Skip to comments.Paul maintains his lead (PPP Iowa Poll: Paul-24, Mitt-20, Newt 13, Bachmann-11)
Posted on 12/27/2011 8:56:50 PM PST by TBBT
The last week and a half has brought little change in the standings for the Iowa Republican caucus: Ron Paul continues to lead Mitt Romney by a modest margin, 24-20. Newt Gingrich is in 3rd at 13% followed by Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry and Rick Santorum at 10%, Jon Huntsman at 4%, and Buddy Roemer at 2%.
Paul's strength in Iowa continues to depend on a coalition of voters that's pretty unusual for a Republican in the state. Romney leads 22-20 with those who are actually Republicans, while Paul has a 39-12 advantage with the 24% who are either independents or Democrats. GOP caucus voters tend to skew old, and Romney has a 34-12 advantage with seniors. But Paul's candidacy looks like it's going to attract an unusual number of younger voters to the caucus this year, and with those under 45 he has a 35-11 advantage on Romney. The independent/young voter combo worked for Barack Obama in securing an unexpectedly large victory on the Democratic side in 2008 and it may be Paul's winning equation in 2012.
Paul continues to have much more passionate support than Romney. 77% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 71% for Romney. Among voters who say their minds are completely made up Paul's lead expands to 7 points at 28-21. If Paul's lead holds on through next Tuesday it appears he'll have won this on the ground- 26% of voters think he's run the strongest campaign in the state to 18% for Bachmann and 10% for Santorum with just 5% bestowing that designation to Romney. There's also an increasing sense that Paul will indeed win the state- 29% think he'll emerge victorious with 15% picking Romney and no one else in double digits.
(Excerpt) Read more at publicpolicypolling.com ...
People are aware that our foreign adventures have put America on very shaky ground. Soon everyone will be an isolationist out of necessity. We have no more resources to fuel the neocon agenda.
If we assume Paul does not have long-term viability, that is the reason there may be four tickets out of Iowa this year.
I am in no way predicting a Perry win for the nomination, as I have no clue and I agree it looks like Romney has the inside track.
BUT Newt is not in a good long-term position right now. His numbers are consistently falling and he has a money problem.
A case can be made that this will come down to Perry/Romney. I am making no prediction.
D.C. is full of crazies. We need to return to a Constitutionaly mandated Government and curtail foreign adventures. We need to slash the number of areas where govt. feels entitled to interfere in our lives and commerce.
Go Iowa, Go Paul. I’m very pleased all of the hysterics of the anti-Paul crowd is failing stop this awareness.
In my opinion, it has little to do with Paul and a lot to do with his platform.
If I was a neocon dead-ender I would call names and wail too... so feel free.
This sounds good BUT what do you do about the Muzzies who fly their planes into our buildings?
In the past the only people I’ve ever spoken to who loved Paul were libertarian Democrats. Maybe things have changed, but I doubt it.
We defend ourselves. We have a much better chance at that if we focus our efforts to our own shores. We must look at history to see what can happen if we over-extend.
Many accounts have America and the World near economic collapse. A weakened America would make an easy target for adversaries.
Please do not assume that isolationism equals weakness. In my opinion, given the state of things, it equals prudence.
I would love it if I thought we could play ostrich and put our heads in the sand. That is not going to protect us one bit.
The Ron Paul plan calls for lots of crossed fingers.
I’m not for a reduction in intelligence and weapons. I am for a reduction in Foreign deployments.
Leaders across the world for Thousands of Years have had to limit foreign ambitions to what they could afford.
I haven’t seen any solution to the very real problem of limited resources. We cannot simply keep on printing money.
How does anyone believe we can afford constantly having combat troops deployed overseas. First we bomb then we pay for the rebuild. The money is all gone. It’s a very real problem.
Ok, the RCP average then. Anyway you look at it, Gingrich is going down.
You’re wrong. This is very good news for Romney. He was not going to win IA anyway, but the key for him was to keep the “not-Romney” vote from coalescing around one opponent. So he and the drive-bys successfully destroyed Perry, Cain, and Newt. There is no one left. Mitt will be the candidate now unless something remarkable happens, like Palin jumps into the race.
PPP is a poll conducted by democrats. Disregard anything in it. They want Paul and Romney to beat Gingrich, so they constantly show Gingrich losing. This same PPP also has
Obama winning SC and Florida and the majority of Southern states. It’s a joke. Report it and let Faux News run with it is their motto.
I find it hard to believe Newt is doing that poorly. Of course, every time I turn on Fox News they’re savagely attacking him and putting Romney on a pedestal. Criticizing Newt’s ads as “negative” like he’s supposed to just take the garbage aimed at him.
These polls are still all over the place. If Newt can come out 2nd it will keep the momentum going for SC and Florida. If he comes in like 3rd or 4th, I’m afraid, he’ll begin to really implode in the south. He’s already losing support. He may still pull it out, but remember Romney and Paul will start their big money assaults in those states.
On one hand I just don’t understand how people can be so manipulated by a fake like Romney. On the other hand, he has put so much money into his campaign and really isn’t nearly as successful as he should be. So at least not all the people are being fooled all the time.
Come on, Newt!
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.