Posted on 05/31/2013 12:17:57 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
one of the oldest Wall street sayings- Sell in May and go away.
Really could be that simple.
ping
Sounds like a good idea. The markets are destined to fall hard.
with the US producing almost 1 million barrels of oil more annually for the last 3 years and this year being the same AND future years through 2017 projected to be the same—its unlikely that any correction will be much more than short lived and technical.
there could be some great macro events of course that are currently unaccounted for. but currently the move out financials for soros is likely just rotational.
stocks are bid up by the Federal Reserve printing press. Some experts believe the Fed either can’t, or won’t, keep undermining the dollar this way.... (we will see, I happen to think they can’t stop now....)
real estate depends on location, different markets have different factors at work. California’s leading markets are approximately 75% driven now by foreign/immigrant (mostly Communist Chinese) money (often these folks arrive and offer all-cash). Another 10% or so of purchases are by a few “vulture investment firms” trying to make single family housing into profitable rental properties (a couple of the larger firms have recently pulled out, saying the maintenance and operating costs are far higher then they envisioned...)
But some other realty markets have some more “regular American working people” type buyers. (But still (in most areas) at a low volume and price level.)
The realty markets that are showing the big results are few and the statistics appear heavily influenced or skewed by the above special factors (which are inherently risky sources of demand). Where price levels are so much higher than what “normal American workers” can afford, the realty markets are all that much riskier, and more capable of suffering major price drops. Some of the smart investors have been evaluating these risks and deciding to put their money into other things instead.
Having said all that, I am one that still believes America can recover. But it will take an almost total reversal of all the destructive policies and unneeded or harmful interferences in the markets... being inflicted on us from WashDC these days. NO sane investor will risk major capital sums in markets subject to almost-insane interferences or attempted manipulations by misguided (or deliberately destructive) politicians.
I liquidated (thru my wealth mgr) all my IRA mutual funds and stock, and am in a 100% cash position now, as of 3 weeks ago. He and I both feel the market bubble is going to “correct” again; just “when” is the question. We did the same thing in ‘07, just ~6mos before the ‘08 crash. Gut feeling and a hunch.
The productive capability of the US is being hollowed up and replaced with printed money. It’s like a heroin high, great when the junk is floating through your brain, but when it stops ...
I don’t know if oil will do enough to replace it.
Interesting proposition in a post last week.
The dollar will both deflate and inflate.
The “cyberdollars” will inflate infinitely, as in, disappear,
whilst the actual currency that you hold in your hand will deflate and become 100 times face value due to its relative scarcity.
Actual physical money is about 3% of the total money supply.
The trouble is that “the glass” is full of fractures, but which fracture will be the one that causes the glass to collapse?
Personally, I don’t think it will be the stock market, because it has been both invisibly and blatantly tampered with to prevent a crash for years now. “Invisibly” implies the hand of the FED or Treasury. “Blatantly” means that if you have a few billion dollars that you can use invisibly, without worrying about making a profit, you control the market.
Likely the bond market has also been deeply manipulated. So where else do you look?
Likely overseas. The FED and the Treasury cannot stop other countries from the big slip and fall.
I wonder how we know Soros’ stock portfolio?
Hacked into Baraq's email?
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"Sell in May" is probably a big factor but there's also likely concerns about the quality of earnings. Corporate earnings have, in recent years, been levitated mainly by cost cutting measures (e.g., layoffs and fat cutting). But diminishing returns have set in and companies are running out of further cost reduction options. So real earnings are what's needed now but the economy is still incredibly weak. Earnings simply won't rise much until that the economy gets on stronger footing.
And who believes this is going to happen anytime soon with this administration's anti-business policies and the looming impact of Obamacare?
Smart money is very aware of all this and is taking money off the table.
But some other realty markets have some more “regular American working people” type buyers.
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This type of buyer is a disappearing breed. “American worker” is almost an oxymoron. Who wants to work anymore when there are an abundance of financial entitlements and welfare programs available? My next door neighbor decided to go on the dole about a year ago and appears to be enjoying the ride.
The productive capability of the US is being hollowed up and replaced with printed money.
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Printed Prosperity. Money for nothin. LOL
You just know this won’t have a happy ending. Just another financial bubble in the making.
taking welfare and freebies and sitting on your ass watching Oprah and socializing on your Obammyphone (when he’s not sending you messages how to vote, or how many times to vote, or how to think, or how to “organize your community”).... this is all ... the wave of the future....
(albeit that wave will crash up against the rocks of reality soon enough....)
“Blatantly” means that if you have a few billion dollars that you can use invisibly, without worrying about making a profit, you control the market.
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IMHO there is, unquestionably, a Fed controlled Plunge Protection Team (i.e., Working Group on Financial Markets) that manages the markets. It’s an invisibile hand all right. And you’re absolutely right: if you have billions of dollars at your disposal you can move the market in any direction, and will never sustain a loss. You control it. Totally.
The market should really be called the Federal Reserve Stock Exchange.
Here’s a ten year chart of the dollar. Notice how its been going mostly sideways since 2008.
http://bit.ly/K1ENOe
My wag is that because of rising US oil production —the break out will be to the upside. (Why? even incompetently run countries like brazil have strong currencies because they are oil independent.)
but we’ll see.
you too have to submit to the same discipline of the data.
if the dollar breaks out to the downside then your thesis is right. fiat money kills the value of the dollar
if the dollar breaks out to the upside —then oil, the improved balance of payments and 50-100 trillion dollars worth of new oil deposits in the USA backing the dollar...trumps fiat money.
So you’re saying watch the obamaites (didn’t GE recently pick up some oil production?) to see if they throw in the towel and finally go into oil (because of their basic greed) to know the outcome of the dollar? XL Pipeline, etc?
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