Skip to comments.Latest from Gloomster Lowry on "The Corner" (actually looking up)
Posted on 11/07/2006 1:03:01 PM PST by LS
[MY COMMENT: KEEP IN MIND HE'S BEEN A "GOP LOSES BIG GUY FROM THE GET GO," SO THIS IS REALLY IMPRESSIVE]
Some gop chatter... [Rich Lowry] ...from an informal gathering of GOP insiders with their last hunches: They are now optimistic about holding the Harris seat, FL-13. Not counting out Chocola, IN-2, or TX-22. They lament Anne Northup, a famously tough campaigner, is ending on a positive note. (Shrewd GOP strategists have wanted candidates to close negative.) Jean Schmidt, OH-2, apparently headed in the wrong direction. Chabot, OH-1, "flip a coin." A NY insider thinks Sweeney, NY-20, loses (domestic disturbance call will sink him) and Walsh, NY-25, loses, an Appropriations Cardinal who will be washed away by the disaster at the top of the ticket. Bass, NH-2, holds on. Wilson, NM-1, holds on. Gard, WI-8, wins. Sodrel, IN-9, holds on. (If Sodrel and Chocola both win, it could be an OK Republican night.) Simmons, CT-2, wins. Shays, CT-4, probably not (so much for kissing up to the ungrateful New York Times). Doolittle, CA-4, will hold on, and Pombo, CA-11, "flip a coin."
Then you have Ken Mehlman saying GA Dem seat looks good (i.e., we already got it) and that Hawaii 2 looks good (talk about not being on anyone's radar!)
That now puts us in range of six seats to pick up, maybe seven if you include Melancon.
Mehlman also was quite positive on the numbers for the MT and MI SENATE races !!!
Just my 2 cents.
I don't think Schmidt loses OH-02. I still like Irey's chances at the upset tonight. No mention of Bean's seat in Illinois?
Generally good news, I'd say, and very contrary to the "Dem Wave" blather.
Not yet. But those at least were on the radar. Hawaii??? No one even knew there WAS a seat in Hawaii.
When you combine this with Geraghty's Obi wan info and Mehlman's stuff, we're gonna kick butt.
Lowry and Kristol can both go to hell, I could care less what either one of them thinks.
Agree, but you miss the point: when Lowry is starting to say that some of his "sources" are more optimistic, there is a titanic RED WAVE about to hit.
I remember reading about Hawaii's seat a month or two ago, but I really didn't think it would be competitive. I guess Lingle's expected strong re-election is pulling whomever's running on the GOP side right along.
It'll be useless anyway, and the MSM knows it - you can't predict the outcome of a race from exits when 20%-40% of votes are cast absentee or early.
The exits will be junk, junk, junk.
Why look at the data? They have been infamously way off base in 2000, 2002 and 2004. How do we take the exit polls seriously when you consider the increasing percentage of absentee ballot votes and early votes cannot be included in the exit polls? It also has been said that the Dims love to respond to questions from exit pollsters, but Republicans tend to spurn them. I know I do!!!
Kristol has always hated Bush because he supported McCainiac. Even predicted a McCainiac win in the primaries.
Okay I'm watching CNBC right now and this John Harwood guy is saying he just talked to some republican insider and he said the Dem turnout is pretty big and it's getting ugly here yada yada yada
shays ran alot of ads with the mike bloomberg endorsement the final week, and bloomberg is popular around here.
Agree with you 100%. Listened to the FoxNews panel last night. They really p*$$ed me off. I thought that both Fred and Kristol had their heads up their you know what!
Man. That guy is gloomy.
It would be nice to see Schmidt win OH-2. That would be a dash of salt in the DUmmies wounds, not to mention a thumb in Murtha's eye.
"Don't put much stock in this, since all very subjective and anecdotal (and turnout scuttle-butt is of even less use than exit polls): Chafee campaign thinks they're definitely getting out the Chafee ID'd voters; turn-out is reported to be high in the "T" in PA that is so important to Santorum; Republicans feeling good about their GOTV in MO and MT."
What they keep missing is that based on 2004, WE HAVE THE TURNOUT AND THEY DON'T and GREAT TURNOUT =GOP VICTORY. TURNOUT IS HEAVY IN VA, AT LEAST AT 2002 LEVELS, WHICH IS HUGE.
Don't know why, but I've never bought into the notion that Shays would lose.
The Republican insider could have been from one state campaign. Things are probably prettty ugly in Mass., but no one should care.
Wow. Do those people need a life?
That does not mesh with what we heard last week.
I will get what information I need here. I am praying we hold control; the Lord is the one who will decide.
What's up with Sweeney? Domestic disturbance?
Also any info on Eric Dickerson- Indiana 7 or
Diana Irey- PA Murtha's seat?
RE: exit polls - I think it is useful to look at it and discuss it for two reasons. First, it is going to be everywhere anyway. Second, it 2004, we here at FR were able to debunk it in about 3 minutes.
who the heck is obi wan in his columns anyway.......Rove?
I will just about promise that when it's over and done, we'll see Dem turnout was LESS than 2002 as a percentage.
That's probably the most intelligent thing I've read in two days, including, maybe especially, what I've written. Truer words were never spoken. Thanks for the most important reminder, MM!
I am going to do everything I can to get a DVD or something this evening and not watch the news until 9 Central time. I hope I manage.
No one knows, but I doubt it's Rove. I get the sense that Obi wan is an old-line veteran inside the GOP who is behind the scenes---perhaps we've never even seen him on TV.
and Chocola both win
I'm highlighting this only because I love his name. I know it's not pronounced "Chocolata" but I like to think it is. LOL
Agreed with you. If a pessimist on NRO is starting to turn it looks good. My main concern, though, remains the fradulent actions of ACORN, the thugs in Philly etc...Then we have the race they supposedly considered theirs for the taking, Wilson, and they are shorting ballots.
I'm happy to see the upbeat news about the Soldrel and Chocola races. Those two, along with Anne Northup in KY,are the key to holding the House; I believe if we hold all three, we stay in the majority.
Hence my switch to the Food Network. Those oven-fried potatoes looked pretty good. LOL!
Praying you are right LS....praying you are right...
"Lowry is starting to say that some of his "sources" are more optimistic, there is a titanic RED WAVE about to hit".
...please help me out here. Who's Lowery and is he indeed optimistic about a possible "RED WAVE"?!
I am watching Paula Dean make oven-fried potatoes on the Food Network. I am boycotting all news channels because of their poor coverage, and that includes Fox.
Same here and those taters sure looked good!
That's interesting news. Folks know she's a fighter and they respect that. Most people I know here voted for her because of that.
One last point - there's been nothing to indicate the Republican wave crested or slowed within the past day or two. Wish we had comprehensive data for one more day, but the big, deep, broad shift to the GOP may have hit at just the right time for this election. All of the following is based on sheer anecdotal evidence; take with as much salt as you like:
*MN-1 looks good for GOP: Dems may have wasted money there *a well-connected guy who watches Michigan like a hawk says Granholm's people are very nervous. (Most MI Freepers say that if Granholm loses, so will Stabencow).
And now I'm hearing appears that VA-10 is in play???!!! This is a Dem seat, right?
OK...just because it will be everywhere doesn't make it valuable or useful. I am of the opinion that exit polls as a predictive tool is on the way to the dust bin. It has been shown to be extremely unreliable and it favors the Dims AND it depresses Republican turnout due to the MSM calling races BEFORE all voters have voted (Hint: Florida in 2000, especially in the panhandle).
I don't understand the ban either. Even those who insist the exit polls are useless will be watching them intently. This simply means we'll all have to leave FR every few minutes.
Yea, This guy never has any good news about Republicans.
You might be right about turnout being lower than they are hyping it now. Sometimes local officials just try to make it sound like their area is performing well so they say "we expect a heavy turnout" and that is how it is reported in the media. Then when all the votes are in, turnout is nowhere near a record.
NO. Virginia 10th is my district, Frank wolf.
they understand that NYC is well run, many suburban people work there, or otherwise derive their incomes from the economic engine of NYC. so yes, they appreciate Bloomberg.
good. I was a little surprised that either of them were "in trouble."
The Times Union dug up a police incident report involving Sweeney and his wife from 05. They were ahead of the story and the wife came out and said that he did nothing wrong and it was a misunderstanding. At that point, she promised to give permission to release the actual police report.
The upshot is that they never released the report and just stopped taking calls from the press. They just gave up and let this little socialist take the seat.
Relax, Obi Wan is a disciple of the Lord on earth to save the nation. Or something like that.
Insert line here Pulp Fiction of Samuel Jackson happy to here the calvalry is coming.
Trust me it's coming and it's going to be heard loud and clear baby!
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