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TS Gustav & TS Hanna
NOAA/NHC ^ | August 28, 2008 | NOAA/NHC

Posted on 08/28/2008 8:25:49 AM PDT by NautiNurse

The 2008 peak of hurricane season is ramping up with Gustav and Hanna. The two storms pose threats to the U.S. At least 22 deaths in Hispanola are attributed to Gustav to date, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect for Jamaica. Tropical Storm Hanna has formed in the Atlantic.

Gustav
Hanna


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Buoy Data: Western Caribbean
                  FL and East GOM
                  Western GOM
East Caribbean
West Atlantic
Florida

Forecast Models

Category Wind Speed Barometric Pressure Storm Surge Damage Potential
Tropical
Depression
< 39 mph
< 34 kts
    Minimal
Tropical
Storm
39 - 73 mph
34 - 63 kts
    Minimal
Hurricane 1
(Weak)
74 - 95 mph
64 - 82 kts
28.94" or more
980.02 mb or more
4.0' - 5.0'
1.2 m - 1.5 m
Minimal damage to vegetation
Hurricane 2
(Moderate)
96 - 110 mph
83 - 95 kts
28.50" - 28.93"
965.12 mb - 979.68 mb
6.0' - 8.0'
1.8 m - 2.4 m
Moderate damage to houses
Hurricane 3
(Strong)
111 - 130 mph
96 - 112 kts
27.91" - 28.49"
945.14 mb - 964.78 mb
9.0' - 12.0'
2.7 m - 3.7 m
Extensive damage to small buildings
Hurricane 4
(Very strong)
131 - 155 mph
113 - 135 kts
27.17" - 27.90"
920.08 mb - 944.80 mb
13.0' - 18.0'
3.9 m - 5.5 m
Extreme structural damage
Hurricane 5
(Devastating)
Greater than 155 mph
Greater than 135 kts
Less than 27.17"
Less than 920.08 mb
Greater than 18.0'
Greater than 5.5m
Catastrophic building failures possible


TOPICS: Breaking News; Front Page News; US: Alabama; US: Florida; US: Louisiana; US: Mississippi; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: 2008dncconvention; 2008rncconvention; gustav; hannah; hurricane; predictions; tropical
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To: NautiNurse

A vast majority of storms do curve north and then northeast in the GOM. The pattern is not as favorable this go around for that to happen because of the high pressure position to the north. The jog north last night, probably partly caused by intensification probably makes it a bit harder to go into TX. The model consistency for LA has been something..


501 posted on 08/30/2008 8:45:56 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: Amelia

In general the EURO is the best model out there. That doesn’t make it right though..


502 posted on 08/30/2008 8:48:53 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx

bttt


503 posted on 08/30/2008 8:50:58 AM PDT by Guenevere
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To: CindyDawg; eastforker

Gustav must be a Nascar fan with all these models predicting a left turn.


504 posted on 08/30/2008 8:57:11 AM PDT by SouthTexas (Invert the 5-4 and you have no rights.)
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To: nwctwx
The model consistency for LA has been something...

Uncanny!

505 posted on 08/30/2008 8:58:43 AM PDT by Petronski (Why is the Democrat party so damn sexist?)
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To: kalee

nope, I must say that I am happy we are not leaving this weekend. Saves hotel rooms for evac needs, and gives us a chance to get woofie on a plane flight. He’s very excited about going to Grandma and Papa’s house and playing ball chase with his Auntie and Uncle Lacey and Toby...and giving kissies to his kitty Aunties.


506 posted on 08/30/2008 9:08:59 AM PDT by Cailleach
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To: rodguy911
Speaking of Nagin, he better hurry on over to the Superdome so he can block Oprah from getting in there and seeing all those dead bodies!!!!!!
507 posted on 08/30/2008 9:09:15 AM PDT by 4everontheRight ("Boy, those French: They have a different word for everything! "- Steve Martin)
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To: 4everontheRight

Do you mean the PooperDome?


508 posted on 08/30/2008 9:12:25 AM PDT by Petronski (Why is the Democrat party so damn sexist?)
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To: 4everontheRight

I hope he stays off the tv this time.


509 posted on 08/30/2008 9:14:32 AM PDT by rodguy911 (LAND OF THE FREE BECAUSE OF THE BRAVE)
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To: Petronski

I think it is further east right now than it should have been... so maybe a track back closer to New Orleans is possible. Still wouldn’t expect the storm to move due north or northeast prior to landfall.


510 posted on 08/30/2008 9:22:46 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx

Thanks for the analysis. Very helpful.


511 posted on 08/30/2008 9:29:19 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: Petronski

“They” said that they super dome will not be open for evacuees this time around....


512 posted on 08/30/2008 9:31:52 AM PDT by DrewsMum (Proud member of the Grand OIL Party!)
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To: NautiNurse

If you will read his current blog you will notice that I am not the only one to take him to task on that admonition and description about New Orleans; he essentially apologizes for stepping out of his proper role.

He presents as a professional weather analyst not as a pundit, sociologist, economics expert or politician.

So far he has been very accurate in his storm assesment on Gustav especially the significance and importance of the loop current influence but he should stick to the facts and stay out of the do-gooder kitchen.


513 posted on 08/30/2008 9:39:05 AM PDT by Old Professer (The critic writes with rapier pen, dips it twice, and writes again.)
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To: NautiNurse

Beautiful stadium effect on the eye now as it nears the Isle of Youth.


514 posted on 08/30/2008 9:39:16 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: Amelia

“There are people annoyed?”

Yeah. Apparently there are some with the “womans’ place is in the home/kitchen attitude”...sickening...


515 posted on 08/30/2008 9:47:47 AM PDT by DrewsMum (Proud member of the Grand OIL Party!)
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To: NautiNurse

Mandatory evacs in S Louisiana parishes.

http://www.wwltv.com/


516 posted on 08/30/2008 9:49:52 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: abb

WWL TV (NOLA) live streaming newscast
http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=57429&live=yes


517 posted on 08/30/2008 9:52:32 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: abb

Many thanks for the valuable links. This routine is all to familiar. One difference this time is mandatory evacuation with 48 hours before anticipated landfall.


518 posted on 08/30/2008 9:55:01 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: Amelia
There are people annoyed?

Most of the annoyance I've seen is from disappointed Mitt-heads.

My wife and daughter are supposed to go to a marine biology "camp" on the Gulf the week after next. I hope that all of these turn out to be big disappointments to the cheerleading media.

519 posted on 08/30/2008 9:57:32 AM PDT by Ingtar (Go Palin! Oh, I supppose the other guy too. '08)
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To: nwctwx

the 2pm advisory should bring Gustav close to if not cat 4 strength. seeing 127kt flight level winds now.


520 posted on 08/30/2008 9:57:45 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: nwctwx

wow, now 141kt flight level.


521 posted on 08/30/2008 10:02:25 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: NautiNurse

Chocolate Mayor to have presser momentarily.


522 posted on 08/30/2008 10:02:36 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: nwctwx
A deadly healthy storm.


523 posted on 08/30/2008 10:03:31 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: abb

This will be one of the most political hurricanes ever.

The politicians will be tripping over each other to use this hurricane to promote themselves or their party.

Ugh.

My prayers to all those in the path of this hurricane.


524 posted on 08/30/2008 10:07:00 AM PDT by Lijahsbubbe
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To: Lijahsbubbe

Map of projected target area.

http://maps.google.com/maps?t=p&utm_campaign=en&utm_medium=ha&utm_source=en-ha-na-us-sk-gm&utm_term=topographical%20maps


525 posted on 08/30/2008 10:07:59 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: nwctwx
Key West Radar:


526 posted on 08/30/2008 10:15:24 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: nwctwx

Just saw this on another forum...

HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
120 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS
NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV AN
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED AT ABOUT 200 PM
EDT TO MODIFY THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITIES. THE SPECIAL
PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC
ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


527 posted on 08/30/2008 10:27:00 AM PDT by Cailleach
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To: Admin Moderator

Could you update the headline to Category 4?


528 posted on 08/30/2008 10:28:00 AM PDT by Petronski (Why is the Democrat party so damn sexist?)
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To: NautiNurse

12z HWRF
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/hwrf/12zhwrf500mbHGHTPMSLnest2054.gif


529 posted on 08/30/2008 10:28:44 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: NautiNurse

Sorry, didn’t mean to step on your toes here. I just asked the admin to update the title to Cat 4. I hope that is acceptable to you.


530 posted on 08/30/2008 10:28:45 AM PDT by Petronski (Why is the Democrat party so damn sexist?)
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To: Cailleach

not surprising..


531 posted on 08/30/2008 10:30:20 AM PDT by nwctwx
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To: abb; abbi_normal_2; aberaussie; alancarp; Alas Babylon!; Alia; Alice in Wonderland; ...
Hurricane Gustav Category 4. Winds 145 mph. 945 mb.


On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here-->

532 posted on 08/30/2008 10:31:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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Per 527......
NO!


533 posted on 08/30/2008 10:33:35 AM PDT by yield 2 the right
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To: Petronski

I did the same. Thanks.


534 posted on 08/30/2008 10:33:50 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: NautiNurse

....... Prayers for those in the path.........


535 posted on 08/30/2008 10:34:20 AM PDT by tiredoflaundry (McCain/Palin '08)
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To: NautiNurse

Chocolate Mayor presser ongoing at this time. Discussing curfews, etc.
http://www.wwltv.com/video/?nvid=57429&live=yes


536 posted on 08/30/2008 10:35:36 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: NautiNurse

Thanks for the ping and all of your hard work on the hurricane threads. Prayers for all of you in Gustav’s path.


537 posted on 08/30/2008 10:36:15 AM PDT by LA Woman3 ("Yes We Can!" Bob The Builder)
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To: NautiNurse

I woke up with a headache this morning, usually means a change in weather. It’ supposed to be windy too, gusts up to 30, and we’re on the Atlantic coast of FL!
susei


538 posted on 08/30/2008 10:36:37 AM PDT by brytlea (CHANGE! --all we'll have left in our pockets if Obama is elected.)
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To: NautiNurse

Header updated. 145 mph? Yeesh.


539 posted on 08/30/2008 10:36:43 AM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: NautiNurse

Not good. Model runs at 2PM EDT correct? Say hello to $5/gal gas. Fill those tanks up folks!!!


540 posted on 08/30/2008 10:36:51 AM PDT by Tuxedo (Ebony and Ivory... not a really good choice for our country...)
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To: Admin Moderator

The Isle of Youth and West Cuba are in trouble.


541 posted on 08/30/2008 10:38:43 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: NautiNurse

I was hoping this was not going to go this way.

And right now I’m listening to the great Ray Nagin who is barely cognizent of the details of the preparation.


542 posted on 08/30/2008 10:39:31 AM PDT by Bahbah (Typical white person-Snow white)
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To: Cailleach

Thought you were going to the Fair? What are you doing online still?


543 posted on 08/30/2008 10:41:07 AM PDT by kalee
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To: eastforker

Gosh, better see how my nephew in Galveston is doing. And, I forgot but my niece is in NO, back at college. Sheesh, wonder if she’s evacuated yet?
susie


544 posted on 08/30/2008 10:41:19 AM PDT by brytlea (CHANGE! --all we'll have left in our pockets if Obama is elected.)
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To: Bahbah

Nagin saying “now is the time to start shutting the tourist activity down.”

Seems a touch late to me, considering what the models were saying Thursday.

Harrod’s Casino shutting down at 4? How about shutting it down at 2?


545 posted on 08/30/2008 10:43:15 AM PDT by Petronski (Why is the Democrat party so damn sexist?)
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To: Bahbah
the great Ray Nagin who is barely cognizent of the details of the preparation.

Do you mean the fact he wasn't aware of special needs, including wheelchairs for evacuation? Fortunately, a mature adult took over the microphone. Nagin was grinning like the fool that he is.

546 posted on 08/30/2008 10:44:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: All

Per wltv.com....

BREAKING NEWS: City of New Orleans.

Nagin to tourists: It’s time for you to go
Nagin - Mandatory evacuation likely to be called later today
Nagin: Strongly encourages everyone to evacuate now.
No need to register any longer for bus service, just go to pickup points.


547 posted on 08/30/2008 10:46:17 AM PDT by LA Woman3 ("Yes We Can!" Bob The Builder)
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To: LA Woman3
Hey you!

Does America's Chocolate Mayor have drivers for his busses this time?


548 posted on 08/30/2008 10:47:52 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Sarah Barracuda!)
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To: NautiNurse

It’s quite evident there is a much more intense sense of urgency compared to three years ago among those who must make everything work.

There’s nothing like a little flash of Hell (Katrina) to make folks behave differently.


549 posted on 08/30/2008 10:48:12 AM PDT by abb ("What ISN'T in the news is often more important than what IS." Ed Biersmith, 1942 -)
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To: kalee

Fair didn’t open until noon. We are leaving in 15 min.

Fried, chocolate dipped bacon, here I come!!! No...seriously, I do the fried cheddar cheese, and that’s about it. Tried fried choco dipped cheesecake at Rabbit Fest back in May...couldn’t finish it...

Smoked Turkey Legs, that’s another story. nom nom nom


550 posted on 08/30/2008 10:48:35 AM PDT by Cailleach
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