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Tropical Storm Dolly
NOAA/NHC ^ | 20 July 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 07/20/2008 8:36:53 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Newly formed Tropical Storm Dolly over the NW Caribbean Sea near 18.4N 84.2W. 1008 MB at 11AM this morning. Max sustained winds 40KT, gusts 50KT, moving NW at 15KT.

Caribbean Buoys

Wunderground Tropical Updates

Visible Satellite image

Infrared Sat Loop


TOPICS: Front Page News
KEYWORDS: dolly; hurricane; tropical
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To: steveegg

Glad you could make it for this one!

Actually having to work right now. :(


601 posted on 07/23/2008 6:41:14 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Invert the 5-4 and you have no rights.)
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To: NautiNurse
Serious westward (specifically west-southwest) movement this time around...

000
URNT12 KNHC 231320
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/13:17:40Z
B. 25 deg 53 min N
  096 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2785 m
D. 70 kt
E. 175 deg 10 nm
F. 265 deg 071 kt
G. 174 deg 009 nm
H. 965 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. C20
M. CLOSED
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY        OB 22
MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 83 KT N QUAD 13:23:00 Z
SMALL BREAKS IN EYEWALL S SIDE
;
I suspect the previous fix was a bit north of where it should have been.
602 posted on 07/23/2008 6:42:47 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

‘Tis why I didn’t run with the prelim.


603 posted on 07/23/2008 6:43:35 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
Northern eyewall is breaking open.


604 posted on 07/23/2008 6:49:25 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: SouthTexas

Wish I had good news for South Padre Island - TMA suggests a late-afternoon landfall at South Padre Island.


605 posted on 07/23/2008 6:51:07 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

That’s somewhat encouraging.


606 posted on 07/23/2008 6:52:21 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: SouthTexas
FOX News is reporting an apartment roof collapse on So. Padre Island.

Unfortunately, they have a weather babe outside in the storm reporting.

607 posted on 07/23/2008 7:02:10 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

If it’s not merely attenuation; there is a band over the radar station.


608 posted on 07/23/2008 7:05:15 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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9 am position estimate from the NHC...

At 9 am CDT the center of Hurricane Dolly was estimated near
latitude 25.9 north...longitude 96.9 west or about 40 miles...65
km...east of Brownsville Texas.

$$
Forecaster Avila

609 posted on 07/23/2008 7:08:52 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse; steveegg
Off to Corpus for some "on scene" reporting from the top of the harbor bridge!

No, I'm not going over that bridge today.

610 posted on 07/23/2008 7:12:05 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Invert the 5-4 and you have no rights.)
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To: SouthTexas

Don’t get blown away.


611 posted on 07/23/2008 7:12:52 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

The rain and the wind seem to be easing up some.


612 posted on 07/23/2008 7:16:27 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: SouthTexas

Safe travels...


613 posted on 07/23/2008 7:16:41 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: steveegg

The break in the eyewall is visible on Corpus Christi radar.


614 posted on 07/23/2008 7:18:38 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse
Several years ago, don-o and I were singing during a hurricane, and we broke the internet.

I have worked hard to get better. Look at the link on my profile for proof

615 posted on 07/23/2008 7:18:55 AM PDT by don-o (Have you donated to FR? If not, why not?)
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To: SouthTexas

Stay safe.


616 posted on 07/23/2008 7:19:17 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

Thanks for your local update. Dolly is taking her sweet time today.


617 posted on 07/23/2008 7:19:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: don-o; NautiNurse

So sing already :-)


618 posted on 07/23/2008 7:19:59 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

Dolly is definitely taking her time. She’s also jinking like a P-51 in a dogfight.


619 posted on 07/23/2008 7:23:28 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

Looks like DSolly is making a move to the north looking at the radar.


620 posted on 07/23/2008 7:37:50 AM PDT by eastforker (Get-R-Done and then Bring-Em- Home)
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To: eastforker
I see Wunderground labeled Dolly a Cat 2.


621 posted on 07/23/2008 7:41:16 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: eastforker
Looks like Dolly is making a move to the north looking at the radar.

That's what the Hunters are showing too...

000
URNT12 KNHC 231436
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042008
A. 23/14:17:00Z
B. 25 deg 59 min N
  096 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2798 m
D. 60 kt
E. 007 deg 10 nm
F. 094 deg 081 kt
G. 006 deg 013 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 13 C/ 3054 m
J. 17 C/ 3052 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. C20
M. OPEN N
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1904A DOLLY        OB 27
MAX FL WIND 86 KT NE QUAD 10:31:20 Z
;

Major changes over the previous hour:

- Eye is opening up on the north end (sorry about doubting you, NN).
- Motion over the last hour nearly north (343 degrees) at 6.2 mph.
- Pressure down another mb to 964.

622 posted on 07/23/2008 7:41:51 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

The 8am LBAR model run has Dolly behaving more like ‘prairiecane’ ‘07 Erin than ‘67 Beulah: touring the midwest after she comes ashore.

Some centexers might see 3” over the next few days.

Although if she pulls a ‘78 Amelia centex might see an end
to the drought.


623 posted on 07/23/2008 7:42:11 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake

If we can keep the wind down, Central Texas can have her. We’ve had too much rain here in the upper-Midwest (500-year-flood type rains in Wisconsin).


624 posted on 07/23/2008 7:45:32 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg
Steve, what path would you infer from this:

?

625 posted on 07/23/2008 7:53:13 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: txflake
I'm not that good. I'm barely a semi-competent amateur on short-term analysis.

Tornado Warning in the Corpus Christi area.

626 posted on 07/23/2008 7:54:33 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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Heads up down, Corpus Christi...

The National Weather Service in Corpus Christi has issued a

* Tornado Warning for... 
Central Nueces County in south Texas
Southeastern San Patricio County in south Texas

* Until 1015 am CDT

* At 934 am CDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado just east of 
Ingleside... moving west at 36 mph.

* The tornado will be near... 
Portland by 950 am CDT... 
Corpus Christi North Beach by 955 am CDT... 
downtown Corpus Christi... Cole Park by 1000 am CDT... 
Corpus Christi International Airport by 1010 am CDT... 

When a Tornado Warning is issued based on Doppler radar... it means
that strong rotation has been detected in the storm. A tornado may
already be on the ground... or is expected to develop shortly. If you
are in the path of this dangerous storm... move indoors and to the
lowest level of the building. Stay away from windows. If driving... do
not seek shelter under a Highway overpass.

The safest place to be during a tornado is in a basement. Get under a
workbench or other piece of sturdy furniture. If no basement is
available... seek shelter on the lowest floor of the building in an
interior hallway or room such as a closet. Use blankets or pillows to
cover your body and always stay away from windows.

If in Mobile homes or vehicles... evacuate them and get inside a
substantial shelter. If no shelter is available... lie flat in the
nearest ditch or other low spot and cover your head with your hands.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT Wednesday evening
for south Texas.

Lat... Lon 2766 9762 2791 9761 2790 9713 2784 9717
      2783 9712 2784 9710 2781 9718 2780 9710
      2774 9710 2773 9711 2771 9717 2778 9713
      2779 9722 2786 9728 2785 9748 2785 9749
      2784 9739 2783 9737 2775 9737 2771 9726
time... Mot... loc 1439z 092deg 31kt 2781 9721

Tmt

627 posted on 07/23/2008 7:56:22 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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Dolly is now a Category 2 hurricane...

Hurricane Dolly Public Advisory Number 13

Statement as of 10:00 am CDT on July 23, 2008

...Dolly very near the Texas coast with 100 mph winds...eye should
cross the coast in a few hours... 
 
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the coast of Texas from
Brownsville to Corpus Christi...and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the border between Mexico
and the United States.  Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.
 
At 10 am CDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning north of Port
O'Connor has been discontinued.  A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect from north of Corpus Christi to Port O'Connor.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from La
Pesca to south of Rio San Fernando.
 
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
 
At 1000 am CDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Dolly was located
by radar and a reconnaissance plane near latitude 26.0 north...
longitude 97.0 west or about 30 miles...50 km... east-northeast of
Brownsville Texas.
 
Dolly is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph...11 km/hr.
A west-northwestward motion with a slight decrease in forward speed
is expected later today.  On the forecast track...the eye of
Hurricane Dolly will be crossing the coast near the Texas/Mexico
border in a few hours. Persons are advised not to venture outdoors
during the relative calm of the eye because winds will soon
increase quite rapidly.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph...160
km/hr...with higher gusts.  Dolly is a category two hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Stronger winds...especially in
gusts...are likely on high rise buildings. Some additional
strengthening is possible before landfall.
 
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km...from
the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140
miles...220 km. Port Isabel Airport just measured 54 mph...87 km/hr
sustained winds with gusts to 70 mph...113 km/hr. An unofficial 
observer just east of matamoros Mexico reported sustained winds of
65 mph...105 km/hr with gusts to 119 mph...192 km/hr.   
 
Minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force reconnaissance
plane was is 964 mb...28.47 inches.
Dolly is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 10
inches...with isolated amounts of 15 inches...over portions of south
Texas and northeastern Mexico over the next few days.  These rains
will likely cause widespread flooding across portions of south
Texas and northeast Mexico.
 
Coastal storm surge flooding of 6 to 8 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall.
 
Isolated tornadoes are possible over portions of south Texas today
and tonight.
 
Repeating the 1000 am CDT position...26.0 N...97.0 W.  Movement
toward...northwest near 7 mph.  Maximum sustained winds...100 mph.
Minimum central pressure...964 mb.
 
Intermediate advisories will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 1200 PM CDT and 200 PM CDT followed by the next complete
advisory at 400 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Avila

628 posted on 07/23/2008 8:01:50 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: steveegg

TWC calling her a cat2


629 posted on 07/23/2008 8:02:25 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: steveegg

Cat.2,wish it would just go away.Is it stilled stalled?


630 posted on 07/23/2008 8:03:40 AM PDT by fatima
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To: steveegg

Jim Cantori is commenting on the coolness of the water. He’s right. The rain is cold.


631 posted on 07/23/2008 8:05:29 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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The current discussion...

Hurricane Dolly Discussion Number 13

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 23, 2008
 
Dolly is strengthening. The minimum pressure has dropped to 964 mb
with a peak flight level wind of 92 knots. Doppler winds from the
NWS radar at Brownsville have been oscillating between 95 and 109
knots around 2000 feet altitude...and the satellite presentation has
improved significantly since yesterday. It has now a ragged eye on
both vis and IR images.   Initial intensity has been increased to
85 knots...making Dolly a category two hurricane on the
Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is
possible during the next several hours before landfall.
 
Radar and aircraft fixes indicate that Dolly is moving on a general
northwest track or 305 degrees at about 6 knots. However...Dolly is
expected to slow down a little...followed by a gradual turn more to
the west-northwest later today. This track should bring the core of
the hurricane inland early this afternoon. Thereafter...a
developing mid-level ridge over the western United States
should force the cyclone on a more westward track.
 
Should Dolly move more slowly over extreme southern Texas than we
are forecasting...it is possible for it to produce even more
rainfall than we are currently predicting.
 
 
Forecast positions and Max winds
 
initial      23/1500z 26.0n  97.0w    85 kt
 12hr VT     24/0000z 26.5n  97.8w    80 kt...inland
 24hr VT     24/1200z 27.0n  99.5w    45 kt...inland
 36hr VT     25/0000z 27.0n 101.0w    25 kt...remnant low
 48hr VT     25/1200z...dissipated
 
$$
forecaster Avila

632 posted on 07/23/2008 8:07:05 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: fatima

It’s not been bad yet. If we could get her to spread the water this could actually help a lot of drought areas. We don’t need it.


633 posted on 07/23/2008 8:07:53 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

Any word on things at Mustang Island? We have family who are supposed to vacation there beginning Sunday.


634 posted on 07/23/2008 8:09:19 AM PDT by twntaipan (Dump the Drill-nothing Democrats: Lower fuel costs in the process!)
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To: CindyDawg
Jim Cantori is commenting on the coolness of the water. He’s right. The rain is cold.

Good from the tropical standpoint; not so good from the tornadic standpoint.

Keep your eyes peeled.

635 posted on 07/23/2008 8:09:34 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: twntaipan

Far too early for damage estimates. Hurricane Dolly has not even made landfall. Perhaps tomorrow for your info.


636 posted on 07/23/2008 8:11:12 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: fatima

It’s jinking around, and the last jink was more north than west.


637 posted on 07/23/2008 8:11:35 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: CindyDawg

I can see where you are on the weather channel.Glad it’s not bad for you:)


638 posted on 07/23/2008 8:12:57 AM PDT by fatima
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
Category 2 Hurricane Dolly

100 mph winds...eye should cross the coast in a few hours.

Movement toward northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds 100 mph. Minimum central pressure 964 mb.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

639 posted on 07/23/2008 8:15:04 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: twntaipan

Too soon to tell. We are waiting to see where she will come in.


640 posted on 07/23/2008 8:15:21 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: fatima

I’m in Port Brownsville. I’m about 19 miles from SPI. So far what I see reported there is about what I’m seeing here.


641 posted on 07/23/2008 8:17:30 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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Plenty of open eyewall now. FOX News reporting more roof damage occurring on So. Padre Island.


642 posted on 07/23/2008 8:18:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: steveegg

Well, jink on past Cindy and up to me!


643 posted on 07/23/2008 8:19:48 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Pebcak

Hi ya, Pebcak. Our property is on the high ground. We do plan to take off Saturday on a short trip up-state. As long as we can get out of the park I think we’ll be OK.

(she says....)

:^)


644 posted on 07/23/2008 8:25:58 AM PDT by prairiebreeze (I didn't leave the republicans, they left me.)
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To: txflake
Want me to put on a pot of spaghetti.?
645 posted on 07/23/2008 8:27:28 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

I need to call it a morning; I’ll likely be back sometime before landfall.


646 posted on 07/23/2008 8:35:25 AM PDT by steveegg (I am John Doe, and a monthly donor)
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To: NautiNurse

You asked me about winds earlier. I told you NE. The guy on the weather channel is freporting NW???? How is it west? West is toward Mexico which are the way the clouds are going.


647 posted on 07/23/2008 8:40:09 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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To: CindyDawg

As close as you are to the storm center now, it could be either from NE, N or NW at this point in relatively close proximity.


648 posted on 07/23/2008 8:44:07 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: CindyDawg

Port Isabel appears to be parallel with the south end of the eyewall now. It’s going to be close if Dolly continues creeping NW.


649 posted on 07/23/2008 8:55:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Plants are people too)
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To: NautiNurse

Yeah, we may have some water ptoblems but it looks like we may have dodged another. If she will go up just a little more she can come into an unpopulated area.


650 posted on 07/23/2008 9:02:06 AM PDT by CindyDawg
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