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Romney Vote Total Passes McCain's
2012 National Popular Vote Tracker ^ | November 21, 2012 | Dave Wasserman

Posted on 11/21/2012 10:10:03 AM PST by Strategerist

Romney: 60,099,431 McCain: 59,948,323

Obama 2012: 64,185,237 Obama 2008: 69,498,516

(Excerpt) Read more at docs.google.com ...


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KEYWORDS: election; mccain; romney; romney2012
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As an additional note, of the 10 states that have reported final vote totals, total turnout in 2012 was HIGHER than in 2008.

One would hope this would be the end of the endless stupid articles trying to find a cause for a non-existent decline of millions of votes from McCain to Romney, or a decline in total turnout, but I doubt it; if people want to believe something, they will believe it, even if it is obviously wrong, and people themselves have a remarkable inability to simply admit they were wrong.

I had been doing my own spreadsheet, but Wasserman is doing county-by-county updates for states that do not update their own statewide totals, which I just don't have time to do. I have checked his numbers with various State Secretary of State sites and they're valid.

California still has 1.2 million unprocessed ballots and Wasserman believes that NY and CA have 2 million unprocessed or unreported votes between them, so this total will rise, and of course 39 other states and DC do not have final vote totals yet.

An excellent question is the growth in voting age population from 2008 to 2012; the Census does not have a 2012 voting age population estimate, but it did in 2010; taking the 2008-2010 change and doubling it, the voting age population nationwide went up about 4%; Romney's current total is of course less than McCain factoring in voting age population, but the additional uncounted votes will likely put Romney's total very close to or slightly over McCain's total, even if McCain's total is adjusted.

1 posted on 11/21/2012 10:10:03 AM PST by Strategerist
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To: Strategerist

Romney’s vote count isn’t enough of an increase to account for the growth in population.

And it certainly isn’t enough considering that instead of having an unpopular GOP president and a crashing economy, Romney was running against Obama, who jammed Obamacare down our throats and presided over a continuing, disastrous economy.

Considering that at least some of those millions fewer who voted for Obama this time must have voted for his opponent, yes, regular base turnout was lower this time around.


2 posted on 11/21/2012 10:18:41 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Strategerist

Let me know when he passes Obama.


3 posted on 11/21/2012 10:19:45 AM PST by arichtaxpayer
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To: Strategerist

Thank you for this. Time for everyone to stop piling on Romney as somehow a lousy candidate. Or blaming fraud or that stupid ORCA program.

It is simple demographics - Obama did lose at least a few million white voters. But he gained with the rising Latino and Black populations and held on to his youth and single female vote.

We had hoped the voters in this country would see what we all have been seeing. But there is just not enough of us. Too many people vote based on identity group, Federal Gov handouts, and sheer stupidity.

I don’t blame Romney he was a good candidate and would have made a good prez, far better than the dunce we are stuck with. I don’t even blame Obama he is simply what the majority of the people in this declining country now want.

Sad but true. And denying the truth serves no purpose.


4 posted on 11/21/2012 10:20:45 AM PST by over3Owithabrain
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To: over3Owithabrain
Time for everyone to stop piling on Romney as somehow a lousy candidate. Or blaming fraud or that stupid ORCA program.

Oh, spare us the sanctimony. Romney WAS a lousy candidate. There WAS fraud. And ORCA was a fiasco. One reason Bush won in 2004 is that the GOP had a good GOTV program that year. This was the GOP's election to win and they blew it across the board.

5 posted on 11/21/2012 10:28:09 AM PST by dirtboy
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To: arichtaxpayer
Let me know when he passes Obama.

snort!

6 posted on 11/21/2012 10:28:13 AM PST by joesbucks
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To: Strategerist

You are to be commended for your diligence! In the end, I believe it will probably be that young voter that gave Obama the edge -and, of course the minority groups who exist on entitlements. You know, the ones who think that the world owes them everything and have not experienced struggling and working hard just to see the govt. take the fruits of their labors from them.


7 posted on 11/21/2012 10:28:30 AM PST by CitizenM (Obama - The architect of the decline of the U.S.)
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To: Strategerist

8 posted on 11/21/2012 10:29:30 AM PST by dfwgator
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To: 9YearLurker
Romney’s vote count isn’t enough of an increase to account for the growth in population.  Strategerist touched on this above.  He expects Romney's final totals to match McCain's plus an amount that would compenstate for an increased voter pool due to population expansion.

And it certainly isn’t enough considering that instead of having an unpopular GOP president and a crashing economy, Romney was running against Obama, who jammed Obamacare down our throats and presided over a continuing, disastrous economy.  I don't think anyone has been arguing the opposite of this.

Considering that at least some of those millions fewer who voted for Obama this time must have voted for his opponent, yes, regular base turnout was lower this time around.
  Color me unconvinced that anyone stupid enough to vote for Obama the first time is going to admit to themselves they were wrong, and vote for a Republican the next go-round.  They may stay home because they're unhappy, but not many of the Obama supporters were going to vote for an avowed unapologetic American supporting Capitalist, after voting for the U.S.S.R. like Marxist/Socialist/Communist/Islamic throwback poster child.

9 posted on 11/21/2012 10:29:38 AM PST by DoughtyOne (Hurricane Sandy..., a week later and 48 million Americans still didn't have power.)
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To: over3Owithabrain

Romney’s team ran a poor campaign, and Romney only rose to the occasion during the first debate, when he actually thought he was fighting from behind.

He pathetically pitched for Romneycare throughout the campaign, which effectively took Obamacare off the table.

Sure, he was largely gaffe free after his trip to London, but that’s because he ran such a cautious campaign that he never actually said anything compelling enough to break through the MSM’s Obama boostering.


10 posted on 11/21/2012 10:32:08 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker
Considering that at least some of those millions fewer who voted for Obama this time must have voted for his opponent, yes, regular base turnout was lower this time around.

Evangelicals voted in record numbers for Romney. He got more of their votes than McCain or Bush(2004). He got more white votes than McCain. The missing votes in 2012 were white Obama voters from 2008.

We should look at who they are, why they left Obama and why they didn't vote GOP.

11 posted on 11/21/2012 10:34:53 AM PST by Ken H
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To: Strategerist
Romney Vote Total Passes McCain's

I guess that makes him The Biggest Loser.

12 posted on 11/21/2012 10:38:24 AM PST by Carry_Okie (The Slave Party: advancing indenture since 1787.)
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To: Strategerist

“Mitt Was Less Horrible”.

Fills me with confidence for the future of the GOP.


13 posted on 11/21/2012 10:39:09 AM PST by Colonel_Flagg ("Don't be afraid to see what you see." -- Ronald Reagan)
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To: dirtboy

Yep, it started with a very weak field.

I do think that had Rove taken the $300 and run the GOTV this year, it could well have been a different outcome.


14 posted on 11/21/2012 10:39:17 AM PST by D-fendr (Deus non alligatur sacramentis sed nos alligamur.)
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To: Strategerist

I call B.S. 0bama’s totals are inflated by voter fraud, and as far as Romney’s, you can’t count discarded votes and nullified electronic voting machine votes transferred to 0bama, right?


15 posted on 11/21/2012 10:39:45 AM PST by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America (IMPEACH OBAMA)
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To: Ken H
>> Evangelicals voted in record numbers for Romney. He got more of their votes than McCain or Bush(2004). <<

So much for the MSM propaganda telling us over and over again that "Evangelicals will NEVER vote for a Mormon"

16 posted on 11/21/2012 10:42:23 AM PST by BillyBoy ( Impeach Obama? Yes We Can!)
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To: Strategerist

I say Romney would have won had he picked Rubio as Veep instead of Ryan.


17 posted on 11/21/2012 10:42:35 AM PST by Rennes Templar (Be positive: America is greater than Obama.)
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To: Strategerist

Let us know when Romney vote totals exceed those of Obama in Ohio, Florida, Virginia and New Hampshire.


18 posted on 11/21/2012 10:43:09 AM PST by Uncle Chip
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To: Strategerist

It is a silly effort, Romney’s was a massive, incredible, humiliating loss, against Jimmy Carter’s second term.

The republicans didn’t stand a chance in 2008, but were shoo- ins for 2012.

Romney did worse than McCain/Palin.


19 posted on 11/21/2012 10:44:36 AM PST by ansel12 (The only Senate seat GOP pick up was the Palin endorsed Deb Fischer’s successful run in Nebraska)
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To: Ken H

I think everyone on this board knows former Obama voters who went for Romney this time. Barry’s former voters, who demographically were overwhelmingly white, didn’t all just stay home.


20 posted on 11/21/2012 10:44:36 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: ansel12

Well, they aren’t paying attention, but we are. Is the elephant’s memory suffering from senility?

At any rat, efforts to gin up less-liberal (I won’t necessarily say conservative) voter interest need to be planned now. And the appeals that need to be made are obvious.


21 posted on 11/21/2012 10:50:49 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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To: 9YearLurker

Barack had a narrower margin this time around, helped in part by the disillusioned Obama voter and part by Mitt who actually begged to differ from Barack. Obama would have lost (and Mitt carried) a hypothetical plebiscite of all Americans eligible to vote. The Democrats pumped their demographic segment better than the Republicans did when it came to the polls... rallies at which almost nobody showed were misleading and might have even been feints. Yes, there was undoubtedly cheating and goonish coercion involved. But those should not have been unsuperable barriers.


22 posted on 11/21/2012 10:54:22 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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To: 9YearLurker

Barack had a narrower margin this time around, helped in part by the disillusioned Obama voter and part by Mitt who actually begged to differ from Barack. Obama would have lost (and Mitt carried) a hypothetical plebiscite of all Americans eligible to vote. The Democrats pumped their demographic segment better than the Republicans did when it came to the polls... rallies at which almost nobody showed were misleading and might have even been feints. Yes, there was undoubtedly cheating and goonish coercion involved. But those should not have been INsuperable barriers.


23 posted on 11/21/2012 10:54:37 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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To: HiTech RedNeck

I agree.


24 posted on 11/21/2012 10:56:55 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

I know Obama voters that chose to sit it out which they did by the millions, and I know conservatives who could not vote for Romney.

Romney just doesn’t do well in politics, his 20 year career is one of failure and his legacy will be Romneycare/Obamacare which earned him a place in the history books, and “gay marriage” which he will forever be identified with.


25 posted on 11/21/2012 11:23:32 AM PST by ansel12 (The only Senate seat GOP pick up was the Palin endorsed Deb Fischer’s successful run in Nebraska)
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To: Strategerist

so let’s break your argument down.

let’s see. according to your totals:

you say turnout was up. but the total vote by simple math is still down about 5,000,000 votes on obama’s side. where did those go. sorry doesn’t wash.

you are trying to imply romney was a better or as good a candidate as mccain. so given the stated/basic romney *strategy* of drawing liberal/moderate votes and discounting the missing increase in total number registered voters in the last 4 years, obama down about 5,000,000 from his original total.

so basically romney and mccain are about even, now, you say. thus, simple logic indicates, romney has lost from the mccain total what he gained from the obama. assuming some small percentage of switchers from obama to romney (since, of course, he was such a strong candidate with such a good *strategy*).

no. still don’t buy it. if your argument was supported by an additional 2% over mccains totals, i’d be more inclined to give romney credit. you’d have to break down the vote much further (again even assuming your numbers 2 weeks after the end of the campaign) to pursuade me.

no, as of right now. your numbers change nothing for me. he lost the election. in the midst of an economic depression. his strategy didn’t hold mccain voters and certainly didn’t attract reagan conservatives. his strategy was a loser. he is a loser. mccain was a weak candidate. and romney was still weaker from a conservative stand point. your data just confirms this about romney.


26 posted on 11/21/2012 11:27:39 AM PST by dadfly
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To: dadfly

The GOP gained a bit and the Democrats lost a bit. However that did not quite tip the balance. What is contradictory here? Be sure you aren’t mixing two different systems of accounting.


27 posted on 11/21/2012 11:33:43 AM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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To: 9YearLurker

what is still important in all this, in every type of 2008-2012 & Romney-McCain comparison is not the total national popular vote, but the state-by-state popular votes that gave Obama the Electoral college votes

that is the ONLY place - not the additional popular vote, where either judging Romney’s performance or learning anything else that is useful can come from

it is the only popular vote comparisons I have ANY interest in


28 posted on 11/21/2012 11:34:41 AM PST by Wuli
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To: 9YearLurker

I made a typo in earlier duplicate post

what is still important in all this, in every type of 2008-2012 & Romney-McCain comparison is not the total national popular vote, but the state-by-state popular votes that gave Obama the Electoral college votes

that is the ONLY place - not the national popular vote, where either judging Romney’s performance or learning anything else that is useful can come from

it is the only popular vote comparisons I have ANY interest in


29 posted on 11/21/2012 11:35:36 AM PST by Wuli
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To: 9YearLurker
Whites were 74% of the 131M votes in 2008. They were 72% of the 125M total (so far) in 2012. That's 96.9M in 2008 vs 90M in 2012. They went 55% for McCain and 59% for Romney.

So yes, some switched to Romney, but the bulk of them left Obama and stayed home.

30 posted on 11/21/2012 11:37:02 AM PST by Ken H
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To: ansel12

He’s been running for office since 1994, spending gobs on each campaign, and he won exactly once.

His minions were part of the piling on of Sarah Palin in 2008 in order to clear the path for him in 2012—and I will never forgive him for that.


31 posted on 11/21/2012 11:39:00 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Wuli

The popular vote on the national level is intrinsically linked to the state level results.


32 posted on 11/21/2012 11:39:53 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: Ken H

You can’t correctly make any conclusion from that data as to whether the bulk of the white vote that Obama lost from 2008 to 2012 voted for Romney or not at all.


33 posted on 11/21/2012 11:41:14 AM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: 9YearLurker

Romney is one for the history books.

I look forward to reading the book about how this anti-republican, who was only supporting, fund raising for, and voting democrat from 1989 to 1993, and who gave us Obamacare, and gay marriage, managed to take over the GOP establishment and become it’s nominee against Carter’s second term.


34 posted on 11/21/2012 11:47:17 AM PST by ansel12 (The only Senate seat GOP pick up was the Palin endorsed Deb Fischer’s successful run in Nebraska)
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To: arichtaxpayer

Post. Of. The. Day.


35 posted on 11/21/2012 11:52:28 AM PST by JCBreckenridge (They may take our lives... but they'll never take our FREEDOM!)
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To: 9YearLurker
You can’t correctly make any conclusion from that data as to whether the bulk of the white vote that Obama lost from 2008 to 2012 voted for Romney or not at all.

Explain how the bulk of those 6.9M who left Obama could have voted for Romney, given that the white totals for McCain and Romney were about the same.

36 posted on 11/21/2012 11:55:09 AM PST by Ken H
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To: over3Owithabrain

Time to “bring it all down man”, only this time WE use their OWN tools against them.

We need to go beyond Galt and start becomming “super consumer leeches” while preparing siultaniously for the inevitable accelerated collapse.

Sign up for damn near EVERY government foodstamp and program and help our family and friends do the same damn thing. Let us make Obama OWN the food stamp title.

Use the extra food stamps to stock up on “prepping food” or buyfood for CONSERVATIVE CHARITIES ONLY!!!!

It took lazy ass unmotivated leeches oer 40 to take the system to the edge, let’s see what a bunch of hard working pissed off americans can do it 4 short years!


37 posted on 11/21/2012 11:59:03 AM PST by GraceG
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To: Strategerist
Romney Vote Total Passes McCain's

Big whoop. Who really gives a rat's tookus? Both MODERATES still lost to a radical, Muslim, communist!!!

I don't think that this is a statistic that either loser will be putting on their resume.

38 posted on 11/21/2012 12:01:17 PM PST by DustyMoment (Congress - another name for white collar criminals!!)
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To: Ken H

FRAUD, FRAUD, FRAUD, FRAUD, FRAUD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

THEY STOLE THE DAMMN THING USING VOTING MACHINE FRAUD AND GOOD OLD FFASHIONED VOTE “often” STRATEGIES, AS WELL AS ILLEGAL ALIEN VOTING.....


39 posted on 11/21/2012 12:04:19 PM PST by GraceG
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To: DustyMoment
It makes a difference because many pundits from our side based their election analysis on the erroneous assumption that Romney got significantly fewer votes than McCain. They basically screwed up both the pre-election and post-election analysis.

It's important to know who we should and should not listen to.

40 posted on 11/21/2012 12:11:01 PM PST by Ken H
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To: over3Owithabrain
“Thank you for this. Time for everyone to stop piling on Romney as somehow a lousy candidate. “

No, it's not time to stop such a thing. The story is precisely about those 8 million 2008 Obama voters that abandoned him this time - and decided NOT to vote for Romney. We can safely assume those 8 million were not the hardcore leftists - they'd never abandon a Marxist like Obama. So it has to be those “Independents” that we are relentlessly told we absolutely HAVE to have by all of those alleged Republican Strategists ( you know, like Steve Schmidt - ever count sheer number of losing campaigns this clown has been involved with?). So not only did they not vote Obama again, but evidently they gave Romney a pass too. Or, worse for the GOP, a lot of those 8 million did vote for Romney - and the ones who stayed home were the very social conservatives who are the majority of the TEA Party movement. I suspect it's much more the latter.

Let's be clear about Mitt Romney: nobody really wanted him, as was evidenced in the Primaries. He was the lone wolf to stake out the RINO middle ground: works well with Democrats, lots of big spending programs to his name, no aversion at all to tax increases. He was Democrat Lite, and only the Progressive Republicans in the party and in the Congress loved him. He was one of them. No one in the Republican Base of Conservatives wanted anything to do with him. Romney had to come from behind to win almost all of the primaries in the beginning of the season: Iowa, Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania - and he lost South Carolina outright. He basically took his own money and outspent his foes with ruthless attack ads on them, their character and everything else. Romney wanted the nomination; nobody wanted Romney. We wanted a real conservative. We didn't get one. So we lost. The New York Times did a rare piece of accurate reporting. They discovered this summer that 59% of those who said to them they were going to vote for Romney were doing so only to vote against Obama - none of them were voting FOR Romney. When you have 6 in 10 of your own voters say openly they're aren't voting FOR you but AGAINST the other guy, you can only conclude we did in fact run a lousy candidate.

And the other reason it's important to keep the heat on the Romney's of the world should be patently obvious to the GOP numbskulls: you give us another McCain or Romney type moderate squish - or G-d forbid you even TRY to give us someone else named BUSH - and the base will tell you to F-off and the GOP will win nothing ever again. Romney won over the “Independents” this time by 5 points, and he still came up a loser. Romney basically ran as the non-Obama, and thought that would be enough. But he never told the world why Obama was a disaster. Why his policies are destructive. And moreover, even raise the question of whether it was deliberate by Obama or not. All he said was that Obama was just simply in over his head - a well intended student who just didnt' seem to "get it", according to Romney. So if Romney himself doesn't make the argument of why he is better and what courses he's going to reverse, why should anyone vote for him?

41 posted on 11/21/2012 12:30:23 PM PST by antonico
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To: over3Owithabrain

Obama still got less votes than he did in 2008 which means Romney was not able to convince those voters he was an acceptable alternative


42 posted on 11/21/2012 12:48:28 PM PST by zt1053
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To: arichtaxpayer
Let me know when he passes Obama.

Thanks..I needed a good laugh.

43 posted on 11/21/2012 12:51:41 PM PST by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: Ken H

Easily—it could have been more those among the many more millions of McCain’s white vote who stayed home instead.

It makes no sense to jump to the conclusion that all of McCain’s white voters made it out to vote GOP again, but then the whites who cooled on Obama since 2008 all decided to merely stay home in 2012 instead.


44 posted on 11/21/2012 12:57:57 PM PST by 9YearLurker
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To: HiTech RedNeck

contradictory? if mccain got a bunch more votes than romney then there is no question that romney, a liberal republican, was a disasterous choice and must never be repeated. it’s a damning argument against liberal republicans given two failures in a row.

so of course, the romney liberals and GOPe have to attack that number. now the argument is that romney didn’t really get fewer votes. he’s getting a bit more. actually he was a good candidate, the author argues. the author wants to imply that a conservative candidate would have lost as well. maybe by a far worse margin. that argument, if true, would have the effect of further dividing conservatives, the main goal of statists in both parties.

to argue romney was a better candidate than mccain (the thesis of this article), he would have to demonstrably hold or gain conservative/republican voters (i.e., increase his vote totals significantly over mccain, who was by every measure a weak candidate. hope your not arguing that), while drawing significantly more obama supporters and first time voters.

for me. this data doesn’t yet support their thesis. but it is clearly an argument the republican elite has to make to keep conservatives on their plantation.


45 posted on 11/21/2012 1:00:32 PM PST by dadfly
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To: Rennes Templar
I say Romney would have won had he picked Rubio as Veep instead of Ryan.

I would have expected a Romney/Rubio to win Florida and maybe Colorado, but I don't see that combination turning the tide in Virginia and Ohio.

46 posted on 11/21/2012 1:01:04 PM PST by mac_truck ( Aide toi et dieu t aidera)
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To: dadfly

where are you getting these scores?

Mitt beat John’s turnout. The margin that Barack got was pinched from both sides. Unfortunately it was not pinched ENOUGH.


47 posted on 11/21/2012 1:03:18 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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To: Strategerist

Romney is and will always be a number two.


48 posted on 11/21/2012 1:03:21 PM PST by Sirius Lee (RE SP - Republicans, from Mitt Romney ..to Karl Rove... are said to be concerned she will win.")
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To: HiTech RedNeck

scores, no scores. i’m simply commenting on the argument apologists for romney are trying to make, and the possible reasons the’re trying to make them.

i made my judgement about romney long ago based on his actual positions on the issues.

i’ll wait for all the final numbers and breakdowns before i actually “score” things.

peace to you. moving on.


49 posted on 11/21/2012 1:27:00 PM PST by dadfly
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To: dadfly

let’s find some facts before offering color commentary!


50 posted on 11/21/2012 1:31:04 PM PST by HiTech RedNeck (How long before all this "fairness" kills everybody, even the poor it was supposed to help???)
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