Skip to comments.The obama is toast thread, how many states will he carry?
Posted on 09/09/2008 9:18:35 PM PDT by Snurple
Obama is going to get beat, I have no doubt about it but just how bad. How many states will obummmer carry?
It all depends on the number of verbal gaffes he and Plugs shall make between now and election day.
Don’t get cocky. We have a LONG run and 3 debates before the election.
My bet is 8.
I wouldn’t say Obama is toast, he’s still got at least a 50/50 chance to win, sadly.
I figure Obama wins the entire NE, Mid-Atlantic states, Illinois, Minnesota, Iowa, California, Oregon, Washington and Hawai’i. He then has good chance of taking Nevada and New Mexico. Toss-ups are Virginia, Michigan, PA, Colorado, Wisconsin, Virginia and Ohio.
51 through 57.
I can see MN going ‘pubbie!
Al Franken does not make the big ‘o’ look good...
We’ve got a long ways to go. But at this point, I think it’s just going to be about clock management for McCain. The old Dean Smith four corners offense to run out the clock.
He essentially went on a 19-0 run in the last two weeks and leads Obama 70-53 with a quarter left in the game still to play.
I think the margins will be similar to Bush-Kerry in 2004 with the same states in the electoral column save for McCain maybe picking up one of either Wi, MN, Pa or MI.
As of today, this election could go either way though.
The landslide scenario:
Massachusetts, California, Rhode Island, New York, Maryland, Connecticut, DC , Vermont...that’s it.
Biden doesn’t carry his home state.
we still have a long way to go. the MSM can do a lot of damage between now and election day.
get ready for the all-out-assault by the campaign and the media.
He won’t carry Kansas thats for sure.
Oh, man. You don’t want to know where my mind went the second I saw that pic.
Long ago a fellow FReeper predicted, “he won’t get 10 states”.
Sounds good to me.
Glad you brought that up. Remember the 1977 NCAA final where Dean Smith slowed down to Four Corners too early and stole his own momentum away, giving away the game.
Zero! No, fifty!
WAY too early for this kind of thread.
Dude, I wish I had your optimism, but there are a LOT of dumb Americans, out there...
Don’t get me wrong, it seems the wheels are really starting to come off Obama’s Campaign now, but the liberal-media will do whatever they can to put this jerk in office!
Then again, if Barry keeps inserting his foot in his mouth, like he did tonight, then it may indeed be a LANDSLIDE!!!
Why the heck SHOULDN’T it be a landslide??? Palin at the BOTTOM of the ticket has more qualifications, than Obama at the TOP of the DEM ticket!!!
Wake up America!!!!!
Not even sure about New York — he wins the city and the Upstate voters turn out in droves to elect McCain/Palin. Upstate NY was Hillary country not Obama country for the Dems.
If not for coach Dean Smith's ill-advised decision to go to the Four Corners with 13:48 to go in the game, Carolina might have won.
As long as we are doing basketball analogies, let's be complete :-)
I’ll wager 10 on “What’s 11?” Alex!
If there is a God he only carries New York, California and the District of Columbia. If not, he’ll also carry Illinois and Delaware. Let’s not be over-confident here. Sarah is under attack. There are swarms of vermin going through garbage cans and city dumbs looking for filth. They mean to utterly destroy this jewel. She needs us and we need her.
Obama won’t carry Oklahoma either — he is now down by 38 points in the latest TV poll in Oklahoma. He opened two offices in Oklahoma which I could never figure out why — he never stood a chance here.
The Dem Rice challenging Senator Inhofe is down by about the same amount so we will return Senator Inhofe to the Senate.
Final tally: McCain - 385, Obama - 153.
Nope. Just one of many possibilities.
Ah, you beat me to it.
She’s not watching and getting what she needs to confront. The KOS kids are the only ones who get their spirit center Whacked.
I’ll go with 20 states plus D.C. going for Obama, with McCain/Palin winning with 278 electoral votes.
I’m basing that on current RealClearPolitics state averages assuming a 2% to 2.5% shift toward McCain either from the ‘Bradley effect’ or trend from now until the election.
Not a blow-out, but enough to do the job.
McCain will win by 70%, is my prediction.
I agree. It’s very close now, with momentum on our side. Things can change rapidly but I think the republicans will win it.
I would guess it’ll still be close, Obama will get at least 20 states.
Overconfidence is a sin.
Kick the muslim/communist while he is down! Don’t ever let him get up!
I guess his whole angle is:
Watch out, George Bush.
Except for economic policy, health care policy, tax policy, education policy, foreign policy and Karl Rove style politics, we're really going to shake things up in Washington.
Washington Post cartoon dated 9/5/08.......
Oh Maaaaannnnn!!! LOL!!!
I agree keep kicking him. Some of the dim sites are already realizing he is done for....when that happen....he is toast.
Don’t go calling the election in early September. Overnight is an eternity in politics. The McCain/Palin momentum needs to carry into November and complacency is going to help that be accomplished.
They will have a problem with a very strong work-force. The debt is huge yet that’s been in play since the 30’s. The kids at KOS and DU are a different lot that attacks self improvement and that Gaia tide will turn.
I’m betting California, Oregon, New York, Maine, Vermont, Mass, Conn, Rhode Island, Delaware, Maryland, Illinois.
So 11 states for an electoral count of 157.
McCain wins with 381.
That’s if trend continues how it has the last few weeks.
Ten states is my prediction. His campaign is sinking fast.
I live in Delaware (for 36 years). There is NO WAY that Biden will not carry Delaware (with its huge 3 EV’s) ;)
Remember 2006? Common wisdom on FR was RYMB and R’s win. Didn’t turn out so well.
Hopefully the country will come to its senses come election day.
Ack forgot DC. Put that in Obama’s column so +3/-3
If memory serves, I believe I said it in late March. McQueeg is still such a weak candidate overall that I've revised the forecast of states carried a bit.
I can see him carrying 15-16 states at the outside, on the sole assumption that McQueeg doesn't die or do anything too stupid before election day (such as talk about amnesty). Some of the states Osamabama loses might be quite surprising. Grandma Grandmole's state, for instance.
I also still say, from months ago, that Osamabama is THE most beatable candidate since Millard Fillmore. Only difference is that the Whigs were smart enough not to nominate M.F. for the presidency.
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