Skip to comments.Why Newt May Be More Unelectable Than Santorum
Posted on 02/18/2012 12:25:54 PM PST by OrangeHoof
I keep reading on FR that Rick Santorum is unelectable (although Rasmussen's latest poll has him just 6 points behind Obama in a head-to-head matchup) as they try to justify why they are supporting Newt Gingrich.
Santorum is definitely less well-known than the former Speaker, but that's the problem for Newt. He is well-known and not well-liked.
Talking Points Memo has a rolling track of Gingrich's favorable/unfavorable numbers in national polls. His favorables are now consistently in the 20-25% range since the Florida primary but his unfavorables have topped 60% in two of the last three polls (click link below).
On 2/13, CNN had Newt with 25% favorable and 63% unfavorable. CBS/NYT has Newt with 16% favorable and 54% unfavorable. PPP has Newt with 24% favorable and 62% unfavorable.
Okay, these are all left-wing polling firms but is it wise to think they are all wrong? Even at his peak, Newt was 40% favorable and 47% unfavorable back before Iowa. Can we expect someone with such high negatives to beat Obama in the fall?
Now, the media and Mitt Romney are taking their shots at Rick Santorum but, for now, his polling is much better.
There have been five polls since February 12th and his favorables average 32.6% in those polls and his unfavorables average 35.6%. His favorables were higher than his unfavorables in two of the five polls and his margin of difference was never more than 10%. In fact, his worst showings are in the two openly Democrat polls (PPP and Greenberg) which likely oversample Dems.
Gingrich had all of the 1990s to be tarred and feathered by the media. Most voters know who he is and their minds are made up. Santorum, however, is a blank slate to many of them and he has his chance to make his case to America about whether he best represents their values over Obama's. It's probable that Santorum's negatives will go up as he goes through the vetting process and the media anal exam but his favorables are likely to climb too if he sticks to his message on freedom and fiscal responsibility.
Since the links didn’t come out:
What a great rebuttal! How about some facts next time? Or is that above your level of discourse?
How much money has it taken to get Newt’s unfavorables so high? Think about it and include Drudge.
I don’t know why, but your response is priceless. I laughed pretty good.
As one of the greatest, most effective leaders in conservative history, Gingrich got the full Palin treatment, I used to keep a collection of all the news magazines on my bar and I would splay them out when Gingrich came up during discussions, every one of them were like horror magazine covers, with Speaker Gingrich as the monster.
Those magazines were from the first 6 weeks of Gingrich becoming a national figure, they were his very first “introduction” to the public, they were not from a year or two down the road. After saturating the public with that poison, the media then started polling on the Speaker, and creating news on that negative polling.
We had never seen approval polling on Speakers before that I recall. How does a Speaker effect his national approval rating? He is only a Congressman, and the work he does as Speaker cannot move national polls up or down, he isn’t a President that can make dramatic national decisions, and disperse huge funds and make decisions to go to Mars, or invade a country.
Every true conservative is going to start out with terrible poll numbers with the general public, because until he becomes the nominee, he is simply a punching bag for the GOP-e and the media, and the Democrat party, but once the general starts, then suddenly the Republican Presidential candidate is on equal footing, suddenly he represents the Republican party, and 100s and 100s of millions of dollars will be spent to sell him to the public.
The window when it becomes about campaigning and mass advertising is the time when the old polling data becomes meaningless, because it is a several months window, when the conservative becomes equal with the media.
OK , YOU asked for it, here's your "facts":
I’m going with Santorum.
Oh yes, poor downtrodden Newt.
Gingrich ‘Deeply Upset’ That Scozzafava Endorsed Democrat After He’d Supported Her (ROFL)
Newt: “I am, however, deeply dissapointed that she has chosen to back Owens over Hoffman.”
Jarrett: Dems want Scozzafava nod (Newt? Newt?)
Right To Work Prez Calls Out Newt’s Hypocrisy
Group Calls on Gingrich to Rescind Endorsement of Scozzafava
Who Lied to (RINO) Newt Gingrich?
Newt Gingrich - “King of the RINOs”
Gingrich: A Vote for Hoffman Is a Vote for Pelosi
Farewell To GOP’s Squishy Gingrich Wing
Are you kidding me?
Gingrich calls GOP support for Hoffman a ‘purge’
Newt on Greta talking about Scozzafava
Newt Gingrich: Doug Hoffman support a ‘mistake’
I am not going to trash either Newt or Santorum, but needless to say, Santorum has not been yet subjected to the full force of the Romney attack machine the way Newt was during Florida. After that happens (and you know it will), we'll see how Newt and Santorum's favorables and unfavorables stack up. Until then, it is pretty much pointless to try and look at such now as any kind of predictive indicator of Newt versus Santorum as the best choice against Romney and then Obama.
How much did obamney’s $18M spent on negative Newt ads contribute to unfavorable? How unfavorable is $4 and $5 gas which Newt will reduce to under $2.50? What’s favorable about obamney? Santorum has just started to be on the receiving end of obamney negative ads. Newt has the day one platform to start changing back everything the commie usurper put in place.
Apparently, so are many others.
That really is a lame line of attack on Santorum. The choices sucked across the board in 2008. I don’t begrudge anyone’s 2008 endorsement, given the options.
Santorum’s favorables are already higher than Gingrich’s and his unfavorables are at least 20% less. A lot can change between now and November but, at this point, I’d rather be rallying behind the conservative with 30% negatives than the one with 60% negatives.
I don’t care who has what numbers. I had wanted Perry as a first choice and Gingrich was my second choice. Perry stepped out, so that leaves me 100% behind Gingrich.
I do not like Santorum and I don’t care how good his numbers are or may get. For me, if Gingrich quits—I no longer support any candidate—I will only be voting against Obama.
He’s my third choice line in the sand candidate after Bachmann and Cain. I go no further than this.
After that, the GOP is on its own.
We’re well past the point where any particular President could resuscitate America.
They’re going to spend a billion dollars demonizing whoever is the eventual republican nominee.
The current numbers are just a fluke of how much focus fire they’ve gotten so far in the media.
It depends on when those endorsements came. Rick Perry endorsed the liberal cross-dressing, pro-abort Rooti Giuliani at a time when conservatives Fred Thompson and Duncan Hunter were still in the race.
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