Posted on 12/27/2011 8:56:50 PM PST by TBBT
The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats.
and...
But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
Will this Ron Paul constituency actually show up? Are they being over-sampled?
I also find it hard to believe that Romney is going to do that well in Iowa.
But who am I to argue with polls.
Not good news for Not Romney and Not Ronulan fans...
Romney's ticket to success. Keep that Not Romney vote fractured.
Depressing...
Paul supporters I’ve seen are older (over 40) and are dopers and/or habitual conspiracy theorists. Every candidate, including McCain in ‘08, can get college students to be enthusiastic about them, but those kids don’t matter in the long run. No money and no persistence.
Polls showing Paul winning in Iowa are just discrediting themselves.
Let’s hope that you are right...
One interesting Number is when ask who did you caucus for last time Huck, Thompson, and McCain responce numbers match the numbers they got in 2008, but only 17% says they went for Romney last time (He got 25%), Meaning I think there can be a hidden vote there claiming right now they not going to show up that Romney can/need to reawake in the close days....
Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Who!?!??!
I am behind Newt. He’s not the best for me but I don’t see Michelle pulling it off by the time my state has it’s caucus. If it looks like she can pull it off, I’ll support her in my caucus.
No Mittens. No way..
(go ahead.. tell me I am voting for Obama.. And your a sell out for voting for Romney)
If I have this right, Ann Selzer will do one more poll before the caucus. She’s got a reputation for doing the best pre-caucus polling. Will be interesting to see how her findings compare with those of PPP and Ras.
Ex governor of Louisiana. The guy lost out in the primaries to David Duke. Yes, that David Duke.
"Public Policy Polling (PPP) is an American Democratic Party-affiliated polling firm" and "many PPP election polls were commissioned by the liberal website Dailykos."
Wow...I also feel depressed :(
Yes... I would like to believe that polls are full of it. Especially this one...
But - and I hate to say this - betting against them is risky business...
One thing is for certain... They will produce more news cycles in the coming days and it will damage perceptions/momentum for Newt and Not Romney/Ronulans in general.
Some will see these numbers as glimmers of hope for their favorite second tier candidate and will cling tightly to it. The end result will be to keep the Not Romney vote fractured.
Other interesting notes...
This result is almost identical to the last Iowa PPP poll. No real movement... Statistical noise?
Perry doesn’t seem to be benefiting from the money he is pouring into Iowa...
Five candidates relatively tightly bunched in the 20-10% range: Romney, Gingrich, Bachmann, Perry, and Santorum. (I do not count Paul, whose numbers are artificial, or Huntsman, who simply does not connect with voters at all.) Bachmann should be doing better in Iowa. I see her as having the least chance of the five at the nomination. One or both of the Ricks could move up. When we get down to three serious candidates, i.e., when a couple of the lower tier drop out, things will become clearer. Maybe by mid-February we’ll get down to a clear top two, Romney and . . . Perry? If I were placing a bet, I’d say Romney will end up with the nomination.
Public Policy Poll: Paul Leads Iowa With 23 Percent (Dec 19, 2011)
“Ron Paul has taken the lead, but it will be interesting to see if he can turn out his unique base of voters for the caucus,” said Dean Debnam, president of Public Policy Polling. “If any of the second-tier candidates see their supporters abandon them in the final two weeks, Mitt Romney is the most likely beneficiary and it could propel him to the win.”Color me skeptical.Gingrich’s Iowa campaign is “rapidly imploding,” PPP’s analysis said.
Of course, if Mr. Debnam et al say it long and loud enough, it may just turn out to be true. ;)
The effort the Paulywastes put into winning the Iowa caucus for Ron Paul just shows how useless “Iowa first” has become.
I think DEMOCRATS are playing in these numbers!!! (I have heard they can be a part of this.)
Hard to take this seriously , since PPP is owned by the DailyKos founder
Newt's plummet means that one or more of Bachmann, Perry or Santorum will likely pass Gingrich, who will end up 4th or lower.
Newt in 4th in Iowa will just about end it for him, as NH won't be any more hospitable.
Plan now, to latch onto the next RomNOT. Most likely that would be Santorum. At least Santorum, unlike Newt, is an actual conservative, and without the proclivity for mistresses.
This aint old school politics where the big money always sealed the deal. Perry couldn't buy a clue and his insider funds won't help him a whit.
Like Meg Whitman, when her illegal alien help she had running around her mansion, turned on her like rabid pit bulls, she couldn't buy the governors office with 160,000,000 of her own fortune.
Don’t get depressed...two weeks and no one remembers iowa.
His plummet, based on a PPP_ poll really?
Interesting... PPP is predicting 25% of the voters in a CLOSED Republican set of caucuses will be interlopers.
A truther, a bigot and a moonbat is poised to win the IA Caucuses.
If Paul is the nominee, I will never vote for him.
Plain fat-free yogurt would have much more passionate support than Romney.
Ron Paul? WTF? If they think NEWT is unelectable, wait till they get a load of Ron Paul.
PPP is run by The Daily Kooks isn’t it?
They get their marching orders from the Boob Tube. It's all about who spends the most money on flashy TV ads, comes up with the most rhetoric and propaganda, as well as, outright Bull Crap. And the majority of fools in Iowa eat it up and buy it, even if it is with their last dime.
America is pretty much, in the same condition and it is only getting worse. How else can the President call for another mere 1.2 TRILLION Dollars, to add to the 1 Trillion given earlier this year, to raise the Debt Ceiling to 16.5 Trillion, (It was at 14 T. last July) and nobody cares or even notices.
But what is most important it seems, is that Obama hits 50% again, and already has. Everything is peachy keen, fun and wonderful in LA, LA land, where we all hold hands, dance in the sun and sip our “Green” (energy) Tea.
This is just a small taste of what lies ahead in the coming year.
Will the Ron Paul constituency show up? Absolutely.
If you think otherwise than you have never met a Ron Paul supporter.
If Iowa goes looney tunes, they’re done as a credible force in the primaries. It may not matter though, because if romney gets the nomination, the GOP will be sleeping with the Whigs as a party.
Yours is an eye-opening post.
I believe you may be correct. Consider there’s been talk that dems are attempting to crossover vote in a sort of “operation chaos” in GOP primaries - by voting for Paul.
If Paul goes third party, perhaps it would be worse for dems.
Especially now with at least one mainstream GOP candidate (Gingrich) finally getting assertive.
I like this new Newt.
They have also bussed in support, since this is an open primary. They don’t have the people or the resources to do it in all the states. This is their big chance to get the World’s attention, since they think it will validate their Kooky World view.
I think they will turn third party after Iowa, and they can no longer manipulate the vote in all the other states.
(These are the same idiots who supported Ralph Nader; Notice the same Marxist tone?)
There should be four tickets out of Iowa this time as Paul is not likely to have long-term viability.
We'll see, there are always surprises.
My prediction is that Bachmann is on her way down and Santorum may be upticking a bit. Newt may be struggling and on his way down.
Yea, it's up for grabs.
I agree. I hope the 40% who are not saying much and remain uncounted, rise up and put an end to this utter insanity.
But since Ralph Nader has retired, his kooky following needed something to do. And RUN Paul is exactly what they have been looking for to replace Nader.
Your analysis is not even close........
Iowa has been completely compromised by Democrats, thanks to their stupid “Open Primary” system. In the rest of the country, Newt still has a solid lead. If the same thing happens in SC, Florida and beyond, then the FIX is truly in.
Perry is finished. The support he has, is mostly dedicated followers who will stay till the bitter end, but he won’t pick up any new supporters. It’s way too late for that. He simply does not have what it takes to win over voters.
Perry’s only hope at this point, is to fly to Wasilla Alaska, have some beers with Todd, then find his eloquence for once and convince Sarah Palin to endorse him.
I seriously cannot imagine a ticket, any ticket which would more completely energize the GOP than the two of them.
Perry would completely neutralize the GOP women who “don’t like Sarah Palin”, and Palin would demolish any reluctance those of us who have doubts Perry is up to it, might have.
Really Perry / Palin could be the solution to everything wrong in the GOP right now.
Don’t see that happening though.
I see desperation in the Perry camp, with Perry now acting like Mitt - sending his pod people out to slime Gingrich.
Sad.
Hello it’s all over the Internet
These Paul bots are who are conducting operation chaos in IA !
They want to smear the GOP using this fraud and madman Ronny as the face of the GOP !
The same thing is going on on NH which is a
Open primary were Dems are registering as Indies in Droves !
The Idiots in the GOP leadership is getting Punked and
Outmoved as usual !
Sorry my iPhone dropped the word DEMOCRATS from my post!
This whole Paul bot thing has been a Code Pink / radical left wing
Operation chaos .
It’s easy to get register to vote in the IA straw vote nonsense and the Axelrod is organizing this phony lunatic Paul to win to discredit the GOP
People are aware that our foreign adventures have put America on very shaky ground. Soon everyone will be an isolationist out of necessity. We have no more resources to fuel the neocon agenda.
If we assume Paul does not have long-term viability, that is the reason there may be four tickets out of Iowa this year.
I am in no way predicting a Perry win for the nomination, as I have no clue and I agree it looks like Romney has the inside track.
BUT Newt is not in a good long-term position right now. His numbers are consistently falling and he has a money problem.
A case can be made that this will come down to Perry/Romney. I am making no prediction.
D.C. is full of crazies. We need to return to a Constitutionaly mandated Government and curtail foreign adventures. We need to slash the number of areas where govt. feels entitled to interfere in our lives and commerce.
Go Iowa, Go Paul. I’m very pleased all of the hysterics of the anti-Paul crowd is failing stop this awareness.
In my opinion, it has little to do with Paul and a lot to do with his platform.
If I was a neocon dead-ender I would call names and wail too... so feel free.
This sounds good BUT what do you do about the Muzzies who fly their planes into our buildings?
In the past the only people I’ve ever spoken to who loved Paul were libertarian Democrats. Maybe things have changed, but I doubt it.
We defend ourselves. We have a much better chance at that if we focus our efforts to our own shores. We must look at history to see what can happen if we over-extend.
Many accounts have America and the World near economic collapse. A weakened America would make an easy target for adversaries.
Please do not assume that isolationism equals weakness. In my opinion, given the state of things, it equals prudence.
I would love it if I thought we could play ostrich and put our heads in the sand. That is not going to protect us one bit.
The Ron Paul plan calls for lots of crossed fingers.
I’m not for a reduction in intelligence and weapons. I am for a reduction in Foreign deployments.
Leaders across the world for Thousands of Years have had to limit foreign ambitions to what they could afford.
I haven’t seen any solution to the very real problem of limited resources. We cannot simply keep on printing money.
How does anyone believe we can afford constantly having combat troops deployed overseas. First we bomb then we pay for the rebuild. The money is all gone. It’s a very real problem.
Ok, the RCP average then. Anyway you look at it, Gingrich is going down.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_primary-1588.html
You’re wrong. This is very good news for Romney. He was not going to win IA anyway, but the key for him was to keep the “not-Romney” vote from coalescing around one opponent. So he and the drive-bys successfully destroyed Perry, Cain, and Newt. There is no one left. Mitt will be the candidate now unless something remarkable happens, like Palin jumps into the race.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.