Posted on 04/24/2016 9:27:12 AM PDT by ziravan
Donald Trump will not reach 1237 delegates before the GOP July Cleveland Convention and there will be a floor fight for the Nomination.
For the purposes of this analysis, both Sen. Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are peripheral characters. Both will continue to pursue their best strategy to the nomination, Trump on first ballot, Cruz on 2nd or 3rd (most likely 4th after Florida delegates are released).
There will be a contested convention because the media will push for it.
1. Blood in the streets in Cleveland? Damn, that's a generational story. Somebody's gonna win a Pulitzer here.
2. Permanent fracture in the GOP? That's the left's wet dream.
All you have to do is look at the flow of the narrative to understand that the media is fully vested in a contested convention and everything they hope to gain from it.
They haven't put thousands of camera hours into this narrative to let it slip away.
Fortunately for them, getting from here to there is a two step jump. After this Tuesday, the narrative will be (is already starting) that Sen Cruz is remaking himself into a more positive image - he's being nicer, showing his humanity- and is gaining new respect in Indiana).
Between Indiana on May 3rd and California on Jun 7, the media will have a month to sell its story to its home base, California.
Bernie Sanders most likely drops after Tuesday's election, so there will be no Democrat primary to attract democrat voters. Also, voting for offices below President in California goes by two most popular vote getters, regardless of party. This means democrat voters can switch to vote in the GOP Presidential primary without losing the ability to vote for their choices "down ballot". And, the deadline to switch is May 23rd.
Now. Democrat crossover has been good for Donald Trump, right? Partially, yes, however, with a contested democrat primary, crossover voters have generally been disaffected democrat voters.
California, with no contested democrat primary and for all the Presidential marbles on the GOP side, will bring out a different democrat animal, an Operation Chaos democrat. Chaos this cycle for the GOP certainly favors a contested convention.
The only check to voting for Chaos is that for Cali leftists, that's a vote for Cruz. Here though, Trump's more strident supporters are making the case by threatening to walk. Daydreams of a permanent rift in the GOP will be make Nominee Cruz more palatable to leftists who believe such a rift makes him unelectable. And that's even assuming the convention doesn't turn to a white knight that will make things worse!
Watch the narrative after Tuesday. Sen. Cruz being the little engine that could narrative for Indiana is a portend for a straight month of media influencing the California outcome.
The media wants a contested convention. They will work for it. They already are working for it. Fortunately for the media, they get a month to play to their home base, California.
I disagree. VERY few candidates anywhere have 50 state ground games and Sen. Cruz just spent tens of millions on one.
Those connections, combined with being the runner up here (assuming keeping his powder dry) makes him the front runner in the next open GOP contest.
In the meantime, so long as Sen. Cruz sees possibilities with the current scenario, he’ll pursue it.
When he doesn’t, he’ll move to maintain viability for next time.
Let’s assume for a moment, and it’s still an assumption, that Trump is the nominee. Sen Cruz will have all of you here commenting very favorably about his convention reconciliation speech. Best speech you’ve heard in years. That’s the way these things work.
I didn’t bury the lead. My first sentence pushed both candidates aside and discussed media strategy.
I was entertaining a previous assumption made in thread, as opposed to commenting on the topic of the thread.
“having the necessary number doesn’t automatically mean you will be nominated. The rules can and will be changed.”
If they do that at the convention, after Trump gets the 1237 EVs, that will be the end of the Republican party. I hope they include that in their calculations.
However, even if it goes to a contested convention, Trump will still win.
For one, you come in here claiming the enemedia’s narrative so we pretty much get your narratives of this race is defined by them.
Do you know why they are called the enemedia? It’s because they are mainly made up of statists, the enemies of freedom and liberty.
Do you also realize that Ted Cruz has joined in with them and the GOPe to try to disrupt this nomination if they can? TELL ME, what is so principled or conservative about that??? Ted Cruz has joined in with the enemies of this country in order to further his own ego and ambitions. Again, what is so principled or conservative about that???
JR, this site owner is correct, at this point Cruz has very little chance at the nomination outright and the only reason to stay in is to help the other side and that is ultimately, Hillary Clinton. You just keep digging yourself deeper in to the enemedia’s narrative and you are getting called out for what it is.
If you’d paid any attention here, both Cruz and Trump have been vetted, without the enemedia’s influence and it turns out Trump, with his Pro-American agenda is best to lead our nation. Yes, he has his faults but his strengths outweigh those by a longshot. And the vetted Cruz here, turns out he is nothing more than a sleazy lawyer, playing the part of a conservative. Cruz’s less than principled ambitions, has damaged his brand for a long time.
I say again, quit letting the enemedia define this race, go read what Jim Robinson and others are saying and check it out for yourself, without the enemedia’s influence and the picture will be clearer for you.
Help us, along with Donald Trump, to get this country back on track, or get out of the way.
CGato
Thanks. Me too. You're just making it easy at this point: "I just do not understand this aggressive Tedlim desire to be publically humiliated. None of you ever have the facts to back up anything you say."
“This guy is from Texas, a cruz bot...”
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It figures.
Let's drop this fighting. Trump has it. Cruz & Kasich are about to ostracize themselves forever by staying in this race.
WHen has Bernie ever gotten this much attention. He’ll want his turn at the convention with the spotlight on.
Hard to say but I’m getting polling calls every day here in Indiana.
Up to 10 days ago, not a one.
The Media DeathStar would like NOTHING more than the chaos a contested convention would cause on the Republican side.
Hillary is badly damaged - this is why a number of Wisconsin counties were voted to Cruz by the Wisconsin Democrat vote machine - to keep Cruz in it.
The Democrats need Cruz still in it to triage Clinton's gutshot campaign.
The Bern is putting the hurt on the Red Queen.
There is also the ratings BONANZA that the lefty Media would get.
I say all this as a known and notorious FR Trumpkin [and damn proud of it, too!]
Hadn't noticed that before in all these years. Good eye, miss marmelstein.
I'll vouch for his tagline - he's had it for a while.
We tangled a while back. :)
>>> Let’s drop this fighting. Trump has it. Cruz & Kasich are about to ostracize themselves forever by staying in this race.
I pray what you assert is true.
How’s that working out for them?
On face value WSJ (wire service journalism, aka “the MSM”) has been pushing to eliminate Trump from the beginning. But if you reflect on how they did that, you will realize that in fact they were “throwing him into the briar patch” from the beginning.Think . . . if you were trying to promote a reality TV star, could you do it any better than to put him in a “reality” setting? And by making the debates all about him, and little to nothing about substance, that is fundamentally the dynamic of this contest.
If this mud wrestling match has taught us anything at all, it should be that democracy is not effective at getting the best president; it is only about limiting the damage. It is #neverHillary, in the end.
I appreciate the link! Wow!
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