Yeah good analysis,it’s all there,who knows. Plenty of hot water I can tell you that.
Wow, the season is underway folks, wish y’all the best since this is just the start of the peak of the season, the next 6 weeks will be watched for sure.
A large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is primarily associated with a tropical wave interacting with a mid- to upper-level trough. This activity has become a little more concentrated over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico where surface pressures are beginning to fall. There are no signs of a surface circulation at this time and any additional development...if any...should be slow to occur. This system should moves toward the northwest over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. There is a low chance...less than 30 percent...of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours.