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Can I have some crowd-sourcing help here about gun-safety in the home?
Bookwormroom.com ^ | 5-29-2014 | Bookworm

Posted on 05/29/2014 6:23:56 PM PDT by servo1969

I’m in a very polite discussion with someone about gun safety. I’ve managed to use data to convince this person that America is not home to exceptional gun rampages, that they occur in other countries, and that those denied guns go on rampages with other things. I’ve also shown that gun control laws in England have seen increased violent crime in, while gun control laws in Australia did nothing to affect gun crime statistics, which were dropping anyway. The next line of discussion is whether guns in the home are so dangerous to family members that they have no merit for self-defense purposes.

The obvious argument is that you cannot insulate yourself entirely from risk. If you banish guns, you get crime; you have guns, you get self-defense with an increased risk to family. But what I’m wondering about is the credibility of the data she politely offered. Do any of you know whether the following is correct and, if it’s not, do you know what accurate information is about gun-safety in the home. (And I wonder, off hand, whether it’s greater or less than pool safety, or falling out of window safety, or eating poison safety, or getting beaten to death safety, etc.).

This, from a “firearms tutorial” out of Utah:

"The issue of “home defense” or protection against intruders or assailants may well be misrepresented. A study of 626 shootings in or around a residence in three U.S. cities revealed that, for every time a gun in the home was used in a self-defense or legally justifiable shooting, there were four unintentional shootings, seven criminal assaults or homicides, and 11 attempted or completed suicides (Kellermann et al, 1998). Over 50% of all households in the U.S. admit to having firearms (Nelson et al, 1987). In another study, regardless of storage practice, type of gun, or number of firearms in the home, having a gun in the home was associated with an increased risk of firearm homicide and suicide in the home (Dahlberg, Ikeda and Kresnow, 2004). Persons who own a gun and who engage in abuse of intimate partners such as a spouse are more likely to use a gun to threaten their intimate partner. (Rothman et al, 2005). Individuals in possession of a gun at the time of an assault are 4.46 times more likely to be shot in the assault than persons not in possession (Branas et al, 2009). It would appear that, rather than being used for defense, most of these weapons inflict injuries on the owners and their families."

and this, from the Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence:

"Of the 13,636 Americans who were murdered in 2009, only 215 were killed by firearms (165 by handguns) in homicides by private citizens that law enforcement determined were justifiable."


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Military/Veterans; Society; Sports
KEYWORDS: banglist; guncontrol; safety; secondamendment
I will let Book know that I have cross-posted her request here so it is likely she will read your comments. Any help will be greatly appreciated.
1 posted on 05/29/2014 6:23:56 PM PDT by servo1969
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To: marktwain
Your expertise is needed here.

/johnny

2 posted on 05/29/2014 6:26:16 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: servo1969

Many gun rampages occurred in Europe from 1939-1945. After that, Eastern Europe primarily.


3 posted on 05/29/2014 6:34:24 PM PDT by Darteaus94025 (Can't have a Liberal without a Lie)
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To: servo1969
One of the cliche's is that you are more likely to be killed with or commit suicide with a gun in the home, but that does not take into account the fact that (according to DOJ crime statistics) guns are used by ordinary citizens 2.5 million times per year to stop crimes like rape, robbery, carjacking and home-invasion, 99% of the time without a shot being fired.

http://gunfacts.info/

4 posted on 05/29/2014 6:40:52 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: servo1969

The definitive work: “More Guns=Less Crime” by John Lott. It ended the debate for 35 years. Now, with most people ignorant of this work, the debate is starting again.

The strength of the work revolves around analyzing THE SAME POPULATIONS prior to and after gun control.


5 posted on 05/29/2014 6:42:31 PM PDT by Darteaus94025 (Can't have a Liberal without a Lie)
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To: servo1969

there is a high correlation of suicide by firearm and the presence of a firearm.

isn’t science great? anyone can do it really.


6 posted on 05/29/2014 6:45:35 PM PDT by beebuster2000
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To: beebuster2000

IOW people that don’t have guns rarely shoot themselves?

Wow..........


7 posted on 05/29/2014 6:46:34 PM PDT by nascarnation (Toxic Baraq Syndrome: hopefully infecting a Dem candidate near you)
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To: servo1969
"The issue of “home defense” or protection against intruders or assailants may well be misrepresented. A study of 626 shootings in or around a residence in three U.S. cities revealed that, for every time a gun in the home was used in a self-defense or legally justifiable shooting, there were four unintentional shootings,

Some people believe that whipping up a credit card to pay for the gun is all that it takes to be an expert. It's a matter of education, and the USA is not necessarily a shining beacon in this department. For comparison, USSR had a 100% rifle training of high school students (both .22LR and 7.62x39,) and universities had pistol training as well. Do we have the same in the USA? (a rhetorical question.)

seven criminal assaults or homicides

Cause and effect are backward here. People own guns because criminals are out there. If there are no criminals, some people wouldn't own guns (and some still would own them for sporting purposes.)

and 11 attempted or completed suicides (Kellermann et al, 1998)

What suicides have to do with anything? In Japan teenagers jump from roofs of buildings. Is it any better? Suicides are caused by problems; very few healthy, sane people see a gun and suddenly decide to shoot themselves with it. Life is finite, and not every natural way to die is nice and pleasant. A free man has a right to depart this world on his own terms.

having a gun in the home was associated with an increased risk of firearm homicide and suicide in the home

Same as above. People who live in bad neighborhoods buy guns. Old people who are looking at their cancer treatment bills buy guns. It's not a usable metric.

Persons who own a gun and who engage in abuse of intimate partners such as a spouse are more likely to use a gun to threaten their intimate partner.

Such people will use everything at their disposal to threaten or hurt others. Is it better if such abuser uses a knife?

Individuals in possession of a gun at the time of an assault are 4.46 times more likely to be shot in the assault than persons not in possession

This is not very informative unless we know the overall survival rate. For example:

One hundred assaults were taken as a data set. Fifty victims had a gun, and fifty other victims did not have it. Out of the fifty victims without a gun only one was shot; the rest were beaten to death. Out of the fifty victims with a gun five were shot; the rest shot the criminals and were unharmed.

You see the importance of complete data? In my example (which contains just imaginary source numbers) not having a gun is a certain death, and having a gun is a 90% chance of survival; however indeed in this example if you own a gun you are 5 times more likely to get shot. This is an example of what statistics is capable of.

8 posted on 05/29/2014 6:46:55 PM PDT by Greysard
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To: nascarnation
IOW people that don’t have guns rarely shoot themselves? Wow..........

See how easy science is? now you are doing it too !!

9 posted on 05/29/2014 6:49:43 PM PDT by beebuster2000
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To: servo1969

“Of the 13,636 Americans who were murdered in 2009,”


Murdered how? These figures often include irrelevant categories to inflate the stats. Those killed with rifles, including semi-automatic versions of assault rifles are less than a thousand.

“A study of 626 shootings in or around a residence in three U.S. cities revealed that, for every time a gun in the home was used in a self-defense or legally justifiable shooting, there were four unintentional shootings, seven criminal assaults or homicides, and 11 attempted or completed suicides.”


All kinds of logical holes in this statement, including not clarifying whether the guns involved were from the home in question. Using data from cities, and especially particular cities reflects a lot more than simple gun ownership. Kellerman studies have a history of skewed definitions, such as requiring the self defense gun-owner to not only have stopped a crime, but to have successfully shot and *killed* the attacker, yielding extremely misleading results.

Most confrontations with attackers are ended at the sight of a gun, even with mass shooters - though in that case they tend to either run off and hide, or to off themselves.

In regard accidents, be careful with stats involving children...which often include those up to their mid twenties, and teens including 18-19 year olds involved in gang shootings.


10 posted on 05/29/2014 6:57:09 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: servo1969

11 posted on 05/29/2014 7:05:13 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: servo1969

12 posted on 05/29/2014 7:05:44 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum ("The more numerous the laws, the more corrupt the government." --Tacitus)
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To: servo1969

http://hsx.sagepub.com/content/5/1/64.short

Abstract

Using a case-control design comparing homicide victims with matched nonvictims, Kellermann et al. (1993) concluded that keeping a gun in one’s home increased the risk of being murdered by a factor of 2.7. The authors’ underlying assumption was that a significant elevation in homicide risk derived from the risk of being murdered with a gun kept in the victim’s home. This article shows that homicides are rarely committed with guns belonging to members of the victim’s home and that such killings could be responsible for no more than a 2.4% increase in the relative risk of being murdered. Guns in one’s own home have little to do with homicide risk. Scholars need to attend more closely to the mechanisms by which an alleged causal effect is supposed to operate and to consider their plausibility before concluding that an association reflects a causal effect.


13 posted on 05/29/2014 7:07:36 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: servo1969
BAN THE VISTA BRIDGE!!! FENCE ALL HIGH POINTS!!!

and the corollary, BAN ALL KNIVES, CARS, BASEBALL BATS, & on & on & on...

Ann Coulter had some interesting things to say today on the 'Virgin Killer' re 'mental health' & gun violence, particularly how libs are keen to say "we can't stigmatize the mentally ill" yet the other side of their mouth is slobbering about new laws that control normal people.

In addition, the moron Roger wrote in his '137-page rant' how he considered going to a large gathering to kill people but made other plans as he lucidly postulated that he was more likely to be killed by police due to the security presence.

IMHO, it's not a fair comparison to lump the idiot Elliot Roger into gun violence as he was almost equally deadly with both the knife and his car.

If there were no guns, crazy-person (he was a schizo that wasn't taking his meds) Elliot Roger would have just armed himself with something else.

If there were no guns, knives, swords, explosives or "purpose-built weapons" of any type in some utopia, humans would still use other objects for their mayhem. The big difference is "the equalizer".

In the case of the US, it cannot be denied that the statistics show "the equalizer" is the privately-held/owned/carried gun. Not the police, not gun bans. Wherever gun laws have resulted in increased per-capita gun possession/carrying by lawful citizens reduced violent crime rates follow.

Check out this Harvard study if you missed it...

14 posted on 05/29/2014 7:08:12 PM PDT by logi_cal869
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To: servo1969
Kellerman has been pretty widely discredited because he is comparing apples to muskrats.

Certainly homeowners do not wish to be killed. Just as certainly, it is usually a better outcome if they can prevent crime *without* killing someone.

Therefore to only look at justified homicides in comparison to murders and suicides is to severely skew the data. Similarily Kellerman, as I recall, considers it a "death in the home" if the person killed is a domestic abuser attempting to kill the defending partner.

The best sources that we have indicate that there are somewhere between 500,000 to 3,000,000 defensive uses of firearms a year in the United States. From the CDC study:

Defensive use of guns by crime victims is a common occurrence, although the exact number remains disputed (Cook and Ludwig, 1996; Kleck, 2001a). Almost all national survey estimates indicate that defen- sive gun uses by victims are at least as common as offensive uses by criminals, with estimates of annual uses ranging from about 500,000 to more than 3 million (Kleck, 2001a), in the context of about 300,000 vio- lent crimes involving firearms in 2008 (BJS, 2010). On the other hand, some scholars point to a radically lower estimate of only 108,000 annual defensive uses based on the National Crime Victimization Survey (Cook et al., 1997). The variation in these numbers remains a controversy in the field. The estimate of 3 million defensive uses per year is based on an extrapolation from a small number of responses taken from more than 19 national surveys. The former estimate of 108,000 is difficult to interpret because respondents were not asked specifically about defensive gun use.

Link to article about the study

Gary Kleck shows that between 5.6 and 13% of reported homicides are justifiable homicides by citizens who are not police. The rarest, but most serious form of self-defense with a gun is a defensive killing. The FBI does not publish statistics on self-defense killings per se, but it did start publishing counts of civilian justifiable homicides gathered through their Supplementary Homicides Reports program in their 1991 issue. For a variety of reasons, the FBI counts of civilian justifiable homicides represent only a minority of all civilian legal defensive homicides.

I have not found any work that refutes these findings. Those who cling to the Progressive Elite model simply state the FBI numbers as fact.

Here is an article that explains why the FBI UCR numbers are so low on justified homicides:

Two Models of Modern Murder

15 posted on 05/29/2014 7:17:11 PM PDT by marktwain (The old media must die for the Republic to live. Long live the new media!)
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To: servo1969

http://www2.fbi.gov/ucr/cius2009/offenses/expanded_information/homicide.html

“Of the 13,636 murder victims in 2009 for which supplemental data were received, most (77.0 percent) were male. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 1.)”

“Of the homicides for which the FBI received weapons data, most (71.8 percent) involved the use of firearms. Handguns comprised 70.5 percent of all firearms used in murders and nonnegligent manslaughters in 2009. (Based on Expanded Homicide Data Table 8.)”

“Law enforcement reported 667 justifiable homicides in 2009. Of those, law enforcement officers justifiably killed 406 felons, and private citizens justifiably killed 261 people during the commission of a crime. (See Expanded Homicide Data Tables 14 and 15.)”

Despite the below, for “justifiable homicides” , understand that many times that they are determined to likely be, they are not officially reported as such. This varies from district to district and state to state. Also note the limited definitions.


“Justifiable homicide — Certain willful killings must be reported as justifiable or excusable. In the UCR Program, justifiable homicide is defined as and limited to:

The killing of a felon by a peace officer in the line of duty.
The killing of a felon, during the commission of a felony, by a private citizen.
Because these killings are determined through law enforcement investigation to be justifiable, they are tabulated separately from murder and nonnegligent manslaughter. Justifiable homicide information is included in this section and in Expanded Homicide Data Table 14, “Justifiable Homicide, by Weapon, Law Enforcement, 2005–2009” and Expanded Homicide Data Table 15, “Justifiable Homicide, by Weapon, Private Citizen, 2005–2009.”


16 posted on 05/29/2014 7:17:56 PM PDT by lepton ("It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of a thing he was never reasoned into"--Jonathan Swift)
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To: servo1969
To prove that concealed handguns are dangerous, the Violence Policy Center cooks the books.

One has to note that there are over 11 million concealed-handgun permits in the U.S. right now. With an annual number of deaths of 90, that means 0.00083 percent of concealed-carry permit holders were responsible for a shooting death each year. Removing suicides from the total reduces the rate even more, to 0.00058 percent.

17 posted on 05/29/2014 7:18:00 PM PDT by smokingfrog ( sleep with one eye open (<o> ---)
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To: servo1969
Regarding murder in general.. if you don't count the U. S. murders committed by blacks and Hispanics, we have the lowest murder rate per capita of any nation in modern history.
18 posted on 05/29/2014 7:40:28 PM PDT by ArtDodger
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To: servo1969

kellerman is a big anti, who made a career of doing research papers that show firearms are bad.

however, a few simple things will show that a firearm does not cause mayhem, death and destruction.

first, nics checks background checks done before a firearm is sold, to make ensure a criminal (felon) is not sold a firearm. some states have their own sytems, so their numbers will not show up in an nics check. also, a nics check may not necessarily represent a new firearm sale, it could be for a used firearm, or even some are things as government/police employment checks, I have heard.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nics/reports/1998_2014_monthly_yearly_totals-040514.pdf
in 2013, 21 Million nics checks were done. if you say only 1/3 were new firearms, that is 7 million more firearms on the streets in 1 year.

From 2004-2113, 137,148,000 (roughly) nics checks were done. if 1/3 were new firearms, that is 45,259,000 new firearms “on the streets”.

From the fbi uniform crime report summary for 2012, on murder, we have

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/violent-crime/murder

“In 2012, an estimated 14,827 persons were murdered in the United States. This was a 1.1 percent increase from the 2011 estimate, but a 9.9 percent decrease from the 2008 figure, and a 10.3 percent drop from the number in 2003.”

45 million more guns, and less murders...

also, the definition of children applies to teens, up to age 18 or 19,

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_2_murder_victims_by_age_sex_and_race_2012.xls

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_9_murder_victims_by_age_by_weapon_2012.xls

of 1101 victims under age 18, 563 were killed by firearms. 193 were beat to death by hands, feet, etc.

note here,
http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_13_murder_circumstances_by_sex_of_victim_2012.xls

that 720 were involved in juvenile gang killings.

the myth of if you have a firearm, you will be morelikely killed by a family member or someone you know - definition of someone you know is an acquaintance, like, you know that kid that always hangs around the corner, acquainted with, as opposed to stranger.

see this table relationship between offender and victim.

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_10_murder_circumstances_by_relationship_2012.xls

of 12765 murders, 749 were by blood/family relations, 2714 acquaitances, 1004 by friend/significant other. 1557 complete stranger, 5757 unknown.

adding acquaitance significantly makes it seem more intimate, even if it was the drug dealer down the street

facts and statistics make it hard to argue, but for anti firearms people, “feelings” trump all sense or logic


19 posted on 05/29/2014 8:07:45 PM PDT by backpacker_c
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To: backpacker_c

edit note - the last part about relationship between murder victim and offender was off - it isn’t broken down by firearms only. you have to also look at this table

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/offenses-known-to-law-enforcement/expanded-homicide/expanded_homicide_data_table_11_murder_circumstances_by_weapon_2012.xls

to get an idea of the percentage of each circumstance was related to firearms


20 posted on 05/29/2014 9:05:35 PM PDT by backpacker_c
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To: All

The Kellerman “study” has been debunked numerous times.

Start with the basics; John Lott, Gary Kleck, or even the CDC report Obama just had done after Sandy Hook but buried it along with the media after the results didn’t match the narrative.


21 posted on 05/29/2014 11:34:18 PM PDT by Rodney Dangerfield (Has any President in history sunk to such a level of self-flattery & validation-seeking?)
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To: servo1969

Don’t have a clue. My own experience is that I grew up in a home with guns and a Dad who taught us about gun safety and responsibility. I’m 62 yrs old and never had a mishap in the home and neither did my Dad before he and Mom hooked up. My Uncle has had guns since the mid ‘50s and he hasn’t had any problems. I think, that if you could take the numbers representing person-years with guns in a household and derive bad mishaps to factor in, you would find that we are a very safe Nation when it comes to households that have always had firearms and the whole family knew how to treat them, the record would be very good - probably better than most OSHA-monitored construction sites and police departments....


22 posted on 05/30/2014 3:48:42 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: servo1969
A study of 626 shootings in or around a residence in three U.S. cities revealed that

The flaws in the data show up instantly. This ignores that a huge portion of 'defensive gun use' involve no actual shot. The badguy sees a gun and runs. Also these studies never filter on law abiding people. Drugdealers and gang bangers and other people engaged in law breaking also use guns 'defensively'. The also don't bother to train their crumbcrunchers on safety. They also don't know squat about safety themselves.
23 posted on 05/30/2014 5:19:35 AM PDT by TalonDJ
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To: logi_cal869
The big difference is "the equalizer"

THis is huge and over looked. Even if guns made more violence (and they don't). It matters WHO is doing the violence. If brute force and blunt objects are the only weapon around then big thugs do most of the violence. Fighting back is out of the question for many people. Giving the helpless even a slight chance to fight back would be worth an increase of over all violence (if there was one and I don't think there is).
24 posted on 05/30/2014 5:25:44 AM PDT by TalonDJ
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To: TalonDJ

Overlooked and horribly understated.

Many get sucked into statistics, such as happened after some yahoo org distributed a ‘study’ that showed no correlation between gun ownership and reduction in crime.

Getting sucked into the debate on maleable statistics is ‘taking the bait’. It really is a simple argument.

But emotions grab headlines and the stupid eat it up...hence the drama of the past week & ongoing.

But note how the media is carefully treading around Elliot Rogers mental state; that’s a BIG tell...

Strong vs. weak; Predator vs. prey.

The rest of it is really an argument of hyperbole & abject servitude to the State vs. freedom. While written sparsely & simply, there really is a good reason the 2nd Amendment didn’t come 3rd, 4th or otherwise...

And the nut of the argument...one I LOVE to broach: If the argument that a lack of guns (and other weapons, for that matter), coupled with State Control, creates a Utopian society free of violence, is not the ultimate expression of that concept a ‘state-run prison’?

Take it from there and have fun.


25 posted on 05/30/2014 7:08:49 AM PDT by logi_cal869
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To: servo1969

Thank you so much for doing this. I’ve found the information here very useful.


26 posted on 05/30/2014 8:18:23 AM PDT by Bookworm Room
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To: servo1969
Kellerman's study was discredited.

The study that shows the presence of a gun facilitated suicide with a gun is pretty funny. It takes a scientific study to conclude that a person who lacks a gun doesn't commit suicide with a gun?

27 posted on 05/30/2014 8:23:28 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: servo1969
Individuals in possession of a gun at the time of an assault are 4.46 times more likely to be shot in the assault than persons not in possession (Branas et al, 2009). It would appear that, rather than being used for defense, most of these weapons inflict injuries on the owners and their families."
This type of lie makes me laugh too, because it is common and because many people fall for it. The leap of logic that people are invited to make is that a "rate of increase" is equivalent to greater numbers.

Aside from the statistical error, the action bias the writer is attempting to instill is to not defend yourself or present any resistance, because doing so is risky. By all means, if you have no intention to defend yourself, I concur with the conclusion, don't carry means to defend yourself.

28 posted on 05/30/2014 8:32:07 AM PDT by Cboldt
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To: All
What it really comes down to, however, is not statistics or law or science or other forms of discourse. It comes down to action and response on a single point of interest:

If the State attempts to disarm the citizens, what will happen?

The answer, quite simply, is that the citizens will start aggressively killing agents of the State.

At that point, the State will either surrender and resume its rightful place as the servant of the People, or it will press its case and cause revolution.

Following revolution, there will either be restored liberty or totalitarian butchery followed by national death.

I appreciate the varied motivations of the hoplophobes. I really do. Feelings are not facts, however. The simple fact is that if civilian disarmament is pursued past a certain point it will result in blood and death on a wide scale in addition to existential social unrest.


29 posted on 05/30/2014 11:30:15 AM PDT by Robert Teesdale
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To: All

To all those who helped, thank you so much. And our hard work paid off. One of my reliably Leftist friends said “I hate to say it, but your point are good. I need to think about this now.”


30 posted on 06/02/2014 1:12:11 PM PDT by Bookworm Room
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