Skip to comments.What Chance Do We Have for a Brokered Convention? (Another Sound-Off Thread)
Posted on 12/03/2011 8:39:04 AM PST by TheRobb7
In the spirit of my last posting "Now That We've Crucified Every Candidate.... (Here's Your Chance FReeper Nation)" and due to the great discussion and fostering of ideas put forth by FReeperNation, here's some other ideas to bandy about as we close in on the Hawkeye Caucai (Rush's label):
1) What do you think are the chances of NONE of the candidates getting the magic number of delegates heading in to the convention in Tampa?
2) If that indeed happens, is it a good thing? Why or why not?
3) Finally, if it DOES happen, what ticket do you think will emerge from Tampa?
I put this to you, The Best Debate Society on Planet Earth.
God Bless FReeperNation!
Col. Alan West - Pres
RicK Perry - VP
Would probably win FL & TX for sure. (67 electoral votes)
How many folks really understand what a brokered convention is and how it works - beyond the very surface assumption that it means the primary results are not conclusive?
Is it really in our best interests to render a thorough vetting process moot for this cycle and perhaps others?
Lotta folks will love the idea of this happening for one reason or another, but be careful what you wish for!!!!
It could be the only thing that saves us from a Mitt Romney nomination. Even though I would NEVER vote for Romney I am curious what others would think of a Romney/Paul ticket.
Would they win?
Could the win?
I don’t care much for either man but you and I know that when Paul does not win the nomination, those votes are lost to the GOP, they will not support anyone else. He’s high enough in the polls to warrant serious discussion as a VP candidate.
The only hope is for a brokered convention. The leading candidates Newt and Romney are simply unacceptable, the other candidates have no chance of getting the nomination. I am hoping Rush starts Operation Republican Chaos and can get his listeners to vote for Bachmann, Santorum, etc. We need to get to the convention witn nobody having more than 40% support.
If we can get to the convention, someone like Paul Ryan may very well emerge as a person acceptable to both the TeaParty and the Republican establishment.
The way the primaries are staggered but leaning toward front loaded now, I doubt we will have one. There may be big split in the delegates at first, but as time goes on, candidates will drop out from either lack of support or they lack funds, this will hand some of the bigger delegate counts to candidates near the end and even push a split over the top. Here is the primary calendar.
As you can see, in January and February, we have a few that will make it look pretty divided but as time goes on, bigger states come into play and as we know, the more time that goes on, the fewer candidates there may be to choose from. In March, those who have lasted fight for Texas, April, New York, by June, you get California in play.
Voter also tend to follow herd mentality. Early primaries people look for a leader who is actually winning, if one or two emerge, the herd follows. With our primaries being more front-loaded than in the past, the herd will find a path to take rather quickly.
In other words, the chances are slim to none.
To the contrary, it would guarantee Mitt is the nominee. Once brokering starts, it’s all about the entrenched incumbent powers that be deciding, and he’s their choice.
>> Voter also tend to follow herd mentality. Early primaries people look for a leader who is actually winning, if one or two emerge, the herd follows. >>
This is provable by history of course - but really irritates me and confuses me. This is why I never get too riled up about what “they” at the “GOP” is doing. It is the herd mentality of the average American, not Karl Rove and a few sinister plotters in some smoke filled room - who gives us our candidates. Without the stupidity collectively of the herd mentality, attempts to manipulate would be useless. I think this causes a lot of misplaced anger around here and other message boards.
No chance. The Republican establishment owns you and your vote, lock, stock and barrel, and they’re going to give you whatever it is they think is best for you. Face it. Now, back to the plantation before they get out the “you’re just helping Obama” club and use it on you!
I think sometimes people assume the ‘smokey back rooms’ control everything but frankly, they are also just part of the herd. They aren’t going to strike out on their own. They may attempt to control things early, but they don’t go against the herd because power comes in mass.
That hardly matters when they've already rigged the system to the extent that one way or another they're going to get someone who will keep the game going just as it is.
That hardly matters when they’ve already rigged the system to the extent that one way or another they’re going to get someone who will keep the game going just as it is.
The GOP nominee will be one of the candidates in the race.
Make peace with that reality.
Is there a growing belief that picking one of the present candidates is drawing dead? The latest fad is ‘a nasty debater’. Looks like another 4 years of 25 million un/underempoyed and a few more wars to bankrupt the nation.
Every four years, the romantics among us start their pipe dreams of a “brokered convention”, whereby order will come out of chaos.
Ain’t gonna happen.
“Darkhorses”, “Favorite Sons” and such have long since passed into history.
As others have already noted, the early primaries will winnow out the under-financed and the under-supported. Those who were in those camps will shift allegiance to a remaining candidate. This process will continue through the next round of primaries, further reducing the field until maybe three candidates are standing entering Super Tuesday. The final nominee will, for all intents and purposes, be decided on that day.
I would rather that the nominee be other than Romney but, if it is, I WILL VOTE FOR HIM IN NOVEMBER.
The last gasp of a dying elephant.
the Latin plural “Cauci”
spell check please.
LOL. You are exactly right. The minute Palin made it official that she wasn't running for President, some of her more fanatical supporters kicked off this brokered convention nonsense.
It's not going to happen. One of the existing candidates will be nominated through the normal primary process.
the ronpaul delegates are the only stubborn factor that could prevent a majority. because of viability rules and winner take all states, doubt he has more than 5% of delegates. So brokered ... if the leading delegate guy stumbles at the finish and lose the last 5 primaries ... something along these lines could happen.
I am feeling increasingly estranged from FR. It’s too bad, because this is the first ‘home’ I ever had on the Internet, starting ten years ago. (I changed screen names slightly because my other one was getting too many unwanted pings that didn’t respond when I asked to be removed.)
I couldn’t stand the cult of personality around Obama because of the irrational focus on personal presentation in front of cameras. Intelligence, background, experience—these were what made people like RWR our heroes. This cycle I’m seeing I was wrong—many people weren’t really against the worship, they were just against the focus of that worship. They champion people who simply aren’t up to snuff because they “like” these people they’ve never met, as if they were supporting the person they want to be their friend.
I hated the Global Warming-style fake-religion of the left, the fixation on things like ‘first black president’ or ‘first woman nominee’ or whatever, and the blistering, personal rhetoric. We were the mature ones who didn’t want earmarks just for us, we wanted them cut across the board. We so wanted government programs reduced that we were willing to give up what we put into them (which, of course, is the only way out of these economic suicide pacts they tricked us into).
But we have Republican, and even conservative, versions of all of this garbage.
Now we come to the magical thinking of the democrats, who tried to change the rules of the 2000 election on election day and immediately after. We don’t like the candidates, so some are getting all psyched about this TV-style phony drama of a brokered convention! Wheeeee! How exciting!
As someone already asked, do the people cheering for this even know what a brokered convention MEANS?
We are so fixed on this idea that if we don’t get a candidate we can like or love, we are going to sit out the election and let Obama win. I think part of this is due to the mistaken idea of what the political landscape in this country truly is. As I’ve said before, remove Reagan from the picture and you will have a much clearer view of the landscape we ACTUALLY have had over the past half-century.
Wishin’ and hopin’ for some dramatic crowd-goosing moment when a savior arrives is Democrat Chris Matthews ‘insider’ crap, childish pageantry having NOTHING to do with the unromantic WORK of being president.
We have a process. These are the people with the guts to go through that process, which is why I find the bile aimed at Romney (and I’m not a supporter) so nauseating. I’m certainly far from perfect and occasionally lob bad one-liners about some folks, but overall I respect them all for TRYING, while some of us bask in the fantasy of those who’ve sat on the sidelines being PERFECT because they haven’t gotten themselves dirty.
These are our choices. None are perfect. All are better than Obama. Pick one, and support him/her. Then in the final election, support our nominee, or stand by and let one Obama vote go unanswered.
But enough with the silly Paul Wellstone memorial-style political drama.
In the spirit of my last posting "Now That We've Crucified Every Candidate...
Every convention is brokered. And the power brokers picked Romney 4 years ago. Any evidence to the contrary is pure illusion.
That is not to say that the power brokers can’t change their mind.
A brokered convention may be the only shot we have at nominating a conservative.
It would be fun, exciting, interesting, and unpredictable.
Therefore it will never happen.
Please take your blue pills and go back to sleep.
I aslo think that a lot of attempting to blame the “GOP Establishment” for the failure of their candidate is getting pretty old too.
Bachmann could have used her intelligence not unlike the way Newt is using his. But instead of making a libertarian argument, she pretty much decided to end her campaign in an usupportable rant bordering on slander.
People are looking for an alternative to Mitt Romney, but Newt is the only one that seems to have any lasting for now.
If you were to believe they “establishment” theory how could any one explain how Romney has been generally a second placer for so long?
We shouldn’t even be talking about this. In 2008, we told if we were to adopt the Obi-Wan Kenobi strategy, a Reaganesque republican would be elected in 2012. So much for theories.
Sadly, the cult of personality thing effects many people of all political ideologies. One would hope that conservatives are too smart for it, but alas they are not. Human nature is what it is, and it's never going to change.
Yup. For some, if their candidate doesn't win or otherwise washes out due to their own mistakes or incompetence, well then, it MUST be the establishments fault.
Here is some news, the Republican establishment isn't all that powerful. If a good, solid, charismatic candidate without glaring problems or gaping policy ignorance rises up and is supported by a majority of Republicans, there is absolutely nothing the "establishment" could do to stop that person. The problem is, some people think their own flawed candidate is that person. Usually, he or she just isn't particularly good and will fail to make the cut. When no one new can make it through the process, the most seasoned, skilled politician around with name recognition will usually win.
Not me. If I believed they were TRYING to get elected to an office for the purpose of helping their Country, I might agree with you. However, I believe they are mostly narcissists who are running for their own self aggrandizement. I believe most are corrupt and my personal freedom is one of the farthest things from their minds.
It is a game of money and power and those with little of either are unimportant.
There are millions of easier ways to get money and power.
Running for president of course involves ego—big deal. Every great achievement does.
The Republicans running want to help shape the country, not just bitch about it.
There is no other way to become the most powerful person in the world.
If I had the rosy view of reality you do, I would probably be a Democrat.
Paul Ryan. Yet another legislator.
I continue to be astonished that so many people throw common sense and established practices out the window when it comes to nominating someone for the most powerful chief executive position on the planet.
In the real world, one becomes CEO by demonstrating competence in management over many, many years. Just having the the right mindset, toeing the company line, and being a well-liked board member doesn't qualify. You have to have shown that you have the capability to actually run the organization.
Thank you, and everyone else, for your well-reasoned responses.
The one thing that would possibly even the playing field a bit would be to have a National Primary Day, with no cross-over voting allowed.
That would perhaps be a better solution to all the front-loading.
Thanls for contributing to the discussion.
I’ve followed your postings through the years and have appreciated your common-sense answers.
The tone has definitely changed here at FR, as I fear that subversive DU’ers have lied-in-wait for times such as this.
I hope that we can agree to debate without dividing.
>> The one thing that would possibly even the playing field a bit would be to have a National Primary Day, with no cross-over voting allowed. That would perhaps be a better solution to all the front-loading.>>
I think you’re close, but I think a better deal would be to have different states front loaded in each cycle so that no state or region becomes too important. The state of Iowa has simply gotten out of control with what is a cottage industry of literally blackmailing candidates into events up there. Folks don’t know it generally, but the Ames Straw Poll and all those other events in Iowa pour money into the coffers of the Iowa Republican Party (and Dem Party when they are in a contest too) and it’s all about Iowan’s getting money from all over the country.
Dirty little secret about all of that mess is the money, as if the stupid hamburger and pancake flipping weren’t bad enough.
And yet, I do think there’s a value in having the candidates having to meet folks on a retail basis for at least part of the process. Just not the same folks evry four years.
Well I hope you feel good about yourself now that you’ve established that you are above it all.
But tell me, when has anything been accomplished on a grand scale when those most responsible were not at least somewhat motivated by personal gain or fame or both? NEVER I suppose.
You know, its a little bit flimsy to claim to be a conservative economically and then worry about what is in it for folks who attempt certain things. Smacks of hypocrsiy.
But you shouldn’t mind. After all, we now know you are altruistic in motivation.
>> Here is some news, the Republican establishment isn’t all that powerful. If a good, solid, charismatic candidate without glaring problems or gaping policy ignorance rises up and is supported by a majority of Republicans, there is absolutely nothing the “establishment” could do to stop that person. >>
Whew. For a while, I’ve thought I was the only one who realized this!
Having some core beliefs and a knowledge of how to get things done is just as important. George Bush had lots of executive experience but other than being anti-islamic, he had no core beliefs. He caved to the Dems on prescription drug coverage, allowed spending to get out of control, failed to rein in Fannie and Freddie, etc.
Ryan isn’t seeking the office, even though many encouraged him to run. That is exactly the kind of person we need.
I have been hoping for a brokered convention.
I hope someone like DeMint.. OR Alan West OR Palin throw their hats in the ring on the second ballot. Not all of them, we’d probably get Romney if we split it too much.
That goes without saying, but having zero experience in running a large, hierarchical organization (as a president) is a recipe for mediocrity at best, and total disaster at worst.
I bet Newt Gingrich understands it!
Maybe you want to read up on the founders of our Country. Many risked, and lost, a great deal personally. Washington himself was a reluctant candidate for president, gained nothing personally from it, and then went home to continue his life as a citizen, not a celebrity.
Money and support flows to that candidate and makes it hard for another candidate to overtake the front-runner. The also-rans sputter out somewhere in the middle of the primary season. If something different happens this year it would be out of the ordinary and unexpected.
There'd be more chance of a brokered convention if there were someone who was obviously presidential material who wasn't in the race, a Grant or an Eisenhower. Palin? Probably not, but if there is a brokered convention, all bets are off.
Newt, Perry, or Bachmann. Newt is the least reliable IMO, but he's ahead (flavor of the month?) and I think he could beat Obama. I think Newt is more reliable than slippery Romney.
I wish Perry would quit shooting himself in the foot. Bachmann seems lost.
OK, now that I've thought through this thing in type, here's where I come out:
(last couple of minutes) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca5RIREYIuU&feature=related
My family. I don't want them hurt.
We want you Sarah. Sarah, you're hurt!
I'm OK. You go home and grow strong and straight and take care of this country.
We've got things for you to do.
America wants you. I know she does.
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