Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Tell Me Again How 2012 Won’t Be Another “Shellacking”?
Deprogramming Liberalism ^ | October 2/12 | Jim Autio

Posted on 10/30/2012 2:44:03 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism

[October 2 /12]

The story lately has been about over-sampling of Democrats in polls, leading to an orthodox media conclusion that President Obama has opened a large lead over challenger, Mitt Romney. I have a question, however.

In 2010 the Republicans decimated the Democrats in what President Obama termed a “shellacking”. That election was fought based on voter approval of Obama’s first two years of policies. Well, now it is 2012, and President Obama’s approval rating is identical to that of late 2010: Obama’s Approval Rating Mirrors 2010. So, tell me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

We are constantly reminded that the economy is the most important issue in the presidential election. President Obama insists that Americans are better off now than they were four years ago. But I am willing to bet if you were to look at Americans’ bank statements, they would vehemently disagree: Americans’ Incomes Have Fallen $3,040 During the Obama ‘Recovery’. So once again, please tell me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

President Obama insists that the economy is in an improving recovery. Shouldn’t manufacturing then be picking up? Largest drop in factory orders since 2009 So, here we go again. Pretty please, with jam on it, explain to me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

We keep being told that independents decide elections. No doubt President Obama won the majority of independents’ support in 2008. This time around President Obama is in big trouble with independents: Media Ignore Independents’ Swing Toward Romney. I am pleading with you. Please, please tell me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

One more time, the polls repeatedly reveal that the state of the economy is the most important concern of voters in 2012. It takes no leap of genius to figure out that whoever voters feel most comfortable with in regard to the economy will also win the election: Polls Romney leads Obama 51% to 44% in trust to handling the economy. This is getting very tiring. Let’s put an end to this by you telling me right now how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

In 2008 Republicans were demoralized and Democrats were enthusiastic about voting – the enthusiasm gap. It turned into a huge Democrat win. This year is a complete reversal: Republicans have opened a big enthusiasm gap: 64% say they are more enthusiastic than usual about voting, compared to 48% of Democrats. OK. Enough of being the nice guy – just spell it all out how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Here’s more confirming Democrat’s lack of voter enthusiasm. Democratic voter registrations are down much more than Republican registrations. I’m done – please just lay it all out and explain to me how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 1: Well, President Obama mailed in his debate performance last night just as he has mailed in his stint as President. 67% of those who watched the debate said that Mitt Romney won the debate: “No presidential candidate has topped 60% in that question since it was first asked in 1984″ Tell me, was that a presage of a coming “shellacking”?

Update 2: The number of Americans who watched last night’s Obama meltdown was up a full 29% from the number who watched the first debate in the 2008 election: More people watch than in 2008 How is it that this will not translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 3: This just in from the IRS – yes, the IRS! (You can’t find a bigger authority on taxes than the IRS.) Obama tax hike threatens one million small businesses One more time – how won’t this translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 4: In the Gallup poll, as of October 2, Mitt Romney is polling higher than every challenger who has gone on to win the presidency since 1968: Romney Has Best Gallup Tracking Poll Numbers Since 1968 How can this not turn into another “shellacking”?

Update 5: Gallup sees a 15% swing in the ratio of Republican to Democrat voters in the 2012 election from the 2008 election. In 2008 it was D+12. This time it will be R+3. Gallup: 2012 Electorate More Republican than 2004 Tell me again how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 6: I had heard that undecideds on election day mostly break for the challenger. So I did a Google search:
Over 80% of the time, most or all of the undecideds voted for the challenger
Eighty percent of the undecided vote went to the challengers
72% of all undecideds broke toward the challenger
So tell me one more time how this won’t translate into another “shellacking”?

Update 7: In 2008 on October 28 Obama had a 15% lead in early voting ballots. This election Romney has a 7% lead – a 22% swing from 2008: Gallup: Obama’s Early Vote Advantage Collapses 22-Points Over 2008
How can this not be another “shellacking”?


TOPICS: Politics
KEYWORDS: election; shellacking
For context, this post was created the day before the first presidential debate. The updates have been added progressively up to today, October 30.
1 posted on 10/30/2012 2:44:12 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism
"a “shellacking”"

Hopefully this will be more like a beautiful, watertight varnishing.

2 posted on 10/30/2012 2:47:33 PM PDT by Paladin2
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism
"just spell it all out how this won’t translate into another shellacking?"

This won't translate into another shellacking because we live in a totalitarian dictatorship/police state. Those who oppose a totalitarian dictator (or his police) do not get their way. They shellack no one.


3 posted on 10/30/2012 2:57:55 PM PDT by I see my hands (Dictators don't lose, you do.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism

a newbie and possibly a ramble rouser...welcome....nice to add your insights 6 days before the election...


4 posted on 10/30/2012 3:02:28 PM PDT by cherry
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism

Welcome to FR nOOb...


5 posted on 10/30/2012 3:03:45 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cherry; DeprogramLiberalism

I’d like to say welcome to the newbie rabble-rouser.

Welcome to FR.

No one knows the future, and those that tell you THEY do, are about as likely to be right, as you.

Had someone come out Sunday evening and said that Hurricane Sandy was going to take an immediate left turn for no reason... that poster would have been ridiculed to no end.


6 posted on 10/30/2012 3:10:16 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 ( If you think I'm crazy, just wait until you talk to my invisible friend.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism

Good job of putting together some links and facts to support your opinion.


7 posted on 10/30/2012 3:13:41 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 ( If you think I'm crazy, just wait until you talk to my invisible friend.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2

I’d settle for plain ole white washing.


8 posted on 10/30/2012 3:14:47 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: I see my hands
So I'll put you down as pessimistic.
9 posted on 10/30/2012 3:15:04 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: cherry

Thanks for the welcome.

What’s a ramble rouser?


10 posted on 10/30/2012 3:19:31 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Vendome

Thank you for the welcome.


11 posted on 10/30/2012 3:19:42 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Paladin2

Nuke to solid glass would also work.

Out of orbit, of course.


12 posted on 10/30/2012 3:25:59 PM PDT by freedomlover
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: UCANSEE2

Thank you for the welcome. What’s with the rabble-rouser? Does that have some in-house meaning at FR?

As for predicting the future, that’s not really the purpose of my post. It’s more of a raw-raw, go-team sort of thing. (Although I do personally think it will be a shellacking.)


13 posted on 10/30/2012 3:27:56 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: UCANSEE2
Good job of putting together some links and facts to support your opinion. Thank you.
14 posted on 10/30/2012 3:28:39 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 7 | View Replies]

Support Free Republic

15 posted on 10/30/2012 3:32:56 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=om93destr)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism
What’s with the rabble-rouser? Does that have some in-house meaning at FR?

Not really. I'd just let it slide off my back like water off a duck.

16 posted on 10/30/2012 3:39:00 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 ( If you think I'm crazy, just wait until you talk to my invisible friend.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: UCANSEE2
No problem. I describe myself on my blog as a polite polemist, but I can rouse it up with the rabble if need be.
17 posted on 10/30/2012 4:07:04 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 16 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism

;-)


18 posted on 10/30/2012 4:31:29 PM PDT by Vendome (Don't take life so seriously, you won't live through it anyway)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism
Thanks for the links. I think you're being far too pessimistic, but then most people here think I've pulled my predictions off a crashed space alien .

I've been predicting for months, since before the conventions, that Obama would lose by 59% to 39% popular vote, and take 140 or less electoral votes.

Fat chance, everyone says. That 47% of government dependent people won't give up the freebies, they say.

There are some numerical clues, and some not so numerical, that I strongly believe support the tsunami prediction.

Obama took Independents by +8 points in 2008; Romney now gets the Independents by +14 (probably much more). That's at least a 22-point shift to the (R) for a full third of the voting populace from 2008.

Story after story supports my contention that the 2008 turnout among black voters is NOT going to happen again. Some predict levels like 2004 or 2000, and of those who turn out, Obama will NOT be getting 96% like in 2008. For instance, in NC Obama is getting less than 80% of the black vote. That alone spells a Democrat apocalypse. He had to pay people to come to his stupid convention, and then he had to bus them in from SC, then Atlanta, then Pluto, just to fill a down-sized event.

There's more, but I believe the midwest coal and rust-belt states are going to fall to Romney like a domino train.

19 posted on 10/30/2012 4:32:45 PM PDT by meadsjn
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism
It only becomes a shellacking if everyone does not assume a Romney win and remembers that we are voting against Obamalamadingdong and not for a third party that has a snowflake's chance in hell of winning, but will absolutely dilute the Romney vote. No need to send me nasty replies. I am a conservative which makes me according to DemocRats and Libertarians as a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, Muslim hater. Oh yeah, I'm also a Southern redneck which pretty much makes me hopeless. At least that what the people at the church tell me. Have a nice day, y'all.
20 posted on 10/30/2012 5:21:55 PM PDT by cashless (Unlike Obama and his supporters, I'd rather be a TEA BAGGER than a TEA BAGGEE.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: meadsjn
Thanks for the links.

Your welcome.

I'll put you down as an optimist - extreme optimist.

21 posted on 10/30/2012 6:34:43 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: cashless
I am a conservative which makes me according to DemocRats and Libertarians as a racist, sexist, bigot, homophobe, Muslim hater. Oh yeah, I'm also a Southern redneck which pretty much makes me hopeless.

Oh, stop bragging - I doubt you'll impress anyone here. ;-}

As fed up as Americans are at the state of the economy, I doubt complacency will be a problem.

22 posted on 10/30/2012 6:36:30 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: DeprogramLiberalism
I have added another update to the blog post.

Update 8: Turns out that the Romney lead in early voters in the last update may be more important than just the numbers. It seems base Democrats are voting early more so than base Republicans, leaving it more likely of a larger election day turnout for Republicans. (I have to admit though, that this one is a bit iffy to me.)
Some see GOP voting tsunami coming
Anyway, even if this doesn’t work out, how will everything else not translate into another “shellacking”?

23 posted on 10/30/2012 6:36:30 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: cherry

Someone rousing my ramble is nearly as traumatic as being shot in the fracas.

Believe me, getting capped in the fracas sure does smart.


24 posted on 10/30/2012 10:37:04 PM PDT by noprogs (Borders, Language, Culture....all should be preserved)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: All
Update of Update 7: Pew confirms Gallup: Pew: Obama’s Early Vote Average Collapses 26-Points Over 2008
25 posted on 10/31/2012 8:06:35 PM PDT by DeprogramLiberalism
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
Bloggers & Personal
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson