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Latest from Gloomster Lowry on "The Corner" (actually looking up)
National Review Online ^ | 11/7/06 | Rich Lowry

Posted on 11/07/2006 1:03:01 PM PST by LS

[MY COMMENT: KEEP IN MIND HE'S BEEN A "GOP LOSES BIG GUY FROM THE GET GO," SO THIS IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE]

Some gop chatter... [Rich Lowry] ...from an informal gathering of GOP insiders with their last hunches: They are now optimistic about holding the Harris seat, FL-13. Not counting out Chocola, IN-2, or TX-22. They lament Anne Northup, a famously tough campaigner, is ending on a positive note. (Shrewd GOP strategists have wanted candidates to close negative.) Jean Schmidt, OH-2, apparently headed in the wrong direction. Chabot, OH-1, "flip a coin." A NY insider thinks Sweeney, NY-20, loses (domestic disturbance call will sink him) and Walsh, NY-25, loses, an Appropriations Cardinal who will be washed away by the disaster at the top of the ticket. Bass, NH-2, holds on. Wilson, NM-1, holds on. Gard, WI-8, wins. Sodrel, IN-9, holds on. (If Sodrel and Chocola both win, it could be an OK Republican night.) Simmons, CT-2, wins. Shays, CT-4, probably not (so much for kissing up to the ungrateful New York Times). Doolittle, CA-4, will hold on, and Pombo, CA-11, "flip a coin."


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KEYWORDS: democrats; election; koolaid; republicans
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I already had Sweeney gone, so no biggie. Had Bass losing until earlier this week. Chabot won't lose---I'm next door to his district. I doubt that Schmidt loses, either.

Then you have Ken Mehlman saying GA Dem seat looks good (i.e., we already got it) and that Hawaii 2 looks good (talk about not being on anyone's radar!)

That now puts us in range of six seats to pick up, maybe seven if you include Melancon.

Mehlman also was quite positive on the numbers for the MT and MI SENATE races !!!

1 posted on 11/07/2006 1:03:03 PM PST by LS
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To: LS
As an aside, I think we should be able to post Exit poll data at 5:00pm for the simple reason that it will be everywhere on the Internet and everyone will be talking about it except here at FR because it has been banned.

Just my 2 cents.

2 posted on 11/07/2006 1:04:34 PM PST by Pete
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To: LS

I don't think Schmidt loses OH-02. I still like Irey's chances at the upset tonight. No mention of Bean's seat in Illinois?


3 posted on 11/07/2006 1:04:47 PM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: LS
I knew you'd get this posted before I did. :)

Generally good news, I'd say, and very contrary to the "Dem Wave" blather.

4 posted on 11/07/2006 1:05:34 PM PST by TonyInOhio (VP Cheney: "Kerry was for the joke before he was against it.")
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To: Coop

Not yet. But those at least were on the radar. Hawaii??? No one even knew there WAS a seat in Hawaii.


5 posted on 11/07/2006 1:05:55 PM PST by LS
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To: TonyInOhio

When you combine this with Geraghty's Obi wan info and Mehlman's stuff, we're gonna kick butt.


6 posted on 11/07/2006 1:06:36 PM PST by LS
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To: LS

Lowry and Kristol can both go to hell, I could care less what either one of them thinks.


7 posted on 11/07/2006 1:06:43 PM PST by AKSurprise ("Massachusetts 10,555 sq miles surrounded by reality".)
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To: AKSurprise

Agree, but you miss the point: when Lowry is starting to say that some of his "sources" are more optimistic, there is a titanic RED WAVE about to hit.


8 posted on 11/07/2006 1:07:59 PM PST by LS
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To: LS

I remember reading about Hawaii's seat a month or two ago, but I really didn't think it would be competitive. I guess Lingle's expected strong re-election is pulling whomever's running on the GOP side right along.


9 posted on 11/07/2006 1:08:19 PM PST by Coop (FR = a lotta talk, but little action)
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To: Pete
As an aside, I think we should be able to post Exit poll data at 5:00pm for the simple reason that it will be everywhere on the Internet and everyone will be talking about it except here at FR because it has been banned.

It'll be useless anyway, and the MSM knows it - you can't predict the outcome of a race from exits when 20%-40% of votes are cast absentee or early.

The exits will be junk, junk, junk.

10 posted on 11/07/2006 1:08:22 PM PST by TonyInOhio (VP Cheney: "Kerry was for the joke before he was against it.")
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To: Pete

Why look at the data? They have been infamously way off base in 2000, 2002 and 2004. How do we take the exit polls seriously when you consider the increasing percentage of absentee ballot votes and early votes cannot be included in the exit polls? It also has been said that the Dims love to respond to questions from exit pollsters, but Republicans tend to spurn them. I know I do!!!


11 posted on 11/07/2006 1:08:39 PM PST by rjmeagle (Conservatives= "God, Country & Family"!!!)
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To: AKSurprise

Kristol has always hated Bush because he supported McCainiac. Even predicted a McCainiac win in the primaries.


12 posted on 11/07/2006 1:09:01 PM PST by shrinkermd
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Okay I'm watching CNBC right now and this John Harwood guy is saying he just talked to some republican insider and he said the Dem turnout is pretty big and it's getting ugly here yada yada yada

BS????!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


13 posted on 11/07/2006 1:09:31 PM PST by KavMan
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To: LS

shays ran alot of ads with the mike bloomberg endorsement the final week, and bloomberg is popular around here.


14 posted on 11/07/2006 1:09:40 PM PST by oceanview
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To: AKSurprise

Agree with you 100%. Listened to the FoxNews panel last night. They really p*$$ed me off. I thought that both Fred and Kristol had their heads up their you know what!


15 posted on 11/07/2006 1:10:52 PM PST by rjmeagle (Conservatives= "God, Country & Family"!!!)
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To: LS

Man. That guy is gloomy.


16 posted on 11/07/2006 1:10:59 PM PST by Asclepius (protectionists would outsource our dignity and prosperity in return for illusory job security)
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To: Coop

It would be nice to see Schmidt win OH-2. That would be a dash of salt in the DUmmies wounds, not to mention a thumb in Murtha's eye.


17 posted on 11/07/2006 1:11:31 PM PST by Petronski (Why won't Diebold talk about RYMB.DLL?)
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To: TonyInOhio
And this from the GLOOM CORNER (it's amazing how these bozos can't see the forest for the trees, or read the damn tea leaves):

"Don't put much stock in this, since all very subjective and anecdotal (and turnout scuttle-butt is of even less use than exit polls): Chafee campaign thinks they're definitely getting out the Chafee ID'd voters; turn-out is reported to be high in the "T" in PA that is so important to Santorum; Republicans feeling good about their GOTV in MO and MT."

What they keep missing is that based on 2004, WE HAVE THE TURNOUT AND THEY DON'T and GREAT TURNOUT =GOP VICTORY. TURNOUT IS HEAVY IN VA, AT LEAST AT 2002 LEVELS, WHICH IS HUGE.

18 posted on 11/07/2006 1:12:14 PM PST by LS
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To: KavMan
John Harwood is shrill for the Rats. Proves the point that the news and editorial departments at the WSJ are separate.
19 posted on 11/07/2006 1:12:36 PM PST by The South Texan (The Democrat Party and the leftist (ABCCBSNBCCNN NYLATIMES)media are a criminal enterprise!)
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To: oceanview

Don't know why, but I've never bought into the notion that Shays would lose.


20 posted on 11/07/2006 1:12:52 PM PST by LS
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To: KavMan

The Republican insider could have been from one state campaign. Things are probably prettty ugly in Mass., but no one should care.


21 posted on 11/07/2006 1:12:52 PM PST by HostileTerritory
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To: oceanview
and bloomberg is popular around here.

Wow. Do those people need a life?

22 posted on 11/07/2006 1:13:05 PM PST by Ditto
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To: LS; All

Shays losing?

That does not mesh with what we heard last week.


23 posted on 11/07/2006 1:13:15 PM PST by rwfromkansas (http://xanga.com/rwfromkansas)
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To: KavMan
I have no idea. I am watching Paula Dean make oven-fried potatoes on the Food Network. I am boycotting all news channels because of their poor coverage, and that includes Fox.

I will get what information I need here. I am praying we hold control; the Lord is the one who will decide.

24 posted on 11/07/2006 1:13:26 PM PST by Miss Marple (Lord, please look over Mozart Lover's and Jemian's sons and keep them strong.```````````````````````)
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To: LS

What's up with Sweeney? Domestic disturbance?

Also any info on Eric Dickerson- Indiana 7 or
Diana Irey- PA Murtha's seat?


25 posted on 11/07/2006 1:13:30 PM PST by petercooper (Polls Schmolls.)
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To: rjmeagle; TonyInOhio

RE: exit polls - I think it is useful to look at it and discuss it for two reasons. First, it is going to be everywhere anyway. Second, it 2004, we here at FR were able to debunk it in about 3 minutes.


26 posted on 11/07/2006 1:13:45 PM PST by Pete
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To: LS

who the heck is obi wan in his columns anyway.......Rove?


27 posted on 11/07/2006 1:14:03 PM PST by rwfromkansas (http://xanga.com/rwfromkansas)
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To: KavMan

I will just about promise that when it's over and done, we'll see Dem turnout was LESS than 2002 as a percentage.


28 posted on 11/07/2006 1:14:12 PM PST by LS
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To: Miss Marple
The Lord is the one who will decide.

That's probably the most intelligent thing I've read in two days, including, maybe especially, what I've written. Truer words were never spoken. Thanks for the most important reminder, MM!

29 posted on 11/07/2006 1:15:27 PM PST by twigs
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To: Miss Marple

I am going to do everything I can to get a DVD or something this evening and not watch the news until 9 Central time. I hope I manage.


30 posted on 11/07/2006 1:15:43 PM PST by rwfromkansas (http://xanga.com/rwfromkansas)
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To: rwfromkansas

No one knows, but I doubt it's Rove. I get the sense that Obi wan is an old-line veteran inside the GOP who is behind the scenes---perhaps we've never even seen him on TV.


31 posted on 11/07/2006 1:15:57 PM PST by LS
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To: LS
Are you paying attention to Philly? Damn, they are desperate.

and Chocola both win

I'm highlighting this only because I love his name. I know it's not pronounced "Chocolata" but I like to think it is. LOL

Agreed with you. If a pessimist on NRO is starting to turn it looks good. My main concern, though, remains the fradulent actions of ACORN, the thugs in Philly etc...Then we have the race they supposedly considered theirs for the taking, Wilson, and they are shorting ballots.

32 posted on 11/07/2006 1:16:02 PM PST by Soul Seeker (Kobach: Amnesty is going from an illegal to a legal position, without imposing the original penalty.)
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To: LS
GREAT TURNOUT =GOP VICTORY

Amen.

I'm happy to see the upbeat news about the Soldrel and Chocola races. Those two, along with Anne Northup in KY,are the key to holding the House; I believe if we hold all three, we stay in the majority.

33 posted on 11/07/2006 1:16:14 PM PST by TonyInOhio (VP Cheney: "Kerry was for the joke before he was against it.")
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To: LS
When 2008 rolls around, I want you running a weekly thread about polls and trends and what to expect. Everyone on television now is either an ignoramus, a coward, or a Rat.

Hence my switch to the Food Network. Those oven-fried potatoes looked pretty good. LOL!

34 posted on 11/07/2006 1:16:42 PM PST by Miss Marple (Lord, please look over Mozart Lover's and Jemian's sons and keep them strong.```````````````````````)
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To: LS

Praying you are right LS....praying you are right...


35 posted on 11/07/2006 1:17:30 PM PST by PigRigger (Donate to http://www.AdoptAPlatoon.org - The Troops have our front covered, let's guard their backs!)
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To: LS

"Lowry is starting to say that some of his "sources" are more optimistic, there is a titanic RED WAVE about to hit".


...please help me out here. Who's Lowery and is he indeed optimistic about a possible "RED WAVE"?!


36 posted on 11/07/2006 1:17:35 PM PST by albie
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To: Miss Marple

I am watching Paula Dean make oven-fried potatoes on the Food Network. I am boycotting all news channels because of their poor coverage, and that includes Fox.



Same here and those taters sure looked good!


37 posted on 11/07/2006 1:19:19 PM PST by hipaatwo (Vote for your life. Every vote for a Democrat is a vote against victory.)
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To: LS
WOW....this IS good news and yes, Lowry has been hanging crepe for weeks. Compared to all of his recent articles, this wee blurb is euphoric!
38 posted on 11/07/2006 1:19:44 PM PST by nopardons
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To: LS; NautiNurse
They are now optimistic about holding the Harris seat, FL-13.

That's interesting news. Folks know she's a fighter and they respect that. Most people I know here voted for her because of that.

39 posted on 11/07/2006 1:19:56 PM PST by debg
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To: Soul Seeker
THIS FROM OBI WAN at Geraghty:

One last point - there's been nothing to indicate the Republican wave crested or slowed within the past day or two. Wish we had comprehensive data for one more day, but the big, deep, broad shift to the GOP may have hit at just the right time for this election. All of the following is based on sheer anecdotal evidence; take with as much salt as you like:

*MN-1 looks good for GOP: Dems may have wasted money there *a well-connected guy who watches Michigan like a hawk says Granholm's people are very nervous. (Most MI Freepers say that if Granholm loses, so will Stabencow).

And now I'm hearing appears that VA-10 is in play???!!! This is a Dem seat, right?

40 posted on 11/07/2006 1:20:45 PM PST by LS
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To: Pete

OK...just because it will be everywhere doesn't make it valuable or useful. I am of the opinion that exit polls as a predictive tool is on the way to the dust bin. It has been shown to be extremely unreliable and it favors the Dims AND it depresses Republican turnout due to the MSM calling races BEFORE all voters have voted (Hint: Florida in 2000, especially in the panhandle).


41 posted on 11/07/2006 1:21:14 PM PST by rjmeagle (Conservatives= "God, Country & Family"!!!)
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To: Pete

I don't understand the ban either. Even those who insist the exit polls are useless will be watching them intently. This simply means we'll all have to leave FR every few minutes.


42 posted on 11/07/2006 1:21:22 PM PST by Bogeygolfer
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To: LS
I get it, but I still could care less, cause thats something that anyone that's been manning the phones for the past week would know first hand. Almost every person I spoke with said they would be voting. I live in MA, and was calling people in upstate NY and CT. I'm certain that Shays and Johnson will win in CT. Run Joe Run!
43 posted on 11/07/2006 1:22:23 PM PST by AKSurprise ("Massachusetts 10,555 sq miles surrounded by reality".)
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To: The South Texan

Yea, This guy never has any good news about Republicans.


44 posted on 11/07/2006 1:22:45 PM PST by KavMan
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To: LS

You might be right about turnout being lower than they are hyping it now. Sometimes local officials just try to make it sound like their area is performing well so they say "we expect a heavy turnout" and that is how it is reported in the media. Then when all the votes are in, turnout is nowhere near a record.


45 posted on 11/07/2006 1:23:20 PM PST by TNCMAXQ
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To: LS

NO. Virginia 10th is my district, Frank wolf.


46 posted on 11/07/2006 1:23:59 PM PST by Perdogg (Democratic Party - The political wing of Al Qaida)
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To: Ditto

they understand that NYC is well run, many suburban people work there, or otherwise derive their incomes from the economic engine of NYC. so yes, they appreciate Bloomberg.


47 posted on 11/07/2006 1:24:25 PM PST by oceanview
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To: AKSurprise

good. I was a little surprised that either of them were "in trouble."


48 posted on 11/07/2006 1:25:20 PM PST by LS
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To: petercooper

The Times Union dug up a police incident report involving Sweeney and his wife from 05. They were ahead of the story and the wife came out and said that he did nothing wrong and it was a misunderstanding. At that point, she promised to give permission to release the actual police report.

The upshot is that they never released the report and just stopped taking calls from the press. They just gave up and let this little socialist take the seat.


49 posted on 11/07/2006 1:26:39 PM PST by perfect_rovian_storm (My kool-aid tastes better than your kool-aid.)
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To: rwfromkansas

Relax, Obi Wan is a disciple of the Lord on earth to save the nation. Or something like that.

Insert line here Pulp Fiction of Samuel Jackson happy to here the calvalry is coming.

Trust me it's coming and it's going to be heard loud and clear baby!


50 posted on 11/07/2006 1:27:08 PM PST by romanesq
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