Is America in Decline? Twenty signs America is not in decline.

It’s very fashionable to declare or pronounce, America is in decline- using such absurd anecdotal examples as the troubles in Syria (we didn’t do anything when Assad crossed the red line), Ukraine (we did not protect the Ukraine as promised in the Budapest Memorandum) gun shootings at shopping malls, troubled economy (when was our economy not troubled?- It’s troubled according to a developed countries standards- but compared to most of the world, it’s an exemplary example of market economics- giving the highest standard of living to the most people in the world). The other standard measurement used to support the assertion that America is in decline is the “rise” of China. No doubt China is making great strides- but one must keep things in perspective.

The American decline argument often exaggerates the success our opponents- like Russia and China (truth be told, the Russian military is very weak and backwards and China is not as rich as you think, has mountains of toxic debt and is in a very big speculative bubble- as well as the fact that China’s per capita GDP is only $7,000 per head compared to $56,000 per capita in the US- making us very rich and China very poor. In addition, the Chinese economic model can’t last much longer) and exaggerates the problems of America- while selectively ignoring major facts and factors which keeps America number one.

(Sign one) In 1900, the American GNP represented 25% of the worlds’ GNP, in 1935 America represented 24% of the world’s GNP, in 1965, 1970, 1980, 1990, 2000 America represented 23% of the worlds’ GNP and today- 2015 America represents 24% of the world’s GNP- where is the decline? We have consistently kept up with the growing pie of the world’s economy, consistently at the top of technology, manufacturing, agriculture, services- as the world economic pie grew- we have remained a full quarter of it consistently. This is an enormous fact for which cannot be ignored, but is usually ignored, here on Nolan as well as in the general media.

(Sign two) We are the third largest population in the world- and the only major industrial nation in the world to have projected continued major population increases for the foreseeable future- meaning a “GROWING” America- not declining.

(Sign three) Despite China, America continues to give the most money in development assistance in the world, by far, (not investment money development assistance) thus securing our soft power interests and deflecting undue influence from corrupt Chinese overseas practices.

(Sign four) The largest, by far, recipient of foreign direct investment- cumulatively- remains the United States at 2.8 trillion dollars, the UK is third with 1.5 trillion and China remains way back in third place at 1.3 trillion. So much for the vaunted China as an investment haven- serious investors and investment funds know that the US is the most secure, efficient and profitable market in the world.

(Sign five) America, by far, remains the LARGEST overseas investor (business) in the world, having cumulatively invested 4.8 trillion overseas while China is in a lowly 14th place at 541 billion. In 2014, America invested 338 billion in the rest of the world, while China only managed 101 billion. America’s economy remains 2/3rd’s domestically produced and consumed – yet still managed to out-invest China by 3 to 1.

(Sign six) America’s military spends more than the next 10 major military powers combined, and most importantly- not only is it the most lethal military in the world, it is the ONLY mobile military which can project lethal power to any place on the planet- being the only nation in the world with this ability. America remains the supreme nuclear power- able to deliver nuclear payloads by way of a TRIAD system- of land, sea and air based missiles- the ONLY nation in the world with this survivable capability. The Russian conventional military has only begun to modernize- while it recognized its failings during its short war with Georgia in 2008, and in the Ukraine crisis today- Russia reminds NATO that it still has nuclear weapons because it knows it’s no match for NATO in a conventional military exchange. China is also a large, slow and backwards military- with the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army) planning staff itself admitting in 2013 that it was decades behind America’s military capabilities- hence- China talks tough but dares not invoke an American military response anywhere in the world. This kind of supreme military power amounts to what is called:

Unseen last since the Roman Empire. In the context of having a mobile, advanced and proven military (when is the last large scale conflict the Chinese had?) there is not even a close second to the United States military.

(Sign seven) The American economy (as of the 4th quarter 2014) tops as the world’s largest at 17.5 trillion dollars- (In fact, because so much of the American economy is “intellectually value added” some economic experts estimate our economy to exceed 20 trillion). China’s economy is less than half of America, and that number itself is admittedly wildly inflated (based on State owned business which regularly massages their numbers- and state committees inflating numbers to hit preset numbers). Only 1/3 of America’s economy relies on trade (imports+exports), while China, Japan, Canada, Germany, South Korea, all rely heavily, up to 50%, on exporting their goods, and restricting internal consumption to home made products only. America produces and consumes 2/3rd of its economy- being self-reliant and allowing consumers the widest and cheapest range of goods available anywhere in the world- which results in the biggest middle class in the entire world. The American economy delivers the highest standard of living- to the most people on earth.

Even though trade is only 1/3 of the American economy, it remains the largest trading nation (exports + imports) in the world, and by value added- the largest exporter- (yes bigger than China). We remain the largest producer of energy- the largest oil producer, and while manufacturing only represents 24% of our GDP, we remain the largest industrial base in the world, with top companies like Boeing, Dow Chemical, Motorola, Johnson Tools, John Deere, 3M, Ford, GM, General electric- operating thousands of American factories with high paying jobs. America dominates globally in high tech sectors with manufacturing and engineering plants in California, Texas, Florida, etc. with jobs for Americans in America. It is very misleading to focus on the offshoring of our lowest tier industries, like t-shirts, shoes, plastic goods, cement, – do Americans want their children to grow up to work in a textile plant? American manufacturing is at the highest tier of high precision and quality manufacturing- on par with Germany and Japan. While on the other hand, China is NOT a competitor in this field at all. What is the last Chinese car you drove in? No, it’s American, Japanese or German. What was the last made-in-china airline jet you flew in? No, it was either American or a European Airbus. What kind of tech do you use- google, apple, yahoo, Microsoft…?? Yes- all American, not Chinese. Inventions, patents and new technology continue to be dominated by the United States, not China. This is because free people, free ideas and free capital nurtures great ideas and attracts and feeds entrepreneurs- the Chinese state system and lack of freedoms does not.

(Sign eight). America remains a liberal democracy- China is not. Liberal Democracy, as well described by Francis Fukayama, strikes the end of man’s ideological development- the best system we can have. China’s closed authoritarian corrupt regime will be impossible to survive; NO authoritarian regime has lasted longer than the free and democratic United States. One may argue about – is America really a democracy? Do the 1% elites control the remaining 99% of us? Well, as long as America remains a pluralistic society- and it does- then it doesn’t really matter. Whereas China- is NOT pluralistic, does not have any functions or features of democracy, is not government by the people, does not allow many basic freedoms –i.e. where to live, what to see on the internet, what to read or watch, who to vote for, freedom of speech, such a system cannot survive and is part of the past- failed systems of communism, fascism and authoritarianism- whereas liberal democracy is clearly the future. Nations without a true civil society- cannot last, America has a vibrant and active civil society- China has NONE.

(Sign nine) Soft Power; Visit any major capital, even in China or Russia, go to the diplomatic district and watch the lines of people applying for visas- the lines around the American Embassy are always, by far, the longest, seconded by countries like the UK, Canada and Australia. The lines are rather short- if even anyone, for those applying to visit or live in Russia, China, Cuba, North Korea, and Iran. The same would be said for immigration- for any variable number of reasons. When world crisis happens, natural disasters- the world as of yet- does not look towards China, the EU or Russia for help- they continue to look only to America.

Popular culture around the world is dominated by America, not Russia or China. When was the last Russian or Chinese movie you watched at the cinema? What is the latest Russian or Chinese pop group you listened to? America is not in decline, it continues its popularity through its systems, efficiency, people- American students, ambassadors, business people abroad- who are not all perfect- but give a great example of the best about America, wherein, the elites of Russia and China continue to send their children to American universities and invest their cash in America. How many people do you know that send their kids to Russian universities? How many people do you know change their dollars to Chinese RMB and open a Chinese bank account? I bet none. Whereas- “anywhere” you travel in the world- if you can exchange at least ONE currency- on the roadside, or at a store, or bank, or hotel- ALWAYS the dollar is trusted and wanted to exchange for the local currency. You’d be hard pressed to travel anywhere in the world and easily exchange a ruble or RMB- you know why? Because their whole system and money is suspect, closed and not transparent- no one wants rubles and RMB.

(Sign ten) The American dollar continues, by far (64%) to be the world reserve currency, as well as daily trading currency- meaning- nations around the world who hold reserve currencies- the choice is 64% for the dollar- no other currency comes close (the Euro is second with a mere 26%) and certainly not the Chinese RMB. In terms of daily trade- 87% of it is denominated in the dollar, the RMB accounts for 2% of daily world trade. (Bank for International Settlements 2013). The American dollar continues to rise against most other world currencies, including the ruble and RMB… prey tell- are these signs of decline? You must be kidding; these are undeniable, cold hard facts, not anecdotes- of continued dominance by America- full spectrum global domination without a second even close to America.

(Sign eleven) Education; the world elites send their children to America for university- not China or Russia. America “continues” to dominate the top 10, 50 and 100 universities in terms of quality rankings… not China or Russia. (See “Q” Rankings) Where is the decline? That means American education, information, culture, language, civil society, rule of law, …American values are being taught to international elites- many from China and Russia, and not the other way around. Many of these elite youths go on to return to their countries and seek reforms along the lines of America. 15 of the top ranked 20 universities in the world are in America. America spends the most per students for education than any other nation in the world ($12,000 per student) (OECD study 25 June 2013 AP) with the majority of funds to give teachers high salaries- second only to Luxembourg- where is the decline? World science is in English, dominated by the United States, scientists and researchers from around the world come to study in America, intern in America- NOT Russia or China- where is the decline?

(Sign twelve) Media; around the world, cable systems carry a full host of American channels- from CNN, Fox News, to Discovery channel and HBO- NOT Chinese and Russian channels- CNN is known around the world- please name me a Russian or Chinese network? (RT- Russian Television is an up and comer- trying to break into soft power- and CCTV would be the most well-known of the Chinese English news/channel broadcasters- but pale in comparison to availability and viewership of CNN, Fox News or even CBS.) The entire world watches American movies, American shows, American comedy… creating a virtual cultural stranglehold seconded by no one.

In terms of world rankings- media portals are absolutely dominated by America; Facebook, YouTube, Wikipedia, Amazon, EBay, twitter- now name me the Russian or Chinese websites you use daily? Where is the decline?

(Sign thirteen) Top medical innovator; America has solely or contributed highly to the top 9 of 10 most important medical innovations of the past 40 years (ranked by a pool of Physicians). Since the mid-1960’s- more Americans have received the Nobel Prize in medicine than the entire world combined. In terms of controversial health care- America outspends- either per capita or as a percentage of GNP on health care more than any other nation in the world. Where is the decline? Who travels to Russia or China for healthcare or specialized medicine or treatment? Where do the elites of the world go for specialized medical treatments? The US, Switzerland and the UK- not Russia or China.

The United States “leads” the world in scientific research papers (UK Office of Science and Technology) where is the decline?

(Sign fourteen) Transport: America, by far, has the largest vehicle ownership- per capita, in the entire world…765 per 1,000 Americans- where is the decline? Most US households have “at least” two cars/trucks- visit Beijing and Shanghai- visit Tokyo, visit Moscow and see how many cars the average middle class family owns- zero, with only the upper middle class owning- perhaps 1 car. Where is the decline? Chinese vehicle ownership, per capita is about 1/10th of America- so much for the Chinese economic model serving its citizens.

(Sign fifteen) How the world flies- who and where? America “continues” to dominate the global aviation industry- according to passengers carried (2014) 1. American Airlines (USA) 2. Delta (USA) 3. United (USA) 4. South West (USA) China only manages to rank in at 6th place. Now, China has 1.3 billion people, America only 320 million in comparison- why do so few Chinese fly? Because China is a “relatively” poor country- and America is a rich country- where is the decline? The “average” American can afford to fly, the “average” Chinese cannot. When is the last time you took the train to Las Vegas, or your trip to Orlando on a bus? Americans fly more than any other nation in the world- where is the decline?

(Sign sixteen) Net household wealth; after you pay your bills, what is your net worth? America, has by far, the largest net household wealth- (Credit Suisse 2014)

The USA is number 1 with 84 trillion in net household worth, Japan second with a mere 23 Trillion and the so called- super rich China- a paltry 21 trillion- so where is the American decline?

(Sign seventeen) America dominates global brands- not China or Russia. (BrandZ-Report 2013) most valuable brands globally; 1.Apple 2. Google 3. IBM 4. McDonalds 5. Coca Cola 6. At&T 7. Microsoft 8. Marlboro 2.Visa 10. China Mobile

Wow, of the top ten brands- America holds 9 out of 10, and China has one out of ten. Where is the decline? The decline is in the hype of cheap media who do not research simple facts and writers on Nolan who use anecdotes and stories instead of researching the facts.

(Sign eighteen) Information Technology- America remains the top spender on Information Technology to keep the leading edge in science, computers, aerospace, 3D printing, nanotechnology, etc. According to the study of International Data Corporation 2013, Global IT spending as a percentage of world total IT spending-

America was by far “number one” at 32%, with “entire” EU accounting for 25% and Japan and China combined- only 17%- so where is the decline?

(Sign nineteen) Brains and Intellect; No one comes close to America, with total aggregate Nobel Prize winners (all categories) China has (6) Nobel winners, Russia has (28) while the United States has a commanding 353 winners- where is the decline? With regards to patents, take a look at the US versus its competitors- China and Russia.

Patents: USA in the year 2000: 85,000 patents, in 2013: 134,000 with a total of 3,100,000 since 1963. Russia had 119 in the year 2000, and 417 in 2013 with a grand total of 23,000 since 1963. China, had only 119 patents in 2000, and 5,900 in 2013- that is 5,900 versus 134,000 for the United States- where is the decline?

(Sign twenty) Just for good measure; America got 2,681 Olympic medals since 1896, Russia (Tsarist Russia+USSR+CSIS+Russia) got 1,868 and China only got 526- so I ask you- where is the decline?

America may have its ups and downs, but the long term trend continues to display American global dominance and a long trek forward for China to overtake America in important fundamental factors of being a powerful or influential nation. Many have predicted the fall of America, Civil War, when the Soviet Union orbited Sputnik, Vietnam-Nixon crisis years, the Carter years- the 2008 Lehman brothers collapse, the Rise of Japan- all have come and gone but America has continued to prosper and remain number one without a close second. Regarding those who would say- much of this was done with credit and has resulted in massive debt- this author would respond that- much of American debt is productive, most of American debt is owed to Americans- not foreigners- therefore those who bear the interest- are Americans, our debt is easily serviceable, and as a percentage of our national assets- (valued between 180 and 225 trillion dollars- depends on your accounting- but federal oil assets alone are worth over 150 trillion)) our national accumulated debt remains small when compared to our assets- and “that is” how accumulated debit is calculated (analyzed)- against your available assets.

America has too many things going for it to lose the number one position, and China has too many things against it for it to be able to catch up. America remains great, America remains..

How many times can you substitute “Rome” for “America” there?

Rome was authoritarian after transitioning from republic to empire, and it did last about five centuries. That does not mean “America” will, necessarily.

Comments? Yes.

“We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge or gallantry would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.” - John Adams

We have lost our spiritual compass in this country. We are in decline.

I was born in 1965.

My personal opinion is that I was born near the apex of American Exceptionalism.

In my life, I have watched the decay of this nation, and I have grieved...

Anyone who sees Obama in office and says America is not “in decline” is simply CRAZY! ... :-) ...

I told a liberal that I knew we were in bad trouble when Obama was elected and we were ruined when he was elected twice.

Before she could say anything I asked her to name one good thing he has done for the country. She couldn’t answer me.

The author sounds like some Pollyanna numbers cruncher, attempting to convince all that everything is just peachy...And it is for the top 8% or so.

Those capable of critical thought, can see right through Pollyanna.

Like Rush, I happen to live in the world of real.

We are in a state of decline and it makes no sense denying it.
It gives me no great pleasure to say this. If there were any encouraging signs I would feel differently, but there are none to speak of.

This nation will be non white minority in two generations max

It will be close to Brasil in demographics

Anyone thinks that’s irrelevant is a damn idiot

Sounds like a corporate shill.

Most of the measures he cites relate to the economy. There is nothing political or social.

Except in one case where he claims we're better off than China because we have a Democracy even if it is controlled by the 1%. Well the USSR had a "democracy" that was controlled by the 1%

He claims our education system is great because we have the best colleges. But our best colleges are more-and-more educating foreigners. And our K-12 is getting worse by the year.

Anyone that is a cosmopolitan with no national allegiances could look at this list and say: Well maybe I could spend some time in NY after all. But no American can look at these statistics and say they clearly bode well for America's future.

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