Skip to comments.Vanity - Could Y’all check my math on the number of gun owners as 148 Million?
Posted on 01/22/2013 9:28:07 AM PST by Voice of Reason1
According to Gallup as of October 26, 2011: Forty-seven percent of American adults currently report that they have a gun in their home or elsewhere on their property. And according to the census department their 2012 Population estimate is 313.9 Million. Multiplying that out yields a value of 147.54 Million and rounding up provides a figure of 148 Million gun owners. Now consider a number of factors in that value: 1) The Gallup poll was taken over a year ago way before the Dear Liar was Re-coronated and Firearms sales have soared to unprecedented levels. 2). People sometimes tend to not want to say whether they have guns so that value may be on the low side for even that time period. 3). The census value is estimated, so that may point to the estimate being high. But given those factors in how the final value, is it valid to estimate our numbers this way? Links to the source of the data: According to Gallup as of October 26, 2011 Forty-seven percent of American adults currently report that they have a gun in their home or elsewhere on their property. Self-Reported Gun Ownership in U.S. Is Highest Since 1993 http://www.gallup.com/poll/150353/self-reported-gun-ownership-highest-1993.aspx Population, 2012 estimate 313,914,040 http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/00000.html
We all should have a good valid number that we can use in our fight for freedom.
The poll of 47% was a sampling of the country and we have around 313,914,040 people, so shouldnt 148 Million be a good ball park figure?
If I did, Where did I run off the rails?
I wont be offended if you tell me Im wrong as long as you can detail how I was wrong.
Looking constructive criticism here.
Some stranger comes up and asks me about guns in my home, they're going to get a funny look from me. Surveys rely on participation, and I can assure you that most gun owners I know wouldn't participate.
the Gallup poll says “adults”, which lowers your 313M figure, and also many adults live with other adults, which lowers it even further.
I have never know a gun owner who has just one gun.
I have never know a gun owner who has just one gun.
Not all 313 million are “adults”. The 47% is going to be out of a smaller nubmer than the 313 million.
I suppose that estimate is as good as any. It in now way, however, represents the number of weapons owned totally. Even if only 10% of that number of people owned 10 guns, you’d be nearer to double that many guns. It is perhaps, too, that a smaller percentage, say 5% may even own 20 or more guns......
This will give FBI background numbers if that helps. I saw another site that gave a total number of guns sold. I think the radio said that there were 310 million guns in private hands to that is a double check.
I’m thinking there are many instances of wives that don’t think they own any guns when in fact a lot own at least a half of one.
Should not the number of illegals be subtracted out as well?
Shouldn't felons be subtracted out also?
This one is a big more interesting. Almost 160 million guns sold since 1998. Gun sales in the first 200 years are not known.
It's enough people to stop an invasion by Canada.
I would say you are correct.
But, what the hell, why not just make up numbers, just like the liberals do?
That is why I put those caveats in the estimate the time since the last survey give recent events and the fact that a fair number will simply refuse to answer the question.
That would be my reaction if asked, hence the 47% is most likely lower than it should be.
The question on the estimate would be whether the adult factor in the 313.9 Million is balanced out by the 47% underestimation.
No, horrible math. For starters, you’d be better served by looking at the population of adults (205m) instead of the total population. Then there are going to be myriad factors that will further whittle that number down. The more of those factors you can include the more accurate, albeit smaller, your final 47% is going to be.
I submit, we need to tally the number of first time owners. that is the fertile ground for political recruits.
What is the breakdown in the population by age?
Interesting question the second part of your comment is at least part of the reason the Marxists want to shut down gun shows.
You forget the Double standards they use they can fabricate any factoid they want and itll be spread around the world without question.
Example: The 40% of gun sales not being subjected to background checks its an old stale number based on a small survey, but that doesnt stop them from repeating it ad nauseum in order to further their anti-liberty agenda.
Best estimate is 30-34% of “adults” own guns. This translates to something like 42% of households. The number cited from 2010 is about 70-80 million “gun owners”. This roughly agrees with your poll showing 47% of households. The number may be a little higher, given the run on purchases in the last couple of years.
Before my tragic boating accident I used to have several
Average household size is about 2.6, or so. So divide your 148,000,000 by a number between 1 and 2.6 to account for the average number of gun owners per household. I think 74,000,000 is a plausible lower bound on the number of gun owners, maybe 100,000,000 a plausible upper bound, based on what you told me.
Approximately 25% of the population is under 18 years old.
There are approximately 115 million households in the US.
I have a grandson who only owns one. He might have another by the time he is born in four months.
No offense, But Im trying to base this on actual survey numbers and population data, not on unknown data.
One could easily say that given the sensitive nature of the question, the margin for error on this survey is something like 10-15% - and its biased toward the low side.
That should applied to the total population shouldnt it?
What Good Can a Handgun Do Against An Army?
Especially when they are a conservative husband's beloved liberal spouse.
I can also think of any number of people I know who have a gun, but it’s an old rusty old single-barrel shotgun in the back of the closet that they got from their grandpa and which hasn’t been fired in a good 40 years or it’s a busted pistol in a drawer in the garage that dad got somewhere. They’re a gun-owning household, but I’m not sure how much they really count in your number for any useful purpose.
That makes some excellent points and it highlights why they will want to try incrementally take our guns.
Pat of my point here is that we really need to come up with a true and verifiable number.
The gun grabbers would like to Marginalize those supporting liberty they would like us all to feel alone in enemy territory.
Agreed, and why the hell would they! If they they don't deserve to own any.
What we American men need to do is turn off the sports and become aggressive participants in the "animating contest of freedom".
Persons under 18 years, percent, 2011 23.7%
Subtracting from 100 yield a percentage of 76.3% over the age of 18
313,914,040 (76.3%) = 239,516,415
And 47% of that yields: 112,572,713
I would submit that the other various factors cancel each other out.
Example two people in the same household with a gun could be considered to own said gun co-owners if you will.
As to the type of gun old, new whatever I would say that isnt a factor knowing that the Statists wont be happy until theyve taken them all.
Then there is the underestimation of the survey data from over a year ago given the facts of recent events and the tendency for a fair number to not self-report.
Given all those factors, I would say the figure should be around 114 Million gun owners back when the survey was taken, and around 120 Million now.
How does that sound to Yall?
Point well taken.
Im mainly discussing this because of it political and cultural factors.
The National Marxists are trying to isolate gun owners, trying to make them feel alone in the Dear Liars fantasy world.
They are trying to do that with the NRA using their slimy Alinsky tactics against a small segment of the gun owning population.
Well, I say its time we asset our numbers and our political power and refuse to let them Marginalize those of us who still want to preserve freedom.
It came to me that I had heard that the average gun owner had three guns. This may have come dorm the NRA.
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