Skip to comments.The big Hillary lead never existed
Posted on 10/28/2016 10:25:40 AM PDT by TheRef
Now that dominant liberal media has impacted expectations for the election in favor of Hillary, they risk telling the truth
Citizens' expectations of who will win is best indicator & media knows it
Who voters expect will win represents the best indicator of who will actually win, according to The Hill's Andreas Graffe. Certainly he is not alone in this assessment. Having studied polling for years, I surmise that this idea holds the status of a truism among pollsters. Of course expectations have a dominating influence on who actually wins.
Expectations matter so much because voter turnout matters enormously. Essentially pollsters know how most people will vote if they turn out. The problem? They don't know who will actually come out and vote.
The liberal media and NeverTrumpers have attempted to instill the expectation that Hillary will win for months so they can impact voter turnout. Usually expectations are impacted most effectively by authors and commentators writing and speaking with the assumption that Hillary will win, almost as if to assert anything contrary represents a clearly uninformed statement. They attempt to make those who disagree with them seem ignorant of the zeitgeist and out of touch bumpkins.
We've all seen this, and while it enrages conservatives, it works on the lesser informed casual observer. When Monica Crowly dared to suggest that Trump can still win last night, Megyn Kelly looked bemused and quickly turned to Democrat Bill Burton, doubtfully questioning if Trump could chip away at Hillary's lead enough to win, and Bill gave her what she wanted saying, "this race is cooked."
Wink wink Hillary
Two Alternate Universes
Newt had just made the argument to Megyn in a widely publicized confrontation that two alternative universes exist, one where the race is over and one that questions the pollsters' assumption that Hillary can reproduce a 2012 huge minority and millennial turnout. Megyn clearly likes the traditional pollsters' universe more, where it is clearly absurd to consider the possibility that one of the two major candidates who is within five points has any chance of winning. Yay democracy!
On this point, Newt has a good argument. On the very same day, the two following sentences appeared in polling stories about the presidential election polls by major and respected pollsters.
USA Today on 8/26: "If her lead holds up until the results are tallied on Nov. 8 no sure thing Clinton would carry the White House by the widest margin in the popular vote of any candidate since Ronald Reagan's 49-state landslide in 1984."
Fox News on 8/26: "With less than two weeks to go, the race for the White House has narrowed as Hillary Clinton now has a three-point advantage over Donald Trump. That’s within the margin of error of the national Fox News Poll of likely voters."
Nothing really happened to make all the polls shift at once, except that we passed the twenty-one day until the election mark. These shifts in the polls indicate that now the pollsters know they are being graded so it's time to get the polls right.
RCP chart reflecting the pollsters' universal shift from their inflated Clinton leads
The simple fact is that the media polls, if one does not carefully ferret out and give the proper weight to polls designed to suppress the Republican vote, will give a false picture of the election right up until three weeks before the election. This is a political strategy designed to prop up Democrats during the early vote period and make every think the election is cooked, as Bill Burton suggested last night.
Short-Circuiting Trump's Strategy
The assumption and constant proclaiming that the election is over is an attempt to short-circuit Trump's basic strategy. Trump wins in negotiations by imposing pressure on this opponents. The Art of the Deal makes clear that one must be willing to walk away at any point, so nothing is more integral to Trump's basic strategy than brinkmanship.
The brink in this analogy represents a choice, where we go one of two directions. The media wants to avert voters' eyes away from the brink by making them think Trump has no chance, that there is no choice, just go back to sleep. So when Megyn says it's over, she is really saying she wants you to believe it's over so you won't look at the brink.
It's not over, and the media knows it
When enough battleground states for Trump to reach 265 electoral votes are within a point or two in the poll averages, the race is not over. Trump can win in New Hampshire and Pennsylvania too. We need to let this election play out.
The media's constant attempt to tell you it's over demonstrates perhaps better than anything that the race is not over.
My Twitter account is just getting started. Follow me here!
So the rats know this and now they have turned the FBI back on the case because they are losing and the know it. AND they will put someone else in.
I just hope she believed all of the stories of her being in the lead.
I would give anything to be a fly on the wall when she hears NY State went for Trump.
Welcome to FR...
We always knew!.........
I was thinking that too but I'm not sure of the logistics of that.
Of course. They run an outlier poll or 2, 3 4 and then Trump has to fight the rolling averages. Such bunk.
“AND they will put someone else in.”
There’s no chance of that happening, and even if it could happen, it wouldn’t help them much this late in the race.
There are no logistics for that. Hillary’s name is already on the ballot in 50 states, and that is the name that is going to stay there through election day. Even if Hillary agreed to step aside (and that’s the only way they could remove her, she would have to do it voluntarily), they would still have to convince people to put the check next to Hillary’s name anyway.
they will put someone else in.
Can the Rats do this?
Polls are voodoo at this point:
—Approximately five percent of people contacted respond.
—No-one, and I mean no-one, knows to what extent these five percent represent the total population.
—There has been insane over-sampling of Democrats based on 2012 patterns.
—No-one, and I mean no-one, has the slightest clue what the party representation will be of voters who will vote on election day.
—No-one knows what turnout will look like on election day.
—And, to make it worse, no-one has reliable data on the key states that will decide the electoral college.
Polling at this point is raw sewage.
Media reporting of polling is toxic waste.
Easy. The vote is for Federal electors, not for particular candidates. The party can notify the electors before they vote in Dec. that its candidate has changed. The electors are the ones who actually vote for President.
If the candidate that the EC votes in can't serve by Inauguration Day, then the issue drops into the lap of the House of Representatives, which has the final say.
Of course it didn’t. THIS is why Comey and Zero are bailing on the Witch. She is tanking and they don’t want to go down with her.
Good observation that this is specifically an attempt to short-circuit Trump’s strategy.
I could be wrong but I believe the election on Nov. 8 is for a slate of electors to the electoral college. Those electors are able to vote for whomsoever they please when the electoral college meets. The democrat electors may vote for someone else, especially if Hillary is comatose or indicted by then.
I believe this is a contrived decline to get voters motivated to the polls.
As Obama has been criticized as remaining in campaign mode long after the campaign has ended, the media seems to be stuck in the campaign mode of 2008.
As a consequence of the media being stuck in 2008 campaign mode, the premise that the media has successfully impacted voter expectations as to who is going to win the 2016 presidential race ignores that Donald Trump has successfully stirred up a revolution against the corrupt Washington cartel.
This is not a plausible strategy. There is not enough time to put somebody new in. Many have already voted. And the ballots are not going to be changed on such short notice. What do you expect them to do then? A write in campaign?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.