th), you cannot come up with their rolloing average of 50-45 unless on Oct 7th the daily result was 59-39, which makes absolutely no sense.
You are seeing why Gallup was number 18 in accuracy in 2008.
posted on 10/08/2012 5:20:10 PM PDT
(Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
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