Posted on 04/06/2020 7:37:35 AM PDT by conservative98
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The shortage of PPE is real. It’s outrageous our medical people do not have enough protective gear.
Trump will have a clear mandate for tax breaks and lots of other good things like that.
But yeah, I've tried to be up-front about the methodology I'm using. I'd be the first to admit it's completely dependent on reported data. However, if day-day tallies from gov't sources are spurious, they should eventually smooth out to approx a similar end point.
I'm not sure the 30k CV total may be that far off. We now know the majority of CV victims fall within an at-risk segment. Assuming they are a lagging - rather than leading - indicator, that means the pool of potential new victims is small(er) relative to total population. If that's the case, then we will see a sudden, precipitous drop - just like a Ponzi scheme. (Can't keep that finance impulse down.)
I thought Hermes was a little gay dude....
One of my big interests as a Psych Undergrad was Sensation and Perception. Intense study of audition, vision, taste, tactile sensation, you name it. No peaks. A LOT of cardiac and Pulmonary physiology, renal function, liver function. No peaks. There is ONE biological system that produces peaks. The Axon. And what it goes through to do that is an extreme effort which is why over the decades it has been the source of so much research and study.
These shortages are in the hot spots. The vast majority of healthcare facilities are being underutilized. Nurses and doctors are being furloughed.
I suspect that today’s USA # new deaths will be a bit of a jump over the # from two days ago and the data from NYC so far today would tend to support that.
Between him, Mnuchin & Kushner, they know they're holding a straight flush. With even a very modest multiplier effect, Trump can literally inflate the economy at will.
Why do you think there's really not that much concern about potential fraud, waste & abuse? Because no one is going to sit on the money. Even if undeserving persons get checks, they are going to spend it. That's the entire point: get that $8T out and circulating.
Between people spending like there's no tomorrow, and China offshoring coming home, the inflationary effects are going to drown debt obligations to nil. This is how Trump destroys the Fed anyway, by making the value of their holdings (near) worthless.
Hans Blix? Where do these names come from, other than a James Bond screenplay?
You got me. My investment history is when I finally started making a few bucks in 1990 I did some research and put all I could into Mutual Funds, two of them. Janus and Euro Pacific. IIRC $50K. I got nervous going into the Gore Bush election and dumped everything just before the “market” tanked 40% IIRC. I thanked Him and learned my lesson. I don’t have what it takes to be an “investor”.
People don’t realize what a significant %age of the calories one consumes every day goes into JUST Axonal Spikes. That’s how hard it is for a biological system to produce that kind of data.
These data will fuel Trump's efforts to get this country back to work. It also makes the 8 governors who didn't go full lockdown look a little better. Here in SC, the new prediction reduces total deaths from around 1,600 to 442 thru Aug 4. We currently have 44 deaths. So 400 deaths over the next 120 days.
Goodness?!?
Just to give you a rough idea,10% of your resting cardiac output goes straight to the brain. The brain is the “hungriest” of all the organs. Most of the calories it delivers goes into production of Axon spikes.
All good points. I’ll add that debt at nearly 0% interest rates and refinancing everything makes a big hole is future risk. It took me awhile to figure out that borrowing PV dollars and paying them back at a fixed rte of payment with inflated MOD dollars is a pretty good deal if the interest rate is right.
My depression era parents made me show away from borrowing for a long time.
If I were younger and hand need I would try to borrow a pretty good chunk but I’m living off of my investments now so I’m less inclined to borrow. I’d need a good margin of contingency to borrow enough to really matter a lot.
It looks to me like the market really wants to come back but I think it will take a long time for the fear to finally subside. Too early to think about that much now though.
I drilled, tested wells and handled well control control problems for decades and know better than to get excited when things start going your way. One good data point at the end of a string of bad ones is not a trend. As I used to say, “You can’t extrapolate a point.” But you can make an educated guess at trajectory if you understand the past and future factors that control.
It looks like things may be going in the right direction. Around here people appear to be finally taking things seriously in just the last few days. Before that, not so much.
I built a rough model Saturday night based on hind-cast. The turn we are looking for is in the doubling rate of that model and the current semi-log plot of the data. We are at a doubling rate of about 2.7 to 2.8 now, it has been increasing (to the good) at about 0.04 days per day for about the last week. Not very fast at all. Not very much. Yesterday was a good day but it may be an outlier since maybe people didn’t get tested as much on Sunday. I think we need a doubling rate of about 6 days to turn the corner. That is a long way off unless the improvement accelerates. I don’t expect that since the non hot spots are where the current ones were in time about two weeks ago and there is a lot more of America in those places than the places already turning. It is important to remember that all this biological business of epidemiology runs at exponential rates so rates of change are not steady state and can go down as fast as they go up. It is possible but you have to change behavior, test a lot and quarantine, even have a vaccine to change the trend from up to down.
It is just an opinion like so many, too many, floating around and most of them are WRONG. There has only been a somewhat valid trend to follow for only about two weeks. Everything before that is junk data, junk science, junk management, junk floundering and flailing. We got way behind the 8-ball for almost two months because of CDC’s and FDA’s incompetence. They failed and need to be gutted.
I find it amusing that Birx and Fauci don’t question BS assumptions cranked into their models, but are agast that anyone would accept anecdotal information on potential useful drugs.
I think “they” have access to much better data, tools, and infrastructure while we are guessing based on our best data # new deaths. When “they” say it’s gonna be a bad week, somehow I believe them. Of course it could be just part of the “psy op” so when it’s “Not all that bad after all” we’ll be relieved instead of furious.
She looks like a flight attendant.
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