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Is the 1950 Korea Mess Relevant to the New Korean Mess?
Dan Miller's Blog ^ | April 6, 2013 | Dan Miller

Posted on 04/06/2013 1:19:10 PM PDT by DanMiller

Probably very little, beyond the differences.

Source: American in North Korea Source: American in North Korea[/caption]

The North Korean invasion of South Korea began on June 25, 1950 when North Korean troops -- many of them battle-hardened veterans of Mao's fights against Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists -- crossed the thirty-eighth parallel to invade South Korea, initially at the Ongjin Peninsula. They met with little resistance as they took Seoul and proceeded largely unimpeded and quickly south, driving the miserably armed and led South Korean (Republic of Korea or ROK) forces before them. Five hundred or so members of the Korea Military Advisory Group (KMAG) were stationed in South Korea, many of the officers on leave elsewhere on the twenty-fifth.

The invasion came as a surprise to General MacArthur, whose duties had little to do with Korea. KMAG was in any event principally a responsibility of the Department of State and General MacArthur had been advised by his chief of intelligence (G2), General Charles Willoughby, that there was no danger of invasion. The principal function of KMAG was to prevent ROK forces under ROK President Syngman Rhee from starting a war by invading north. The ROK forces were a ragged collection of poorly trained and ill equipped troops. The far better trained (although not well equipped) North Korean forces were able to augment their slim supplies of weapons, ammunition, food and other necessities with the stuff left unsecured or discarded by the ROK forces as they fled south. I wrote a lengthy article about the Korean Conflict here. It provides some useful context for the current situation, but not much.

We have had ample warning

The greatest difference between now and June of 1950 insofar as Korea is concerned is that we have had plenty of warning over a period of weeks this time and before that in smaller scale over a period of years. Not even General Willoughby could have ignored such warnings and Dean Acheson probably would not have delivered a speech omitting South Korea from his list of friendly nations in the Asian region to whose defense the United States would come if attacked. By doing that not long before the 1950 conflict began, he helped Kim Il-sung to persuade his Russian patron, Joseph Stalin, that the United States would not defend the country.

The Chinese intervention, not long after General MacArthur's successful Inchon invasion on September 15, 1950, also came as a complete surprise. The Chinese had moved approximately three hundred thousand Chinese troops to, and many of them across, the Yalu River without gaining the attention of the United States. They moved through the snow at night and hid during the day. General MacArthur's General Willoughby did not credit fragmentary reports that they were coming until shortly before they had substantially overwhelmed U.S. and ROK forces and begun to drive them south.

Bluster or serious threats?

North Korean bluster should not be brushed off automatically as substantively meaningless; not even the White House seems to be doing that. According to this article at Politico,

White House press secretary Jay Carney said Friday that the administration wouldn't be surprised if North Korea followed through on threats to launch a missile.

"We've obviously seen the reports that North Korea may be making preparations to launch a missile. We're monitoring this situation closely, and we would not be surprised to see them take such an action," Carney said during a press briefing.

"We have seen them launch missiles in the past and the United Nations Security Council has repeatedly condemned them as violations of the North’s obligations under numerous Security Council resolutions, and it would fit their current pattern of bellicose, unhelpful and unconstructive rhetoric and actions."

North Korea reportedly has moved missile and launch equipment to its east coast, and the regime asked foreign governments Friday to pull their ambassadors from the country, saying it could not guarantee their safety as of April 10, Reuters reports. The North Korean government signaled war is inevitable because of the "increasing threat from the United States" and cited the joint military exercises the United States is conducting with South Korea, according to the Reuters report.

Carney reiterated the United States' call for North Korean leaders to choose peace.

Mr. Carney can call for peace, but unless North Korea substantially changes its conduct it will not come. But what does the North Korean bluster signify? Is Kim Jong-un nuts, out of control, captive to the military, dominated by a regency or what? We (or at least those of us not privy to highly secret information) simply do not know and I doubt that many outside the regency know either. According to this article, quoting Dr. Carafano of the Heritage Foundation,

North Korea has now moved missiles onto launchers and there has been talk that they could technically strike the west coast of the U.S. Asked if that is accurate, Carafano tells Newsmax TV in an exclusive interview: “Absolutely. They haven’t done it but we know they have the technical capability that allows them to do that and they don’t have to reach that far.

“They can reach Guam, which is a major U.S. military base, and we certainly know they can reach Japan, which is an ally and has bases. More importantly: I was in the Army for 25 years, I was stationed in Korea. Much of the South Korean population and the capital is in easy range of North Korean artillery, let alone North Korean missiles.”

North Korea moved those missiles with full knowledge that the United States would observe the actions because “we have satellite imagery overhead covering the entire country” and “they know we’re watching.” But as for what these developments mean, Carafano admits: “I can absolutely tell you with 100 percent confidence that I have no idea what this means. We’ve seen the North Koreans bluster and do nothing, we’ve seen them bluster and do something. We’ve seen them say nothing and do something.

“So we’ve seen every possible combination and we really don’t have good intelligence on how the decision-making inside North Korea works, so we’re all just guessing as to what might possibly happen.” (Emphasis added.)

He may be right in saying that we have seen North Korea "bluster and do something," but I do not recall any prior situation in which bluster at threat levels approaching those at the present was followed by action beyond acceptance of welfare from foreign nations and their nongovernmental organizations (NGOs).

Ever since the death of Kim Jong-il, young Kim's father, I have contended that the Kim Regency, rather than young Kim Jong-un, is in charge and that Kim Jong-un is simply a convenient figurehead for the regency to use (see this article and internal links). However, according to this article at 38 North, generally a quite reliable source,

Kim Jong Un’s efforts to consolidate power continue 15 months after formally assuming the supreme leadership of North Korea. Evidence of his personal stamp can be seen in a series of senior personnel appointments made at the recent plenary session of the Korean Workers’ Party (KWP) Central Committee held on March 31, 2013, and the 7th session of the 12th Supreme People’s Assembly (SPA), the country’s unicameral legislature, on April 1.

The article does indicate that Kim Jong-il's sister and her husband -- at the head of the regency -- have gained significant additional power.

Pak Pong Ju was elected to the Political Bureau replacing Vice Marshal Kim Jong Gak, a member of the military faction. Pak was the Premier (Prime Minister) from September 2003 to April 2007. Pyongyang watchers view him as a major reformer in the DPRK’s political and economic life, particularly since he presided over the implementation of a number of modifications to the country’s economic policies as Premier. In addition, Pak has close political ties to Kim Jong Un’s uncle and aunt—Jang Song Thaek and his wife, Kim Kyong Hui, sister to the late Kim Jong Il.

This time there has been more than ample warning -- perhaps enough to confuse and/or desensitize us.

Shell games provide an analogy. The shells now on the table have beneath them artillery attacks on Seoul, launches of missiles toward Japan, South Korea, Guam and possibly the United States, an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the continental United States using the satellite launched late last year or possibly another to be launched into polar orbit. North Korea may have additional shells with additional threats to put on the table. With only one shell hiding a pea, the dealer usually wins. If a pea were hidden under one and highly lethal things under each of the others, who would be likely to win?

Flash at liberty Flash at liberty

Until infirmities of getting older caught up with me, I enjoyed training horses and devoted a lot of time to it. One day when I was riding our nervous young stallion, Flash, he was startled by an empty cement bag hefted by a wind gust and flying in our direction from the left. He panicked, even though the bag was at least fifty meters away (horses' eyes are mounted at the sides, rather than fronts, of their heads and they have poor depth perception). He shied what seemed at the time to be about half way across the training area to the right, pulling my tailor muscle in the process. I calmed him with soothing sounds and strokes and then rode him back to the stable area, where I dismounted. I would have liked to have begun desensitization immediately but even walking to the car less than five meters away was quite painful. Within a few days, I was able to begin getting him accustomed to flying bags. First, I rubbed his back pleasantly with an empty feed sack. After that had ceased to bother him, I shook it in his face. It took a bit longer, but he settled down. Then I attached the sack to the end of a long flexible stick and after a while I was able to wave it in his general direction while I had him going on a lunge line in a circle around me. Then, I did the same thing with him going around in circles at liberty. The process took several weeks, but it seems to have worked.

There are many differences: Flash trusted me, we don't trust North Korea; there is no apparent reason why we should and there are many good reasons why we shouldn't. Desensitization of Flash was gradual, with escalating provocations; as horrifying as a flying empty paper sack can be to a young horse, they are not usually fatal. Even threats of missile attack on Seoul, taken seriously, would be highly disruptive. The reality would be fatal to many living and working there. The analogy is a far-fetched, but not absolutely dismissible, explanation for the current North Korean bluster: get us and others so accustomed to repeated threats of violence that we cease to worry and don't prepare. Then, attack.

Military feints are similar: give the enemy reasons to think an attack will come at point A and/or B, and then attack at point C, left undefended. That worked well for General MacArthur in his September 15th Inchon invasion. Inchon had seemed a nearly impossible site for a successful amphibious invasion (difficult to predict thirty foot tides, mud flats on both sides of the Flying Fish Channel and an inadequate beachhead at the end) and there were sites that would have been far easier. He made feints at those and the Inchon invasion came as a big surprise to North Korean forces which had left it largely undefended. Luck was also on his side.

North Korea's threats are of deadly serious action. We should be no less serious.

An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack on the Continental United States strikes me as the most likely of all the perhaps improbable scenarios. Here is a link to an article at Arutz Sheva, the thrust of which is that North Korea already has the capability to launch an EMP attack on the continental United States. It contends,

Super-EMP Warhead--Nation Killer

The Obama administration and its allies in the press also want us to believe that North Korea's current "nuclear devices" are not a real threat because of their low explosive yield, only a few kilotons. Supposedly, North Korea after 20 years and three nuclear tests is still struggling to make a crude first generation atomic bomb.

In fact, almost certainly, North Korea now possesses a highly advanced third generation nuclear warhead that could destroy the United States with a single blow.

. . . .

North Korea, during the successful test of its ICBM on December 12, 2012, orbited a satellite weighing 100 kilograms (about 200 pounds). One design of a Super-EMP warhead would be a modified neutron bomb, more accurately an Enhanced Radiation Warhead (ERW) because it produces not only many neutrons but also many gamma rays. As noted earlier, gamma rays cause the EMP effect. One U.S. ERW warhead (the W-82) deployed in NATO during the Cold War weighed, including its heavy casing, less than 50 kilograms. Since the EMP attack entails detonating the warhead at high-altitude, above the atmosphere, the warhead does not even need a heavy re-entry vehicle and heat shield.

North Korea's ICBM does not have to be accurate to make an EMP attack against the United States.

The EMP field is so large that detonating anywhere over the U.S. would have catastrophic consequences. North Korea orbited its satellite around the Earth at an altitude of about 500 kilometers. The trajectory of North Korea's satellite is no accident--they deliberately aimed for and achieved this orbit and altitude, as announced before their launch.

An altitude of 500 kilometers would be ideal for making an EMP attack that places the field over the entire lower 48 United States.

The lengthy article goes into great detail as to its reasoning and may be soundly based. I don't know. Here is a shorter article at International Business Daily that makes essentially the same points. Both are more interesting and explain the possibilities better than do reports in the "legitimate" media. If accurate or even nearly so, the consequences could be devastating. It is not something to be ignored out of hand. We seem unprepared to prevent an EMP attack and the consequences would be calamitous.

There have been official warnings

Whatever the real dangers may (or may not) be, there have been numerous reports, some from credible sources, that North Korea plans to do something very bad, very soon. The Kaesong industrial complex is a joint venture between South and North Korea located not far to the North of the DMZ. North Korea has advised South Korean workers there to leave and many have; more seem likely to leave this weekend.

The North Korean factory park that is the last vestige of cooperation with the South moved closer to paralysis Saturday as nearly 100 South Korean workers went home across a border that Pyongyang has closed in the return direction.

South Korean workers who left the Kaesong industrial complex just north of the heavily armed Demilitarized Zone said their companies were running out of raw materials that ordinarily would be trucked in from the South. South Korea’s Unification Ministry said one of the more than 120 companies operating at the complex shut down Saturday, the fourth to do so since North Korea barred people and cargo from entering on Wednesday.

The Kaesong complex is one of North Korea's few legitimate sources of hard currency.

In addition, foreign embassies in Pyongyang have been warned to evacuate personnel before April 10th, after which North Korea will accept no responsibility for their safety. Pyongyang is thirteen hours ahead of Washington, D.C., so if something unfortunate is scheduled for the tenth in Pyongyang it could happen on the ninth, Eastern Daylight Time.

(CNN) -- Foreign diplomatic missions in North Korea face an ominous decision after Pyongyang said Friday it could not guarantee the safety of embassies and international organizations in the event of armed conflict.

Tensions on the Korean peninsula remain in a heightened state amid new reports that North Korea has prepared missiles for launch, while South Korea has deployed naval destroyers to its coasts.

The British Foreign Office said North Korea told British officials that it would not be able to guarantee the safety of diplomats in the capital if fighting breaks out.

Several diplomatic missions said the North Koreans held a meeting Friday for ambassadors in which they asked whether anyone needed assistance in evacuating their personnel.

"We are consulting international partners about these developments," the British Foreign Office said in a written statement. "No decisions have been taken, and we have no immediate plans to withdraw our embassy."

On the other hand, this article suggests that if the embassy warnings are just part of the North Korean bluster. Perhaps they are, but there seem to be no comparable bases for treating the Kaesong situation as mere bluster.

The call to evacuate foreign embassies appeared to be the latest tactic by North Korea to dial up the rhetoric and win concessions from the U.S. and South Korea. Pyongyang has already threatened a nuclear strike against the U.S., declared it has scrapped the Korean War armistice, vowed to restart a plutonium reactor, and blocked South Koreans from entering the jointly run industrial complex in Kaesong.

"If Pyongyang were getting ready for an armed conflict in earnest, it would hardly have asked the foreign missions to leave the country," said Alexander Zhebin, head of the Korean Studies Center of Russian Academy of Science, in an interview with Interfax. "Moreover, the North Koreans would in that case have used foreign diplomatic missions as a shield, because strikes against Pyongyang, which would have affected embassies as well, would naturally have been condemned and rejected unanimously by Russia, China and other countries."

In North Korea today, thousands took part in rallies against the U.S. and South Korea. Broadcaster KRT aired images of students donning military uniforms, practicing their shooting while speaking against "the warmongers in the White House and Pentagon," according to the Associated Press. State television also showed workers from the Pyongyang 326 Cable Factory supporting their country's nuclear program.

This video shows some of the demonstrations:

[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJ3_cCiaEEI?feature=player_detailpage]

Video link

Conclusions

Notions that a lunatic Kim Jong-un is off on a wild frolic of his own demented and juvenile design strike me as quite wrong; he is probably tightly controlled by a regency. I concur with this statement by the Heritage Foundation's Dr. Carafano: "I can absolutely tell you with 100 percent confidence that I have no idea what this means." I can only hope -- with little if any reason for doing so -- that our Government's foreign affairs and military experts have solid and accurate information to rely upon for what they have been doing and for their contingency planning. I fear, however, that just as our Middle East and other foreign policies, actions and inactions have been driven far more by ideology -- and President Obama's supreme but unwarranted confidence in his own abilities -- than by reality, the same is happening and will continue to happen as the present Korean situation unfolds.


TOPICS: Government; History; Military/Veterans
KEYWORDS: bluster; emp; kim; korea
It's a mess and our brilliant Dear Leader Obama will probably make it worse.
1 posted on 04/06/2013 1:19:10 PM PDT by DanMiller
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To: DanMiller
~ Well, It's A Little Bit Different These Days ~

 photo kim20jong20un20memes_zps60502787.png

2 posted on 04/06/2013 1:27:38 PM PDT by SkyDancer (Live your life in such a way that the Westboro church will want to picket your funeral.)
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To: DanMiller
It's a different world than 1950 but the potential for the government to screw up is unchanging. After four years of dereliction of duty by The Regime, Intel and the Defense Forces' levels of preparedness are undoubtedly at a low ebb.
3 posted on 04/06/2013 1:28:51 PM PDT by hinckley buzzard
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To: DanMiller
What you need to do is read a couple of books on Korean history, then work your way through Queen Seondeok ~ dramatization of Korea's first queen.

Not much relevant to modern times but this was the most popular TV show going in S Korea ~ it really, really gets to Koreans.

Lots of swordchopping. BTW, it focuses on the 7th century so most of it is made up ~ but the writer's drag in all the current fears and aspirations of what does seem to still be a divided country.

4 posted on 04/06/2013 1:32:16 PM PDT by muawiyah
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To: DanMiller

If the west left the far east alone in the 1800’s and not practice gunboat trade policy and opium trade, Qing Dynasty of China would not have fallen and its leaders disgraced amongst the Chinese to they point the want to modernize as fast as possible to meet the Western threats. Chinese modernity would not involve Chinese reformers tinkering with facism and communism. With Qing weaken and Japan forced to open to trade, Japan would not have modernized and forcibly colonize Korea (who no longer can be protected by Qing China). Western greed and bullying would not have unhinged the far east nations who may be backwards but wanted to be left alone. Consequences is China became Communist, Japan became militaristic till end of WW2, Korea is divided with Communist holding the north and now desperate to survive pursue nukes and nuclear blackmail. If the West had followed the philosophy of our founding fathers (trade not empire building) and Christian values (not Darwinism which argues it is natural for the strong to bully the weak, and draw generalities of which race is weak and inferior to whites) many of the problems we face today may not occur.


5 posted on 04/06/2013 1:38:45 PM PDT by Fee (9/11 first shaking; 2008 finance collapse second shaking; 2015 ????)
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To: DanMiller
This is about one thing: To get a military Tech alliance between the US and China. China will not allow NorKo to close West Coats ports. North Korean Nuclear Threat Kabuki Theater
6 posted on 04/06/2013 1:48:09 PM PDT by NoLibZone (I predict the exact same Freepers will hate the GOP Candidate for: 2016,2020,2024,2028, 2032.)
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To: DanMiller

Wouldn’t it also be as likely that North Korea would send a nuclear device in a shipping container hidden in other cargo or on a ship equipped with a short range launch system where they would have greater assurance of a successful attack?


7 posted on 04/06/2013 1:50:16 PM PDT by Truth29
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To: DanMiller
I have a bad feeling about this situation. He's now backed himself into a deep corner, and it seems that he's going to do "something". I don't know if China can contain him. If they don't, they lose trillions of US$ from us.

That EMP Scenario worries the crap out of me. I'm well-prepped for 1-2yrs, but that event will take us, Canada and Mexico back to the mid-1700s.

Leave it to ☭scumbag to make it even worse.

8 posted on 04/06/2013 1:56:15 PM PDT by carriage_hill (The most insidious power the news media has, is the power to ignore.)
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To: DanMiller

1950’s mess was a UN mission

Now we seem to be alone.


9 posted on 04/06/2013 1:58:07 PM PDT by stylin19a (obama - Fredo smart)
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To: Truth29
Wouldn’t it also be as likely that North Korea would send a nuclear device in a shipping container hidden in other cargo or on a ship equipped with a short range launch system where they would have greater assurance of a successful attack?

There many possibilities and those are certainly among them. While such an attack localized at a port on the East or West coast would be very bad, an EMP attack affecting all of CONUS would be far worse and far more difficult to recover from. None of The Above would, obviously, be best. What, however, can and will our own Dear Leader do to increase the probabilities of None of the Above?

10 posted on 04/06/2013 1:59:04 PM PDT by DanMiller (Dan Miller)
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To: DanMiller
Well, Obama could do a lot, but I would be worried that he would be conflicted about defending the US or want his idea of a manageable disaster to complete his transformation of the US into Obamanation.
11 posted on 04/06/2013 2:03:15 PM PDT by Truth29
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To: DanMiller

I see the next “Stimulus” program taking shape.

“EMP Hardening.”

That should be good for $200 billion.

Lots of jobs Americans won’t do, too, so the new immigration bill and the extra 1 million work visas will arrive just in time.


12 posted on 04/06/2013 2:11:24 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: Fee

Could, shoulda, woulda. The proposition that if our predecessors had made better decisions without benefit of the historical hindsight we have is specious.

If only they had thought of the future instead of the now.

And what does that say about the current powers that be, spending future generations into debt slavery to buy votes today?

Every generation inherits a mess from the previous generations and leaves one for the next. Welcome to life on Planet Earth.


13 posted on 04/06/2013 2:13:28 PM PDT by Valpal1
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To: DanMiller

As I recall, an important US official stated that Korea was not inside the US defense sphere; we weren’t interested in it. That is what provoked the invasion. I think it was the secretary of defense.

This is what bothers me about having incompetent people at any level of government. One poorly chosen statement can cost thousands of lives. There should be a special school for officials. It should teach them to never speak to the press, period. Only official, sanctioned sources should ever speak to the press.


14 posted on 04/06/2013 2:17:54 PM PDT by Gen.Blather
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To: stylin19a
1950’s mess was a UN mission.

It was that, although the United States and the ROK did most of the heavy lifting and General MacArthur was the Supreme Commander -- although he spent most of his time in Tokyo enjoying the comforts he had as the "Emperor of Japan" and rarely visited Korea more than for a few hours.

It became, at least cosmetically, a UN mission because Russia -- in pursuit of its efforts to have mainland China seated in place of Taiwan -- was boycotting the UN and hence did not veto the Security Council resolution requesting help in Korea from member states.

General MacArthur, like all the rest of us, was flawed. At seventy and the most senior of all serving U.S. officers of flag rank, he often ignored the "advice" coming from his juniors on the Joint Chiefs of Staff as well as occasionally from President Truman. He referred to General Eisenhower as the "best clerk I ever had." He did seem to think highly of General Ridgeway, who ultimately replaced him.

However, General MacArthur was in many respects a military genius as his Inchon invasion demonstrated. He also recognized the threats of Mainland China and Russia. He was largely responsible for the absence of Russia from Japan as he managed its very successful rehabilitation -- compare the position of Russia in Europe at the same time.

15 posted on 04/06/2013 2:29:19 PM PDT by DanMiller (Dan Miller)
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To: Gen.Blather
As I recall, an important US official stated that Korea was not inside the US defense sphere; we weren’t interested in it. That is what provoked the invasion. I think it was the secretary of defense.

It was Dean Acheson and he was the Secretary of State.

16 posted on 04/06/2013 2:45:32 PM PDT by DanMiller (Dan Miller)
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To: DanMiller

Maybe the Senkaku islands have something to do with this?


17 posted on 04/08/2013 5:14:20 PM PDT by mulder1 ("The past is prologue.")
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To: mulder1
Maybe the Senkaku islands have something to do with this?

The thought had occurred to me that the Korea mess could be a useful diversion to take attention away from China's adventures in the South China Sea. Might that possibility encourage China at the last moment to march in and stomp on the fingers of the Kim Regime as it is about to push the nuke button? China would certainly get praise internationally for doing so, and it seems possible. However, it's still just a poorly formed thought and I don't know what might be in the heads of any of them.

I am concerned that the powers-that-be in the United States may not have substantially more hard information, and that's very worrisome.

18 posted on 04/08/2013 5:25:50 PM PDT by DanMiller (Dan Miller)
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To: DanMiller

Thanks for the feedback and thoughtfull analysis. I still remember the Clancy novel involving the Spratlys.


19 posted on 04/08/2013 5:29:57 PM PDT by mulder1 ("The past is prologue.")
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To: mulder1
Thank you!

There is much truth in some historical fiction. Have you read W.E.B. Griffin's novels on WWII and the Korean Conflict? He is getting on in years and his later novels don't seem as good. However, the WWII and Korean Conflict novels present many real characters -- General MacArthur, his G2, General Willoughby and many others -- as other non-fiction reading has suggested to me that they were.

Griffin spiced his novels up with fictitious characters and with real characters disguised as fictitious characters -- he turned war correspondent Maggie Higgins, for example, into Jeanette Priestly, also of the Chicago Tribune -- but their interactions with the real people involved seem to have been quite in character and realistic.

I've been thinking about writing an article about the intersections of history and historical fiction but haven't yet got around to it.

20 posted on 04/08/2013 6:01:36 PM PDT by DanMiller (Dan Miller)
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To: DanMiller
Not even General Willoughby could have ignored such warnings

Don't be too sure. Willoughby's ability to ignore the blindingly obvious was truly extraordinary.

21 posted on 04/08/2013 6:04:59 PM PDT by Harmless Teddy Bear (Promotional Fee Paid for by "Ouchies" The Sharp, Prickly Toy You Bathe With!)
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