IBD/TIPP Poll 11/02/08 Re-Weighted to 2004 voter turnout: McCain 47.6%, Obama 44.4%

IBD/TIPP Poll ^ | November 2, 2008 | IBD/TIPP & Avacado

[avacado]

Okay... Just for fun, I re-weighted the Dem/Rep/Ind ratio to the actual voter turnout in 2004 of Dems 37%, Reps 37%, Inds 26%...

DRUMROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

McCain 47.59%
Obama 44.48%

TURNOUT WINS ELECTIONS!, NOT POLLS!!!

USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!

LET'S WIN THIS ONE FOR THE FOUNDING FATHERS!!!

[avacado]

If the MSM and the dirty thug Obama campaign can play the game of demoralize the other side, then so can we! If we get a good voter turnout like in 2004 then Obama is going DOWN IN FLAMES!!!

To all you Obama lurkers! The MSM and the pollsters lied to you and played fast and loose with the polling numbers of over sampling you nitwits!

Here is what the MSM kept you little nitwits in the dark about like good little mushrooms:

We have a FIRED up Republican and Conservative base! We have Democrats for America voting McCain/Palin! We have the PUMAs voting McCain/Palin! We have many of the Hillary voters voting McCain/Palin!

USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!, USA!!!

[RockinRight]

A more accurate weighting would be for the 2006 mid-term election.

[Rocko]

Go vote!

[bray]

Well done, nothing has changed since then except ACORN fraud and operation chaos.

PRay for W, McCuda and Our Troops

[onthelookout777]

I like your enthusiasm. As the leftist media self-destructs, maybe you could start your own network or talk show or something. I’d tune in!

[Ikemeister]

Did anyone notice the headline about the Zogby poll in USA TODAY? If was something like “Zogby Gets Back in Line”.

What I thought was amazing that there was something like a 10 point swing in Zogby’s one day polling numbers. These polls are really screwy. I think they are trying to account for the millions of fraudulent votes they know will be cast.

[avacado]

"A more accurate weighting would be for the 2006 mid-term election."

Nonsense! You know nothing more than I do. I weighed it to 2004 and that is mathematically factual!

[avacado]

LOL!!! Thanks!!! We all have reason to be excited!!! We are not only going to win on November 4th, we are going to put a nail in the coffin of Marxism in America!!!

[Chaguito]

Can’t agree with that. 2006 base was demoralized b/c of the poor performance of Republicans. What was the R turnout?

[avacado]

Pinging my FRiends...

[Crimson Elephant]

Doesn’t this mean that even with a Dem advantage of +4 McCain would likely win? In other words, the Obama “landslide” is going to take a shift of EPIC proportions in just 2 years.

I guess it is possible, but I just can’t buy it.

[Maverick68]

2006 was NOT a Presidential election...

[bray]

Agreed, 06 was the immigration debate and Rs stayed home. 04 or 00 are far better indicators of what is going on now. The base is fired up by Palin, PUMA, anti-Obama.

Pray for W, McCuda and Our Troops

[TNCMAXQ]

Is it realistic though to think the turnout will be even this year, as it was in 2004? Supposedly Bush’s unpopularity is going to make a difference. Hard to see how GOP turnout will be higher than expected when most in the media are essentially telling them “you have no chance. Stay home!” LOL. Have any analysts or pollsters actually tried to figure out what the breakdown in party turnout will be with some kind of scientific method? I suppose even that might not be accurate though.

[SlapHappyPappy]

Correct. Their has been a swing to the Dems, like it or not.

That said, race is the great unknown. It’s the one thing that anyone paying attention to can say they have seen people lie about in this election. When people are afraid to even discuss the election because a black person is in the room, something is wrong.

[SlapHappyPappy]

But, even since 2006, the disparity between self-identified Democrats and Republicans has grown.

It’s an unfortunate reality, but while the country may, in it’s heart be on the right, they do not seem to translate that to the voting booth of late.

[Retired Greyhound]

mid-term turnout is usually different from POTUS turnout.

I think the 2004 numbers, with a slight Dem advantage, would be better.

Shows how close things are.

[Defiant]

I disagree. In 2006, conservatives were mad at Bush and Republicans, and did not turn out enthusiastically, as they had in 2004. 2004 was rooted in support for Bush in time of war, and against defeatist Democrats.

Because of Sarah Palin, conservatives are back on board with the GOP for this election, especially as it has become clear to them that the Dem candidate is far more leftist than even John Kerry. I think the pattern will be more like 2004 from the conservative side, with greater turnout from black voters and with stepped up fraud efforts in selected locales. There will also be a large number of blue collar Kerry voters and PUMAs who will switch to McCain.

So, all in all, I think it is more like 2004 with a few, yet unknown variations. That is why we will have to go ahead and hold the election on Tuesday.

[o2bfree]

>they do not seem to translate that to the voting booth of late.

Do you have any examples that prove your point? I could argue your wrong. Sarah Palin’s crowds and John McCain’s crowds in total are surpassing the combined crowds of Obama bin Biden.

[jpthomas]

I live in Okaloosa County, Florida, one of the most Republican-leaning counties in the USA. (The county cast 77.7% of its vote for Bush in 2004.) Our Supervisor of Elections announced that we tripled the previous early voting record for this election. So the Republican turnout in this panhandle county looks to set a record if the early voting turnout trend continues through election day.