Ref's Electoral Projection 11/02/16: Trump 279, Clinton 259 (Analyzing 84 polls from last two week)

Political Ref ^ | 11/02/16

[TheRef]

Ref's Electoral Projection as of 11/2/16 - Analyzing 84 polls in 10 states from the last two weeks

 

I assume Trump will win Maine-2 and all five Nebraska electoral votes

Polls Only - Clinton 293, Trump 245

Sample Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266

Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias - Clinton 272, Trump 266

REF'S PROJECTION: Sample Bias + Shy Trump Voter Bias + Late breaking voters (FBI + incumbency rule) - Clinton 259, Trump 279

FBI refers to the reopening of the investigation and the impact of it. Incumbency rule - normally if incumbents are not above 50%, they are in trouble. I am using 47% as a guide. Where she is below that, she is in danger.

*Sample Bias and Shy Trump Voter Bias Explained  

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	Florida	Clinton 44.9, Trump 45.4
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46	Polls Only - Trump +0.5 Sample bias - Trump +1.7 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +2.3 Late breaking - Trump +2.5
	SurveyMonkey	10/24-10/31	2809LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1286LV	Clinton 37, Trump 44
	Remington Research	10/30	990LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	408LV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 45
	*NYT/Sienna College	10/25-10/27	820LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
	*NBC/Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
	Gravis	10/25-10/26	1301RV	Clinton 48, Trump 47
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	800LV	Clinton 49, Trump 45
	*PPP	10/25-10/26	740LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
	Dixie Strategies	10/25-10/26	700LV	Clinton 42, Trump 46
	*Bloomberg	10/21-10/24	810LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
	Florida Atlantic Univ	10/21-10/23	500LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	CBS/YouGov	10/21-10/22	1040LV	Clinton 43, Trump 46
	Ohio	Clinton 44.0, Trump 46.1
	SurveyMonkey	10/20-10/28	1980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +2.1 Sample bias - Trump +2.9 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +3.4 Late breaking - Trump +3.5
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45
	Remington Research	10/30	1187LV	Clinton 43, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	340LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	800LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	508LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	Trafalger Group	10/24-10/26	1150LV	Clinton 44, Trump 49
	*Suffolk	10/17-10/19	500LV	Clinton 45, Trump 45
	North Carolina	Clinton 45.5, Trump 44.9
	WRAL/Survey USA	10/28-10/31	660LV	Clinton 44, Trump 51	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +0.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +1.3 Late breaking - Trump +1.6
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1570LV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	730LV	Clinton 34, Trump 41
	Remington Research	10/30	1180LV	Clinton 45, Trump 47
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	350LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	650LV	Clinton 48, Trump 45
	*Elon Univ	10/23-10/27	710LV	Clinton 42, Trump 41
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	640LV	Clinton 48, Trump 44
	*Marist College	10/25-10/26	780LV	Clinton 47, Trump 41
	Gravis	10/25-10/26	1270RV	Clinton 49, Trump 47
	*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	700LV	Clinton 47, Trump 43
	*Monmouth	10/20-10/23	400LV	Clinton 47, Trump 46
	Wisconsin	Clinton 47.7, Trump 43.3
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1200LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42	Polls Only - Clinton +4.4 Sample bias - Clinton +3.5 Shy Voter Bias - Clinton +2.1 Late breaking - Clinton +1.0
	Remington Research	10/30	1170LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50,.Trump 46
	*Emerson College	10/27-10/28	400LV	Clinton 48, Trump 42
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	520LV	Clinton 47, Trump 42
	UPI/CVoter	10/16-10/23	360LV	Clinton 51, Trump 46
	*Let America Work	10/18-10/20	600LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
	Iowa	Clinton 43.0, Trump 44.4
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	980LV	Clinton 40, Trump 45	Polls Only - Trump +1.4 Sample bias - Trump +2.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.9 Late breaking - Trump +3.1
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	330LV	Clinton 48, Trump 48
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	360LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
	*Quinnipiac	10/20-10/26	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 44
	*Des Moines Register	10/3-10/6	642LV	Clinton 39, Trump 43
	Nevada	Clinton 44.0, Trump 43.4
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +0.6 Sample bias - Trump +0.5 Shy Voter Bias - Trump +0.9 Late breaking - Trump +1.1
	Survey Monkey	10/25-10/31	1010LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
	Remington Research	10/30	790LV	Clinton 44, Trump 48
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Emerson College	10/26-10/27	550LV	Clinton 44, Trump 42
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	290LV	Clinton 40, Trump 40
	Gravis	10/25	880RV	Clinton 46, Trump 46
	*Marist	10/20-10/24	710LV	Clinton 43, Trump 43
	Arizona	Clinton 43.6, Trump 45.4
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1460LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44	Polls Only - Trump +1.3 Adjusted - Trump +2.6 Shy Voter bias - Trump +2.8 Late breaking - Trump +3.3
	*Data Orbital	10/29-10/30	550LV	Clinton 41, Trump 45
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 43, Trump 51
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	990LV	Clinton 42, Trump 44
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	550LV	Clinton 43, Trump 42
	Saguaro Strategoes	10/22-10/24	2390LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Monmouth	10/21-10/24	400LV	Clinton 45, Trump 46
	Colorado	Clinton 44.0, Trump 41.3
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	1530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 39	Polls Only - Clinton +2.7 Sample bias - Clinton +1.9 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.8 Late breaking - Trump +0.5
	Remington Research	10/30/	950LV	Clinton 45, Trump 44
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/14-10/27	440LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1000LV	Clinton 42, Trump 39
	Pennsylvania	Clinton 46.0, Trump 42.5
	*The Franklin and Marshall poll showing an eleven point lead is excluded. It was taken from a voter list, so new voters are not included, has a 5.1 margin of error, and was completed almost entirely before James Comey's announcement on Friday. This is definitely not an eleven point race and this poll only serves to throw off the average.				Polls Only - Clinton +3.5 Sample bias - Clinton +2.3 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +1.3 Late breaking - Clinton +0.2
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 43, Trump 44
	SurveyMonkey	10/25-10/31	2260LV	Clinton 49, Trump 41
	Google Consumer Surveys	10/25-10/31	1030LV	Clinton 37, Trump 39
	Remington Research	10/30	1250LV	Clinton 45, Trump 43
	Gravis	10/25-10/30	3220RV	Clinton 47, Trump 44
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	370LV	Clinton 50, Trump 46
	*CBS/YouGov	10/26-10/28	1090LV	Clinton 48, Trump 40
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/21-10/27	450.LV	Clinton 48, Trump 46
	*Emerson	10/25-10/26	550LV	Clinton 48, Trump 43
	*Muhlenberg College	10/20-10/26	420LV	Clinton 45, Trump 39
	New Hampshire	Clinton 45.6, Trump 42.3
	*Alliance/ESA	10/27-10/31	530LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40	Polls Only - Clinton +3.3 Sample bias - Clinton +1.6 Shy Voter bias - Clinton +0.3 Late breaking - Trump +0.4
	*Univ. of New Hampshire	10/26-10/30	620LV	Clinton 46, Trump 39
	UPI/CVoter	10/23-10/29	310LV	Clinton 50, Trump 47
	Inside Sources	10/26-10/28	410LV	Clinton 43, Trump 45
	Reuters/Ipsos	10/7-10/27	160LV	Clinton 44, Trump 40
	*Emerson	10/23-10/25	600LV	Clinton 46, Trump 43
	*Monmouth	10/22-10/25	400LV	Clinton 46, Trump 42

[az_gila]

Non-stop dirt coming out on Hitlery and her cohorts. None of these projections reflect the damage being done every hour; case closed.

---

It's a pity so many have voted early.

Perhaps some Federal restrictions are needed on the length of time for early voting?

I personally prefer voting on one day with fingers dipped in dye...:^)

[Sarah Barracuda]

Newt Gingrich pointed out last night that in Minnesota, they polled 75000 schoolchildren and Trump beat Clinton..normally when little kids “vote” they are going by their parents beliefs..not that I think MN will go red this year(Too many Muslims in St. Paul) but hey anything is possible

[personalaccts]

We need PA. That’s it. NV and CO are concerning

[Kaisersrsic]

Ref - Are you factoring in the differences in early voting?

For example, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire have essentially no early voting, so the election results in those states will presumably be more influenced by “late breaking voters.”

North Carolina, on the other hand, may have already collected 50% of their ballots.

[Sarah Barracuda]

I have a friend who lives in West Linn, OR, she says the area is pretty Conservative(She came here from Australia and raised her son to be Conservative..she hates Socialism since she lived it in Australia) she says once you get to Portland its nothing but hippy liberal freaks

[TheRef]

I have New Hampshire going to Trump. Pennsylvania does have early voting but you can change your votes there. Pennsylvania could to Trump, I have him losing it by 0.2%. When margins are this close, momentum means so much, but PA is one tough nut to crack. I lived there when Bush ran in 2000 and remember Philly always providing what they need. It could happen. If Michigan really is tied, like a poll today shows, PA could go.

[Little Bill]

In NH the out of State College vote in East Vermont, 2nd Cong. Dist., and same day sign ups may turn the vote.

If you want to study voter fraud come to NH.

[Zathras]

I lived in West Portland for 7 years.
I used to joke that all the people who thought Berkeley was too conservative moved to Portland and Eugene.

[pabianice]

I enjoy my morning coffee while looking at the (biased) RCP average and seeing it go from H+15 to H+1.7 in two weeks.

[TheRef]

RCP this year has been so obnoxious. They include obvious outliers intended to throw off their averages.

[ScottfromNJ]

New poll Trump + 3 in Virginia!

[Jacquerie]

I’d like to see reemergence of federalism. No 270 votes? Fine, send the election to the House of Reps and see if weak-kneed pubbies can find a backbone.

[reformedliberal]

It isn’t reaching the old feminists. Trying very hard, without being obnoxious, to show a 78-year-old female the light. Nothing matters to her except having a female POTUS. She won’t accept any damaging information. A guy who calls himself Republican (68) has become tight lipped. He only accepts NYT/WSJ/Economist as fact. Nothing will make him vote for Trump. A Pinot Noir Progressive has become quiet and is pursuing dual citizenship based on legacy heritage in Lichtenstein. He’s wealthy, but not THAT wealthy, IMO.

Life is just fine for these folks. They do not want revolution. They “do not believe” Hillary will start WWIII, is a criminal, a crook or, especially, a murderer or accomplice to murder. Obamacare means nothing to them. Their children can afford the premiums or have employer-based insurance.

All three will vote for Hillary. They will not accept any negative information about her.

[Liz]

The latest 2016 electoral map resembles the 2014 midterm map....
......when the Democrats got slaughtered (smirk)......

2014 map is Congressional results.

[Liz]

Hillary is bad enough, but the Podesta leaks give us insight into the smug, smarmy, holier-than-thou types in the Hillary camp.

All of them are positioned for big jobs in a Hillary admin (gag).

For me, having to put up w/ hokey hillbilly Bill is a real downer.

[Ingtar]

Yesterday, he had Trump ahead in Florida, but had not updated his main map.

[Gay State Conservative]

save for later

[combat_boots]

Tennessee

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailv2&imgurl=https%3a%2f%2fpbs.twimg.com%2fmedia%2fCwRslyvWgAAWz-5.jpg%3alarge&purl=&iss=sbi&adlt=strict

[jmaroneps37]

This looks very doable- no pie in the sky and he can still take Michigan and Pennsylvania because of Obamacare and a general lack of enthusiasm among Democrats.

[justiceseeker93]

(1) What do you guys think of the latest LAT/USC poll (using different but scientific methodology, but accurate in 2012) showing Trump + 5.4 points this morning?

(2) Could it be that LVs in most of these polls don't include completely new voters and voters who haven't voted in a long time, who tend to be enthusiastic for Trump? And what about Dem LV's being discouraged by the scandals surrounding their Witch and not voting in their usual numbers?

(3) Wisconsin: No reason for Trump to be discouraged there, given Scott Walker's three wins vs. intense 'Rat agitation.

(4) Could CT be in play for Trump? Recall last gubernatorial election there where the 'Rat incumbent won, but by narrow margin.

(5) What is a SURVEY MONKEY poll? Seems like it has more connection to DONKEYS - the Democrats who run it - than it does to monkeys. (LOL!)