I agree. Judging by the symmetry this morning, I wouldn't be too shocked if it was up to category two wind speed by the 11:00 advisory.
Posted on 07/03/2008 7:20:52 AM PDT by nwctwx
Thanks for the ping!
Now right there is man made global, globes......
Of course it only goes back to when they started tracking these storms and that’s just a few years. As technology improves so will the data gathered for each storm. Keep in mind that a lot of people weren’t around for some of the other deadly storms. Part of the problem with Katrina was that a lot of people didn’t remember Camille or Betsy. Katrina was the third most intense landfalling hurricane after the 1935 Labor Day storm and Camille.
Looks like models initialized it at 80kts, so high cat 1.... looks better than that though. We’ll see what they do at 11.
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 07, 2008
Bertha’s satellite presentation has become more impressive during
the last 6 hours with a distinct eye now apparent. The initial
intensity is increased to 80 kt in line with the consensus of the
various satellite estimates. In the short-term...there are no
apparent environmental factors which would inhibit further
intensification today and the official forecast now calls for
Bertha to become a category two hurricane. However...the intensity
forecast becomes more uncertain beyond 36 hours as the global
models disagree on the details of the development of an upper-level
trough over the western Atlantic. The GFS forecast the most
unfavorable environment with Bertha essentially running into the
trough. Not surprisingly...the SHIPS and lgem statistical
models...which include atmospheric information from the GFS...show
considerable weakening. Meanwhile...the UKMET...GFDL...and HWRF
models shows a much more favorable environment and delay weakening
until the very end of the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast leans more towards the higher shear scenario indicated by
the GFS but does not weaken Bertha as fast as the SHIPS and lgem
models.
There has been little change in the hurricane’s heading during the
last 6 hours with the initial motion estimate essentially
unchanged... 285/13. However...Bertha is beginning to encounter a
weakness in the subtropical ridge which should result in a gradual
turn towards the north and a reduction in forward speed. The
models generally agree on this evolution...but there remains some
spread amongst the models on what longitude Bertha will turn north.
While the degree of the turn has important implications regarding
potential impacts to Bermuda...it is much to early to determine if
Bertha will actually threaten that island. However...interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The new
official forecast is nudged slightly eastward toward the track
model consensus.
Forecast positions and Max winds
initial 07/1500z 19.6n 51.3w 80 kt
12hr VT 08/0000z 20.3n 53.3w 90 kt
24hr VT 08/1200z 21.2n 55.5w 90 kt
36hr VT 09/0000z 22.1n 57.5w 85 kt
48hr VT 09/1200z 23.2n 59.2w 80 kt
72hr VT 10/1200z 25.5n 62.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 11/1200z 28.5n 63.5w 70 kt
120hr VT 12/1200z 31.0n 63.5w 70 kt
$$
forecaster Rhome
Public advisory at 11:00 says 90 mph and forecast to strengthen next 24 hours. So, didn’t quite make it yet.
And I was really thinking we just weren’t going to have a hurricane season. Hope we don’t get much, the wetland preserves where I like to go take photos have really just grown back up!
LOL Amelia, you must live near me—I was thinking the same thing!
The absence of Indianola and St. Mary's, once thriving Texas port cities, just might give them a clue. Although they were hit with a sort of back to back slam dunk, those weren't supposed to be bad storms. The remaining population picked up and moved.
Does make you wonder about those in Galveston eh?
I still think it's going to curve before it gets to the U.S., but I've been wrong before...
Those port cities weren’t located at the mouth of the Mississippi either.
Bertha Bump Boogy...;0)
Ah, well you’re right, SE FL and Coast GA are just a hop skip and a jump for these silly storms!!
susie
and no Allen!
and yall have no “windbreakers” to stop them from crossing over into the Gulf.
That’s right!
Thanks, NN. I ate some chocolate fudge, just in case.
Time to start stashing the pop tarts and tuna fish!
Trilla
Check MEOSAT 8 , IR loop and you will see that these systems
are stretches out all the way across Africa,,,
One after the other following Bertha,,,
This looks like it could be a very bad year like 1957
or even 1900 :
Scary Stuff...:0/
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