Poll shows Carnahan, Talent in dead heat

SE Missourian ^ | 10/10/02 | The Associated Press

[byteback]

ST. LOUIS -- A poll conducted for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOV-TV shows a close race in Missouri's U.S. Senate campaign.

The poll conducted by John Zogby will be published in a copyright story in the Sunday edition of the Post-Dispatch and was posted late Friday on stltoday.com, the Post-Dispatch Web site. It shows Republican nominee Jim Talent with 47.1 percent support, compared to 46 percent for incumbent Democrat Jean Carnahan.

Because the statewide survey of 801 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, the results indicated a virtual dead heat.

But Zogby, whose firm conducted the poll last week, said the results tell him that Talent "has some momentum." That's because Carnahan's standing among likely Missouri voters appears to have slipped slightly, Zogby said.

Talent's gains are tied to a dramatic improvement in his standing among St. Louis-area voters, and among men, compared to a poll Zogby took in April, also for KMOV and the Post-Dispatch.

Carnahan's decline in support appears entirely due to her plummeting status among likely male voters, nearly half of whom rated her as "slightly unfavorable" or "very unfavorable." That's up dramatically from 32.3 percent in Zogby's April poll.

The latest poll shows Talent and Carnahan with almost identical favorable ratings: 56.9 percent for him, and 55.9 percent for her. But Talent's rating represents a significant increase from his April rating.

The April poll showed Carnahan leading Talent by 49.6 percent to 43.9 percent.

"What makes this particularly stunning is that we're capturing a Democratic-leaning mood in the rest of the country," Zogby said. "She's got to do something now to stop the slide."

Zogby tied Carnahan's problems, in part, to the success of the attacks on her competency lobbed by Republicans and some Washington analysts.

Carnahan continues to enjoy strong support from women, with about two-thirds giving her a favorable rating.

[byteback]

Looks like Carnahan is starting to slip. 2/3 of women rate here favorably... thank goodness for suffrage.

[Torie]

The problem for Carnahan is that she is incompetent and the voters sense that, and are asking themselves whether they really want her around for four more years. She needs to do more to demonize Talent as a right wing ideologue city slicker corporate lawyerr who will screw the little folks in the small towns every time.

[Gorest Gump]

Zogpiss is not accurate in most state polls and usually slants his results to favor leftists. If you can keep some of the dead from voting this time, Talent should win.

[AntiGuv]

These numbers are identical to the August poll results from Zogby. Me'thinks the article is screwed up. Also, note how it refers back to the April Zogby poll (the only one before Aug.) but not to the two that have been taken since...

[coyotekid]

I don't know about that - he showed Wellstone down 6 points in his last MN state poll.

But don't forget that he was only pollster to predict that Bush would not win the popular vote.

[BlackRazor]

This article is weeks old.

[Coop]

Well, the title is still correct! :-p

[BlackRazor]

But don't forget that he was only pollster to predict that Bush would not win the popular vote.

Almost... the final CBS News poll also showed Gore ahead, and the Harris Group had the race dead even. Also, just because someone is adept at polling national races doesn't necessarily mean they are equally proficient at conducting state-wide races.

[BoomerBob]

To support your observation about Zogby's state polling, his mid-September NJ poll showed Torch up 3 or 4 points when every other poll (including Toricelli's internals) showed Forrester leading by double digits.

Zogby's latest batch of polls numbers are due out this weekend and we'll see how he compares with the other numbers that are out there.

BTW, just a guess but I'll bet he shows Allard up 3-5 points in CO.

BB

[coyotekid]

It will be interesting to hear the Zogby numbers in the SD senate race. He had Johnson +3 last month, which is about the range of the independent polls (all have Johnson up 1-3) -- so it will be interesting to see where things stand. Word from some of my political friends in SD say that Thune has not been running a great campaign. Hope things change.

My feeling is that we'll lose the AR seat, so that probably means having to beat BOTH wellstone and carnahan to take the senate, if thune continues to run short.

curious what people think about that?

[BoomerBob]

If I were to hazard a guess, I would think that SD is still within the MOE but with Johnson ahead a couple of points. I don't like Hutchinson's chances at all in AR.

Personally, I like Talent's chances the best of the takeover opportunities with Coleman a close second (I think Wellstone will be hurt just enough by his senate vote on Iraq).

[GoldenBear2000]

Assuming Sununu and Allard don't let us down and lose, and we Hutchinson's seat, I think picking up two seats among Johnson, Carnahan and Wellstone will be very hard.

[ambrose]

the results indicated a virtual dead heat.

In the context of this race (Carnahan), I'm not sure if I like that pun...

[jaw1964a]

The Zogby numbers will be immaterial by the time election day rolls around, there has yet to be a debate between Talent and Carnahan. Once that happens, watch what will happen to her numbers. Right now it may be an even match, but that will change once Jean is met against Jim.

[KQQL]

No Ping?
No Ding?

:)

[KQQL]

@
Recap of polls:

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Carnahan (D) Talent (R)
KSDK 10/5-10/6 48% 48%
Survey USA 9/26 51% 43%
Zogby 9/16-9/19 48% 40%

[KQQL]

This poll is old......
From August 19,2002

[deport]

Poll was posted Aug. 25...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- © 2002, Southeast Missourian. This story was posted on the site Sunday, August 25, 2002.
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